Tens of thousands of jobs at risk in Wales if Reform wins power, says TUC Cymru

Martin Shipton

TUC Cymru analysis has found that more than 42,000 jobs in manufacturing, public services and the charity sector could be at risk from Reform’s policies if the party took power in Wales and the UK.

The warning comes after the unions’ umbrella body modelled the impact on jobs of all the main parties’ policies on Net Zero.

According to the analysis, an estimated 39,873 manufacturing jobs in Wales could be at risk under Reform’s policy to end investment into clean industrial upgrades.

In its Senedd manifesto, Reform promises to “scrap net zero in devolved policy” and “abolish the 2030 and 2040 devolved Net Zero targets and slash reporting requirements to the bare legal minimum” – actions that are likely to put an end to Welsh Government support to businesses to decarbonise.

Similarly, at a UK level, Reform have claimed that they could save up to £225bn over five years by scrapping all projects related to Net Zero policies.

In December 2025 TUC Cymru launched a five-point plan for the Welsh and UK governments to collaborate to protect Welsh industry:

* Cut electricity costs. Deliver energy independence to reduce dependence on Putin and volatile gas prices, and strengthen and bring forward measures to reduce industrial electricity costs like the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS), aiming for price parity with EU competitors.

* Invest in clean industrial upgrades. Expand and accelerate public investment into clean industrial upgrades and infrastructure so that Welsh industry is competitive. This should include dedicated funding from the National Wealth Fund.

* Fix trade. Implement trade policy designed to prevent offshoring of jobs and emissions, by promoting domestic industry and preventing the dumping of cheap, high carbon goods and materials.

* Use Procurement Power to buy Welsh. Make strategic procurement decisions and leverage the £700bn planned for major infrastructure to use Welsh-made steel, cement and materials.

* Strengthen Worker Voice. Industrial workers should be a critical delivery partner in the transformation and protection of our industries. Government should embed worker voice into site and sectoral transition planning at every level, including through a Futureproofing Industry Strategy.

Protect jobs

TUC Wales’ analysis says: “All political parties need to improve their policies to protect industrial jobs, but the analysis shows that Reform’s current positions are the most likely to push Welsh industry over the brink, followed by those of the Conservative Party.

“This is because they are the furthest from meeting the Save British Industry campaign’s five-point plan.

“Reform’s plans to slash public investment by £225bn will starve Welsh industry of investment and deny factories the upgrades they need. This would threaten the automotive jobs in Deeside and Merthyr Tydfil that need urgent investments to remain competitive.

“Reform’s plans to get rid of domestic clean power and to rely on imported gas will drive up electricity prices. Higher energy bills threaten the plastic, paper and metals jobs in places like Tremorfa and Deeside.

“Farage described Musk’s DOGE and ‘mass lay-offs’ as a ‘blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond’. Reform’s plan to slash public spending by £40bn a year will shrink the power of Welsh and British governments to purchase British and Welsh products. This would hit the Welsh steel jobs that benefit from public procurement.

“Reform’s stated goal of cutting workers’ rights, including scrapping employment laws, will prevent workers from shaping their own future. Reform consistently opposed the Employment Rights Act, and could repeal it. To defend and protect Welsh industry, workers need more rights, not less.” While TUC Cymru’s analysis of the Senedd manifestos confirms this picture, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Labour all promise to continue such policies and support workers into the jobs of the future.

Public servants

A further 1,035 jobs across Wales are at risk from Reform’s promise to cut the number of public servants working for the Welsh Government and its agencies, according to TUC Cymru.

In their Senedd manifesto, Reform has promised “to target a 10% reduction in civil service headcount over the Senedd term”.

And in another blow to the Welsh economy, a significant number of jobs at charities and third sector organisations are under threat, thanks to Reform’s Senedd manifesto promise to “end public funding for NGOs and charities that operate as political campaigning organisations under the guise of promoting civil society”.

It is not known how Reform will define “political campaigning”, but if even one in 10 of Wales’ third sector workers lost their jobs, around 1,300 people would be out of work.

TUC Cymru says that a particular threat to the third sector is Reform’s promise to put aside the target of one million Welsh speakers by 2050 – a move that would put at risk the work of the Mentrau Iaith (language enterprises), which employ around 300 people around Wales.

According to the latest figures, 5,391 people work for the Welsh Government. On top of that, according to TUC Cymru’s analysis of annual reports, 4,959 people work in civil service roles in non-departmental public bodies core funded by the Welsh Government.

While Reform promises to cut the number of civil servants by 10%, Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Labour have not committed to any such cuts.

TUC Cymru has listed the bodies that would be impacted by Reform’s cuts, together with the latest publicly available figures relating to the number of people they employ:

* Senedd Commission 485;

* National Library 202;

* Natural Resources Wales 2,462;

* Museum Wales 610;

* Medr 90;

* Estyn 142;

* Ombudsman Wales 69;

* Audit Wales 308;

* Dysgu 16;

* Welsh Language Commissioner 100;

* Children’s Commissioner 23;

* Sport Wales 150;

* Education Workforce Council 56;

* Older People’s Commissioner 17;

* Social Care Wales 229;

* Welsh Government 5,391.

In total TUC Cymru estimates that around 42,208 jobs in Wales could be at risk from Reform’s policies. This comprises 39,873 manufacturing jobs, 1,035 public servants and 1,300 third sector workers.

Secure jobs

TUC Cymru Acting General Secretary Linsey Imms said: “Life in Wales should be affordable. That means having a good, secure job with pay that keeps up with rising prices.

“Reform’s policies on net zero would turn back the clock and revive Thatcher’s industrial destruction. And their policies on the public sector and how charities would be able to operate could put hundreds of Welsh jobs at risk.

“With the cost of living still impacting thousands of families in Wales, we can’t afford job losses of over 42,000.

“Reform UK needs to explain how it would mitigate job losses in industry, public services and the charity sector, if it enacted its proposed policies at Wales and UK levels.”

Reform UK was invited to respond, but did not do so.