More bad news for Welsh Labour as party predicted to slump to fourth place and below in some seats at a general election

Martin Shipton

Cardiff West Labour MP Alex Barros-Curtis would not simply lose his seat if a Westminster general election was held now – he’d come fourth, according to a new poll.

The website UK Polling Report has released a number of Welsh constituency projections based on recent polling that suggests Labour would be ejected from seats it has held for decades.

In Cardiff West, where ordinary Labour members were denied a say in who would succeed former MP Kevin Brennan after he unexpectedly announced his decision to stand down shortly before the last general election in 2024, Barros-Curtis was parachuted in as the candidate by the central party. Close to Keir Starmer, ABC, as he is known, had set up a company to support Starmer’s party leadership campaign in 2020 following Jeremy Corbyn’s resignation.

Before becoming an MP, he was executive legal director of the Labour Party, in which capacity he pursued legal action against a number of former left-wing Labour officials, who were accused of leaking an unpublished report about allegations of antisemitism in the party. The case was dropped by Labour in the run-up to the 2024 general election. The book The Fraud by investigative journalist Paul Holden exposed ABC’s involvement in an alleged plot to expel left-wing members of the party.

According to UK Polling Report, would only secure fourth place in Cardiff North with 13.2% of the vote, behind Reform (28.4%), Plaid Cymru (24.86%) and the Green Party (19.18%)

In Llanelli the current Labour MP Dame Nia Griffith would also come fourth with just 6.22% of the vote, The seat would be won by Reform (44.77%), followed by Plaid Cymru (27.24%) and the Green Party (15.11%).

In Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr, where Labour left-winger Steve Witherden was a surprise victor in 2024, the party would drop to sixth place and just 5.87% in a general election held now. Ahead would be Reform (36.01%), Plaid Cymru (16.72%), Green (15.93%), Liberal Democrat (15.29%) and Conservative (10.11%). Labour’s deposit would be saved by less than 1%.

In Torfaen, Labour’s Cabinet Office Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds would lose his seat to Reform by a margin of 38.54% to 17.34%.

In Caerphilly, Labour’s Chris Evans would drop to fourth with 14.26% of the vote behind Reform (35.47%), Plaid Cymru (24.55%) and Green Party (16.12%),

Monmouthshire’s sitting Labour MP Catherine Fookes would also slip to fourth place with 16.13%, behind the Conservatives (27.53%), Reform (27.07%) and the Green Party (17.05%).

Ruth Jones

Newport West and Islwyn Labour MP Ruth Jones is projected to lose her seat to Reform by 36.79% to 18.2%.

Neath and Swansea East MP Carolyn Harris would lose to Reform by 39.94% to 17.74%.

In Swansea West, UK Pensions Minister Torsten Bell would lose his seat to Reform by 33.35% to 17.93%. Bell has also been described as a “parachute” candidate, having no previous connection to Swansea and not going through the normal selection process because former MP Geraint Davies was banned from standing because of a pending disciplinary hearing following allegations of sexual harassment.