More Welsh voters back keeping new Senedd voting system

Mark Mansfield

More voters in Wales support keeping the Senedd’s new electoral system than returning to the previous method of voting, according to one of the most detailed studies of May’s election.

The Welsh Election Study 2026, based on a survey of more than 10,000 people across Wales, found that 35.2% of respondents favoured retaining the new closed-list proportional representation system introduced for this year’s election, compared with 30.6% who wanted to return to the previous system of voting for individual candidates.

The research, led by academics from Aberystwyth University and Swansea University, also found that while understanding of the new voting system improved during the election campaign, most voters still did not fully understand how it worked.

Some 58% of respondents said they did not know how the new system translated votes into seats. Despite this, nearly seven in 10 (69%) said they found it easy to cast their vote, while 58% believed the system treated political parties fairly.

The findings are likely to add fresh evidence to the debate over electoral reform following the first Senedd election fought under the new system.

The study also suggests tactical voting played a significant role in the election.

Around a quarter of respondents said they had voted for one party primarily to stop another from winning in their constituency. Researchers said most of this tactical voting appeared to benefit Plaid Cymru, which emerged as the largest party in both votes and seats.

The survey also explored voters’ attitudes towards political parties.

Respondents expressed the most positive feelings towards Plaid Cymru and the Wales Green Party, while attitudes towards Reform UK were more likely to be associated with emotions such as fear, anger and irritation.

Mixed views

Researchers also found mixed views about politics more broadly.

More than four in ten people (41%) believed the election campaign divided people in their local communities rather than bringing them together.

The study also found widespread concern about local economic decline, with many respondents saying they believed their communities had deteriorated in recent years.

While people generally felt their local councils cared about the areas they served, confidence was much lower in the Welsh Government and lower still in the UK Government. Fewer than one in ten respondents believed the UK Government cared about the places where they lived.

Dr Anwen Elias of Aberystwyth University, who co-leads the Welsh Election Study, said the level of support for the new voting system might surprise many observers.

“The support for the new voting system may surprise many. It will no doubt influence the ongoing debate about future possible electoral reforms,” she said.

“While many people found the new voting system straightforward to use, understanding of how it worked remained limited.

“Overall, the 2026 Senedd election revealed a mixture of engagement, uncertainty and frustration among voters in Wales.”

The research found that the NHS, the cost of living, housing and jobs were the issues voters cared about most during the election campaign. However, around a third of respondents said they were unsure which political party they trusted most to deal with those challenges.

Unconvinced

Dr Bettina Petersohn of Swansea University said many voters remained unconvinced that political change would improve their local areas.

“Despite the change that people in Wales voted for in this election, many do not expect that the new Welsh Government will make a difference to their local area,” she said.

The Welsh Election Study 2026 is a four-year project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. The findings are based on a representative Ipsos UK survey of 10,001 adults aged 16 and over, conducted between 26 February and 3 June 2026.