New model to forecast space weather is on the way led by Welsh academics

New efforts to forecast space weather with greater accuracy and reliability are being led by Aberystwyth University academics.

The scientists are aiming to shed new light on the workings of the Sun’s magnetic field, particularly within its outer atmosphere, known as the corona.

A longstanding and major scientific challenge, unlocking the corona’s secrets could help predict events like solar storms and eruptions, which can disrupt satellites, power grids and global communications systems.

By improving the depiction of the Sun’s magnetic field, the enhanced maps generated by the project will significantly boost the precision of space weather predictions – especially in pinpointing the timing of disruptive solar events that affect Earth.

Professor Huw Morgan from Aberystwyth University’s Department of Physics is leading the project.

He said: “Current models of the Sun’s magnetic field rely solely on data from the Sun’s surface, but the corona remains a mystery in many ways.

“This project will harness data from coronagraphs – special instruments that block out the Sun’s intense light – to reveal the Sun’s outer atmosphere. By studying patterns in this data, we will be able to adapt existing models and offer the scientific community and space weather forecasters a more accurate picture of the Sun’s magnetic field.

“This has important implications not just for scientific research, but for operational forecasting at institutions like the UK Met Office. Improved forecasting will help infrastructure operators to act to mitigate the problems caused on Earth by solar activity.”

The project, ‘CorMag: A magnetic model of the corona with upper boundary observational constraints’ is funded by the Science and Technology Facilities Council.