New poll gives Labour big lead in Senedd race, putting them one seat short of a majority

A new poll has given Welsh Labour a big lead in the Senedd race, just two weeks away from polling day.

The Opinium poll for Sky News puts Labour on 29 seats, one short of a majority, the Conservatives on 19, Plaid Cymru on 10, the Liberal Democrats on one and UKIP losing all but one seat.

The projection if accurate would see Welsh Labour buck a series of negative and declining polls for UK Labour.

It stands in stark contrast to recent YouGov polls which placed Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck and Mark Drakeford’s party losing eight seats, including his own.

The Opinium poll suggests that in the constituencies, with changes on the 2016 result:

LAB: 40% (+5)

CON: 30% (+9)

PC: 19% (-2)

LDEM: 4% (-4)

In the regions, with changes on the 2016 result:

LAB: 38% (+6) CO

CON: 27% (+7)

PC: 19% (-2)

GRN: 5% (+2)

LDEM: 4% (-3)

UKIP: 2% (-11)

The poll also asked for top choice as First Minister, with Mark Drakeford on 29%, Andrew RT Davies on 10%, and Adam Price on 8%.

35% would vote ‘yes’ to independence, with don’t knows removed, the poll projects. 46% of Labour supporters would vote for independence, the poll suggests.