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New poll shows majority of Labour voters would back Welsh independence

03 Sep 2020 4 minute read
Picture by Lluniau Lleucu / Yes Cymru

A majority of those who voted Labour at the 2019 General Election would back Welsh independence if a referendum was held tomorrow, according to a new YouGov poll.

With the figures adjusted to remove those who refused to answer, didn’t know or said that they wouldn’t vote, 51% of respondents who voted for Labour said they would vote for Welsh independence with 49% against.

The polling also showed that the majority in Wales believed the power to call a referendum on Welsh independence should lie with the Senedd rather than Westminster.

With those who didn’t know removed, 55% of respondents backed the Senedd having such powers with 45% against.

The overall number in favour of independence has stayed the same with 32% in favour and 68% against.

There was also strong support for independence among younger voters, with 43% of those in the 18-24 year old category backing independence, and 42% of those in the 25-49 year old category saying that they would vote yes.

The questions asked in the poll commissioned by YesCymru was ‘If there was a referendum held tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?’



A spokesperson for Labour for an Independent Wales said that the new polling numbers of Labour supporters show an incredible increase – not just on the last poll but on the last 3-years.

“In 2017, support for independence within Welsh Labour supporters was only at around 20% but now it is a majority at 51%,” they said.

“This is the first poll to show such a majority but we do not expect it to be the last. The current actions of the Executive in Westminster are troubling and all serious democrats, socialists, and fair-minded people should be looking at independence with fresh eyes.

“As we in Labour for indyWales have long advocated, Labour supporters want self-determination and a fairer country. more and more people know that we won’t get that in the UK.

“It is an unbalanced Union where even our Senedd, our Welsh Parliament, can be overruled, ignored, and stolen from. Welsh Labour should not see independence as a threat to be tackled, but rather as an opportunity – to build a fairer and more socialist country.”


Siôn Jobbins, chair of YesCymru – the campaign for an independent Wales – said that the figures were “incredible”.

“It’s clear that Labour supporters are now backing independence as the best hope for making Wales a better place in which to live and defending Wales from Westminster policies.

“They have been let down time and again by the Westminster system – rich communities have got richer, whilst poorer communities have become poorer and hollowed out.

“People only need to look around them to see the stark failings of being ruled from Westminster despite Wales being a country rich in resources.

“They live in communities ravaged by failed austerity policies that have put the City of London ahead of the people of Wales.

“It’s only with decisions about Wales being made here in Wales that we can put the happiness and well-being of ordinary people at the forefront of government policy.

“People in Wales also see that 55% of people in Scotland support independence and that the SNP will hold a referendum on independence. Wales can’t afford to put its head in the sand. The Senedd needs to have plans in place to give Wales the option of voting on independence.”

And Mr Jobbins warned politicians against any attempt to weaken the Senedd.

“We have seen in this poll and other recent polling what institutions people trust,” he said. “Any attempt to roll back devolution, any attempt to undermine our Senedd and any attempt to tell the people of Wales ‘no you can’t’ is doomed to failure.

“The people of Wales support devolution and they want to see their rights upheld by our own government and parliament.”

Total sample size was 1035 Adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 24th – 27th August 2020. The survey was carried out online.

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