New Senedd ‘super constituencies’ confirmed
Chris Haines – ICNN Senedd reporter
Final plans for 16 new “super constituencies” have been unveiled ahead of the next Senedd election in a little over a year.
The Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru confirmed the 16 constituencies which were created from pairing the 32 used in July’s Westminster general election.
Each of the constituencies will elect six Senedd members in May 2026, with the current 40 Senedd constituencies and five regions set to be scrapped.
The Senedd will expand from 60 to 96 politicians at the next election, abandoning first past the post in favour of a fully proportional system aimed at better reflecting how Wales voted.
Due to time constraints ahead of the 2026 election, the commission was tasked with pairing neighbouring UK parliamentary seats to create 16 for the Senedd.
‘Full review’
But a full boundary review – the first in 18 years, with the last held before the 2007 poll – will take place post-election, with the political map of Wales set to be redrawn by 2030.
Ministers will be required to bring forward regulations to give automatic effect to the commission’s final report and will not be able to deviate from its recommendations.
The commission made two changes to the paired constituencies, both in Cardiff, since publishing revised proposals in December.
The final configuration sees Cardiff North and Cardiff East paired to create Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf, with Cardiff West and Cardiff South and Penarth forming Caerdydd Penarth.
The 16 constituencies proposed by the commission are:
Bangor Conwy Môn
Clwyd
Fflint Wrecsam
Gwynedd Maldwyn
Ceredigion Penfro
Sir Gaerfyrddin
Gŵyr Abertawe
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
Afan Ogwr Rhondda
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
Sir Fynwy Torfaen
Casnewydd Islwyn
Caerdydd Penarth
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
The commission received more than 4,000 responses to its consultation on the proposals – by far the biggest public engagement with a boundary review process in Wales.
Shereen Williams is chief executive of the commission which was set up last year to replace the Local Democracy and Boundary Commission for Wales.
“The changes we’ve had to make have been very significant,” she said.
“The commission would like to thank its partners in Welsh Government, the Senedd, local authorities and the entire Welsh electoral community for their engagement with this review.
“Mostly however, the commission wishes to thank the members of the public who have responded to its consultations in greater numbers than ever before.
“The debate over proposed pairs and names has been robust, but very constructive, and the constituencies recommended by the commission have been significantly strengthened due to the public’s involvement in the process.”
‘Local ties’
Each of the new constituencies will have about 140,000 voters but Bangor Conwy Môn will have around 20,000 fewer because Ynys Môn has historically been a protected seat.
The new Gwynedd Maldwyn seat – a combination of Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Montgomeryshire and Glydŵr – will stretch from the coast to the English border.
Ceredigion Penfro and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd will also be geographically giant seats.
In her foreword to the report, chair Beverley Smith said the commission had to balance issues raised in consultation responses against constraints set out in the legislation.
She wrote: “Where possible, the commission has had regard to existing local government boundaries; it has sought to avoid or minimise the breaking of local ties, and on occasion the commission has had regard to special geographic considerations.”
‘Closed lists’
Under the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024, votes will continue to be translated into seats via the D’Hondt mathematical formula.
Taking evidence on the then-bill, a Senedd committee heard the effective threshold to get elected would be about 12% of the vote – a high bar compared with other parliaments.
Wales will adopt a “closed-list” electoral system from 2026, with the electorate voting for political parties rather than specific candidates on the ballot paper.
Parties will order their eight-name lists for each constituency unlike under the single transferrable vote system which would give voters a greater say..
Following the election, the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru will be given more flexibility as it conducts a comprehensive review ahead of the 2030 election.
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.
What happens if all 6 elected members come from one part, unlikely but not impossible. For example what happens if all members from Ceredigion Penfro happen to come from the Aberystwyth area? That means Pembrokeshire would be left without any representation, yet would still have a representative at Westminster, would this not play into the hands of the abolitionists?
I agree with expanding the Senedd and increasing it powers as well as getting rid of first past the post, but surely we need a better system than this. Replace closed lists with Single Transferable Vote.
Agreed, but Labour are scared of the Single Transferable vote because they would no longer control who is elected from their party. The Tories are of the exact same opinion.
Although I’m glad to see the capacity of the Senedd is increasing from 60 to 96, which is long overdue, still have doubts with the close list system. I can forsee further change in the future.
I agree with Rob, I want my interests to be represented by somebody with a connection to and knowledge about my local area. Although my current AM did not hold my political views, he was responsive to concerns raised. i cannot imagine how these changes to huge multi-member constituencies will benefit anyone except the London centric political parties who will parachute in professional political hacks into the winnable positions on the list. There will be no representation of local views or voice for our concerns. We have already struggled with getting our local concerns about the notorious Withybush landfill raised,… Read more »
I too agree. The closed list is a dreadful option for the reasons given – far worse then the hybrid model since ‘99. Smaller parties and independents have little or no chance of representation and if turnout drops much further then it undermines the institution itself.
MEPs were elected by the closed list system and look what happened to them. Prioritising some mathematical fairness over a system that “feels” democratic doesn’t seem very wise.
Increasing the capacity of the Senedd is long overdue. But the closed list system is an abomination. It must be replaced in 2030. The proposed constituencies are also a worry: the huge constitiuencies cited in your article mean that those of us living in rural Wales will inevitably be shortchanged compared to urban dwellers. Some system which compensated rurality should have been adopted..
What a mess!
Urban constituencies should be larger and have five or six MSs. Rural constituencies should be smaller and have three or four MSs. Lists should be open, but the political establishments of Labour and the Tories will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to accept this because they want to maintain control of who represents their parties. I have a preference for the Single Transferable Vote (STV), it’s used to elect MLAs to Northern Ireland Assembly and the Dail Eireann (Irish Parliament). Also it is used to elect Councillors in Scotland and Northern Ireland. I’m not insistent on STV being… Read more »