New study finds Wales will only deliver 14% of tree planting target

Nation.Cymru staff

Welsh voters have significantly backed more tree planting, yet according to a new study Wales will fall short of its 2030 woodland target.

The new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that Wales is projected to achieve just 14% of its national tree planting target.

The shortfall comes despite strong public backing, with polling from More in Common for ECIU showing two-thirds (66%) of Welsh adults support significantly increasing tree planting, even if this would require converting some farmland into new woodland.

This could include ‘agroecological’ approaches such as integrating trees into working farms or focusing planting on less productive marginal land.

Plaid Cymru’s manifesto reflects this approach, committing to expanding tree cover through native woodland creation, agroforestry on farms, and extending tree planting targets to public land. The manifesto does not set a specific hectare target.

Trees on farms can help shade livestock to help protect them during the kind of heatwave Wales has just witnessed where May temperature records were broken.

Trees can also play an important role in helping rainfall soak into the ground rather than flowing overland, but they also suck carbon out of the atmosphere as they grow, helping to tackle climate change which is itself driving more flooding in Wales.

With over 70% of carbon removal between now and 2050 set to come from trees planted in the next five years, the analysis underlines the critical window that exists for woodland creation to contribute to climate targets.

The cumulative shortfall of approximately 41,000 hectares in the UK by 2030 represents missed planting, as well as foregone carbon removal that cannot be easily recovered.

First-hand climate change 

Tom Cantillon, Senior Analyst at the ECIU, said: “Welsh communities have felt the force of a changing climate first-hand with heat records broken, but also flooded homes and washed-out farmland.

“Scientists are clear these events will only become more frequent until net zero emissions is reached and our climate is brought back into balance. Trees planted now will shade livestock, slow floodwaters and help Wales play its part in tackling climate change — but only if they are planted.

“Welsh voters clearly back more trees, and the next five years are critical to getting the right number of saplings in the ground, so they mature in time.

“The incoming Welsh Government committed to more native woodlands, more trees on farms and planting on public land in its manifesto.

“But the gap between current delivery and what’s needed remains enormous. Closing it will require turning that direction into a clear, well-funded plan, including through the Sustainable Farming Scheme.”

Not delivered outcomes

Andy Egan, Head of Policy at the Woodland Trust, said: “Tree planting across the UK remains fragmented and off track in all four nations.

“Despite the creation of a ministerial UK Tree Planting Taskforce to improve coordination, the taskforce has ground to a halt and not delivered any meaningful outcomes.

“While the situation in Scotland is less severe, targets are still being missed. We support the urgent need for all nations to launch coordinated tree growing and woodland creation plans that turn ambition into real-world delivery.”

Trees provide over £400 million per year in flood protection benefits, alongside improvements to water quality, nature recovery, and public health through access to green spaces.

With extreme rainfall events increasing due to climate change, trees planted now will reach maturity in time to help reduce flood risk to homes and communities.

Research points to policy uncertainty and the economics of land-use change as key factors behind the planting gap.

Woodland creation is a permanent land use change, yet the policy and funding environment has historically been subject to more frequent revision than woodland and forestry timescales demand.