Odds slashed on Nigel Farage quitting as Reform leader this year

Nation.Cymru staff

Nigel Farage’s odds of quitting as Reform UK leader before the end of the year have tumbled after another bruising week for the party.

Oddschecker says Mr Farage is now 6/4 to leave his post during 2026, down from 3/1, with 79% of bets placed on the market over the past 24 hours backing his departure this year.

The odds imply a 40% chance of him going before the end of 2026, while he is 9/4 to leave next year and 4/1 to remain until 2028.

Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers said: “Bettors are piling in the pounds on a 2026 exit for Nigel Farage.

“In light of the recent revelations about illegal foreign donations, Farage’s odds to leave before the end of the year have been cut from 3/1 to 6/4.

“Punters are bullish in their support of an imminent exit for the Reform leader with a colossal 79% of bets expecting his tenure to come to an abrupt end.”

The shift follows a row over allegations surrounding foreign funding for polling which overshadowed Reform’s annual conference in Birmingham.

The party’s head of policy James Orr and Dan Jukes, a long-standing aide to Mr Farage, stood down after an undercover Channel 4 News investigation showed them discussing arrangements involving potential foreign donors.

Orr and Jukes had arranged for a US company to fund three polls costing £32,500 which were allegedly commissioned by Reform ahead of local elections in England.

The supposed donors behind the company were in fact undercover reporters from investigative group Verbatim posing as a wealthy American and his UK-based son.

Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts subsequently declared “this is the end for Farage” and called for a full investigation.

She said: “Everyone knows that a fish rots from the head down. James Orr and Dan Jukes are nothing but tiddlers – this is the end for Farage.

“What this exposes is the belief within Reform UK that the rules don’t apply to them, and that they are somehow untouchable and unaccountable, with a contemptuous assumption that everyone else can be taken for fools.

“But a troubling pattern is emerging where Reform UK appears all too willing to be bought, regardless of the consequences or the rules. There must now be a full investigation, and if they are found to have broken the law, they must be fully held to account.”

Foreign companies are not permissible sources of political donations, including benefits in kind such as polling, and accepting such donations could constitute a criminal offence.

The Electoral Commission said it was considering all relevant information and was in contact with the Metropolitan Police.

‘Entrapment’

Mr Farage described the undercover operation as “a clear case of entrapment”.

He said: “The party has broken no laws. The party has not taken any dodgy money or anything like that whatsoever.

“However, it is a clear case of entrapment, and they worked at it for a very, very long time, and they got a couple of our contractors to say things that perhaps should not have been said.”

Mr Farage said the polling had been commissioned by an independent third party and that no prohibited funding had entered Reform.

Mr Jukes has also denied wrongdoing, saying he had stepped back from politics to clear his name.

The controversy dominated much of Reform’s annual conference, with Mr Farage acknowledging there would be voters who were worried by the allegations.

But he insisted he had not thought about quitting, despite revealing that members of his family had urged him to “walk away”.

He said: “I have had, I’ll be honest, you know when your own family start to turn on you because of what you do, some very thoughtful moments. Very, very thoughtful moments.”

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