Parties brace for tight Senedd race ahead of Friday’s count

Nation.Cymru staff

Counting is set to get under way for the Senedd election across Wales on Friday morning, with results expected to begin emerging from mid-afternoon.

Party figures issued statements overnight as voting ended, acknowledging a closely fought campaign shaped by pressure on public services and a volatile political landscape.

Welsh Labour campaign chairman Huw Irranca-Davies said the party had faced a “tough election campaign” under “difficult circumstances”.

“After many years in government in Wales, and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration,” he said.

He pointed to the ongoing cost of living pressures as a key factor, adding that Labour would “reflect carefully and listen with humility” to voters in the days ahead.

“There will be no dodging. No deflection. Just determination to put things right,” he said, praising First Minister Eluned Morgan for her leadership during the campaign.

A spokesperson for Plaid Cymru said the party had heard a “clear appetite for change” during the campaign and thanked voters for their participation.

“We are proud of the positive and disciplined campaign we have taken to every corner of Wales,” they said.

“The people of Wales have now voted, and we look forward to the results on Friday with humility and with hope for the positive future Wales deserves.”

Welsh Liberal Democrats leader Jane Dodds also thanked supporters and campaigners, saying the party would continue to campaign on local services and economic fairness regardless of the outcome.

The statements come after the final major poll of the campaign on Tuesday suggested a tight race for control of the Senedd.

A survey for ITV Cymru Wales, conducted by YouGov, put Plaid Cymru on 33% of the vote, four points ahead of Reform UK on 29%, with Labour trailing on 12%.

Seat projections based on MRP modelling suggested Plaid could emerge as the largest party with around 43 seats in the expanded 96-member chamber, compared with 34 for Reform. Labour was projected to win 12 seats, with the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats expected to take smaller numbers.

Analysts have cautioned that relatively small shifts in vote share could still have a significant impact on final seat totals under the new electoral system.