Parties respond to stunning Senedd election poll
Welsh political parties have responded to a sensational new poll which puts Plaid Cymru well ahead of its rivals ahead of May’s Senedd election.
The ITV Cymru Wales / YouGov poll shows Plaid Cymru rising to 37%, up seven points since September.
Reform UK has fallen from 29% to 23% while the Green Party is in third place with 13%. Labour has slipped to its lowest Welsh poll rating ever on 10%, level with the Conservatives.
The poll comes less than four months before Wales elects 96 Senedd Members on 7 May, 36 more than under the previous electoral system.
Plaid Cymru greeted the poll describing it as a historic moment in Welsh politics. Speaking on ITV Cymru Wales programme Sharp End, deputy leader Delyth Jewell MS said the results were “momentous”.
She said the findings “crystallise a pattern we have seen for months of Plaid gaining support and momentum”.
Ms Jewell said Plaid Cymru was now “within touching distance of winning with an outright majority”.
She said the difference such a result could make to people’s lives in Wales “cannot be overstated”.
Reform UK struck a defiant note, despite the big drop in support for Nigel Farage’s party. Francesca O’Brien, representing Reform, said the poll was “a snapshot in time”. She insisted there would not be “a huge amount of change between now and May”.
Ms O’Brien added that Reform UK was confident of closing the gap on Plaid Cymru. She claimed the election was “a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru”.
Challenge
Welsh Labour acknowledged the scale of the challenge it faces. Transport Secretary Ken Skates MS admitted: “It’s not a good poll for us.”
Mr Skates said Labour would “fight strongest when our backs are against the wall”.
He argued that Welsh Labour “delivers what we promise”, while claiming other parties “promise fantasies”.
The Welsh Conservatives, who are projected to have just six MSs in the next Senedd, expressed alarm at the prospect of Plaid Cymru topping the poll. James Evans MS said the figures would be “frightening” for the people of Wales.
He argued that Plaid’s surge represented “an existential threat” to Wales’ place in the United Kingdom. Mr Evans said he would campaign to ensure voters backed “a unionist party in control in the Senedd”.
The Welsh Green Party welcomed its historic third-place showing. Leader Anthony Slaughter described the poll as “incredibly exciting”. He said it reflected what the party was hearing from voters “on the doorstep”.
Mr Slaughter said support was building “around a campaign offering hope to politics”.
‘More work’
The Welsh Liberal Democrats struck a more cautious tone. Leader Jane Dodds MS stressed that “it was only one single poll”.
She said she was pleased to see Reform UK’s support fall. However, she said the figures showed “we need to do more work as Welsh Liberal Democrats”.
With Plaid Cymru out in front, Reform UK positioning itself as the main challenger and the Greens overtaking Labour, the poll points suggest a dramatically reshaped political landscape after the election with Labour losing it’s grip on power for the first time since devolution.
This week’s Sharp End episode is available to view on ITVX here or on YouTube here.
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Polls like this are just a snapshot, but there has now been a continuum of polls that have shown Plaid Cymru in the lead. Given that polls involve the sureying of ordinary voters, the only ‘existential threat’ I can perceive is the annhilation of the Tory party in Wales and the decimation (almost literally) of Labour who, far from delivering what they promise have overseen a quarter century of managed decline, failing the Welsh people miserably which led to the Brexit vote and the rise of closet fascist Reform UK. I strongly suspect that the Green Party would poll much… Read more »
Yes, spot on. It is remarkable that there is now the prospect of a Welsh Government that does not involve Labour at all. That has to be good for democracy. Plaid has the momentum clearly; but the note of caution is that this could be an anti Labour phenomenon rather than enthusiasm for anyone else. 27 years of utter failure in the Bay plus the u turn government at Westminster has seen to that.
There is also a rallying of the progressive vote to prevent Deform getting in. An electoral wipeout of the Tories would also be satisfying
Interesting to see that the tories are more concerned with the “union” than the governing in Cymru!. I don’t doubt that if it would stop Plaid, they wouldn’t hesitate to urge their voters to support Labour or reform
I would rather a two horse race between PC and the greens. Come on Wales, please consign the deformed anti welsh party with its antisemitic leader Garage to the reject bin.
Polls just a snapshot as Padi Philips says above. People need to be encouraged by this, not to engage in premature celebrations but to get out and speak to their communities to reinforce the message armed with some more detailed statements of intent from the party.
The failure to devolve APD when asked under the Cons showed clear intent by Whitehall to keep Wales poorer. Then nothing changed under London Labour.
Positive to see that the Tories are still in the fantasy land of imaginary unicorns and unions. Wales is beautiful for sending them to the political history bin.
The poll that shows that Plaid are comfortably in the lead for Westminster proves that Welsh people are sick and tired of pro London and pro English parties running Wales and not giving a monkeys about us
PC got it nailed. As long as he doesn’t go too far in terms of discussing independence, scaring the horses etc and has a positive vision (rather than “Vote for us as we’re not Reform”) then they will walk it. It does feel like a bit of a one man show though so hopefully other potential PC ministers will step up. Can’t imagine Reform anywhere near governing our country. Horrendous thought on all levels.
You know the Russians will be trying to help their old mate Farage.
You know the child porn and women abuse generator owner will be trying to help farage. Is he keeping his payments from that site?
And in case you missed it, when they did the presser with the ex Tory that said he would never join Reform and the Reform that said they would never take that ex tory, they didn’t like being asked about covid jabs. You know the Tory, heating stables, owed the tax man 5 million…
Farage is now full on trump anti vax. So, all those immunisation programs….. farage thinks you are a fool for taking them.
This is poll is a political shockwave to the Westminster establishment. Rhun ap Iorwerth & Plaid Cymru must not be complacent though. There’s a long way to go until May’s Senedd Cymru election. Labour central office will pull out all the stops with promises and pledges. They’ve done it before and will do it again. Plaid Cymru must not only bombard social media with its positive message of real change, while keeping up the heat white hot on both Welsh & UK Labour, but also expose sly Reform’s Nigel Farage as the snake oil salesman he most certainly is ,… Read more »
If Welsh Labour want to claw back some ground they need to deliver something radical. I would suggest they should convince their Westminster colleagues to pass emergency legislation making Gŵyl Dewi Sant a bank holiday in Cymru, THIS YEAR! Then they could claim to have delivered something.
Far too late for that and other gimmicks. No one is going to be fooled after 27 years of nothing in particular.
Especially from a party that at the Westminster level adopts Reform UK policies and shows itself as being in thrall to Israeli interests and proscribes an organisation committed to non-violent direct action. A government with a Trump sycophant as leader.
I’m pleased for PC voters to be able to rejoice at this but I wouldn’t break out the hats & hooters just yet. How many Reform supporters do you think would be open about their voting choice when asked as part of a survey like this one?
What have they got to be ashamed of by declaring their intention to vote Reform? Answers on the back of a discarded Farage fag packet please.
That suggests the Cons and Lab are both on even less than 10%.
Why would they worry in an anonymous poll… Lets see though for real world. Voting for a party that supported a bloke that severely beat his girlfriend. Reform’s farage showing support for a boxer convicted of rape in a civil court. Reforms farage showing support for a bloke that abuses women and awaiting trial in the UK for some really disgusting stuff and calling him an important voice for men. Reform owner refusing to apologise for some vile comments on race hate and calling the people that accused him liars but wont deny it. Refused to pull the plug on… Read more »
With Wales having thoroughly rejected the Tories for years I am at loss to understand how Reform (aka Temu-Tories, aka The-Even-Nastier-Party) thought they stood a whelks chance in a supernova here.
We are a Left-Leaning country – and when Labour deserted their base and became spineless beige technocrats, where else can we possibly be expected to look: Plaid Cymru and the Greens are the only ones with an ounce of decency or visions of a fairer future.
Reform capitalises on desperation, and desperate people don’t think things through. We just need to remind them that Reform is more or less made in Moscow – is that what they want?
I think Jeff’s list should be repeated every day, put on stickers and generally distributed to that it becomes the subliminal message it needs to be.
Farage is a danger to all.
Reform’s Francesca O’Brien predicts “a huge amount of change between now and May”, well here’s hoping, but not in the way she thinks.
Decent people of Cymru, do not assume this is in the bag AT ALL. Don’t assume you can stay home on Polling day. Because the Deformers won’t and their mostly retired base will definitely attend. Our nation is worth saving. Frankly is worth Independence, but one step at a time. I don’t want English millionaires and chancers deciding the future of my home nation.
It wouldn’t just be English, they’d be mainly Russian.
Therein lies our biggest problem – the big slice of demotivated or undermotivated electorate who “can’t be bothered”, “don’t like politics or politicians” but can be prompted by a spiv with the common touch. He may offer nothing in reality but his moaning and groaning strikes the right note with that c.50% of our voters who normally can’t be arsed. That’s why the other parties especially Plaid need to broadcast their offering in more detail and not just rely on Farage bashing which will feed his machine enabling him to throw back comments like “why are they so afraid of… Read more »
Yes indeed
There are 6 seats going begging so every vote counts
Ceredigion. Plaid could possibly take 4 out the 6 seats
Yet 200 stay at home voters could cost them a seat.