Plaid Cymru and Reform are neck-and-neck in Senedd election race – new poll

Mark Mansfield

A new poll has suggested Plaid Cymru and Reform are neck-and-neck in the race to form the next Welsh Government, with just days to go until the Senedd election.

The latest MRP survey by More in Common indicates the two parties could win the same number of seats when voters go to the polls on May 7, underlining the increasingly tight and unpredictable nature of the contest.

Plaid Cymru and Reform have led voting intention polls in Wales for several months, pushing Labour – which has governed since devolution began – into third place. The new modelling reinforces that shift, pointing to what analysts describe as a two-horse race with no clear winner.

According to the poll, both Plaid Cymru and Reform are projected to win 34 seats each in the expanded 96-member Senedd, well short of the 49 required for a majority. Labour is forecast to fall to 14 seats – down sharply on previous projections – with the Conservatives on nine and the Greens on five, which would mark the latter’s first representation in the Senedd. The Liberal Democrats are not expected to win any seats.

The findings suggest Wales is heading for a hung Senedd with no straightforward path to government. A Plaid Cymru–Labour coalition, previously seen as a likely route to power, is now projected to fall one seat short of a majority on 48. That could force any administration to rely on a minority arrangement or a broader multi-party deal, potentially involving the Greens.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With less than a week to go, the race has tightened.

“As we saw ahead of the Caerphilly by-election, Labour is being squeezed in the final days as voters rally behind Plaid Cymru as the progressive alternative to Reform.

“After nearly three decades leading the Senedd, Labour could fail to top the poll in any constituency and be pushed into third place.

“For Reform, this would represent an extraordinary breakthrough – going from barely contesting the last Senedd election to being in contention for the highest number of seats.

“But even Rhun ap Iorwerth will not be celebrating yet – the outcome is likely to require complex coalition or confidence and supply negotiations.”

The poll, based on responses from 2,159 people across Wales collected between March and April, puts Plaid Cymru on 30% of the vote and Reform on 27%.

Finely balanced

It also highlights how finely balanced the election could be under the new electoral system. Seats allocated later in the d’Hondt process are particularly sensitive to small shifts in vote share, with analysts suggesting that around one in six seats could be decided by margins of less than 2.5%. In some cases, differences as small as 0.06% could determine the final seat in a constituency.

That volatility means Plaid Cymru’s final tally could vary significantly, with projections suggesting a range from the low 30s to around 40 seats depending on how marginal contests fall.

The modelling also points to a potentially difficult night for Labour figures, with First Minister Eluned Morgan projected to be at risk of losing her seat in the newly formed Ceredigion Penfro constituency, where Labour is forecast to finish fourth.

Separate betting markets have also pointed to a close race. Odds released at the end of last week showed Plaid Cymru as favourites to win the most seats, though Reform has continued to attract strong backing, reflecting the tight nature of the contest as Wales heads towards polling day.