Plaid Cymru and Reform neck-and-neck in new Senedd poll
Reform UK has drawn level with Plaid Cymru in the race to become the largest party in the Senedd, according to a new ITV Cymru Wales poll.
The YouGov survey, carried out in partnership with Cardiff University, puts both parties on 29% of the vote, with Reform gaining two points and Plaid dropping four since the last poll.
Modelling based on the new d’Hondt electoral system suggests Reform would win 37 seats and Plaid Cymru 36, leaving both short of a majority just over two weeks before voters go to the polls on May 7.
Labour remains in third place on 13%, which would translate into 12 seats, although the projections suggest Welsh leader Eluned Morgan would lose her seat.
The Green Party is on 10%, equating to seven seats, while the Conservatives are on 8% and forecast to win three seats. The Liberal Democrats are on 6%, which would see leader Jane Dodds returned as the party’s sole MS.
Despite the tight race at the top, experts said the pathway to forming a government could differ significantly between the two leading parties.
Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said: “This poll shows another small drop in support for Plaid Cymru, putting them level with Reform UK at 29%.
“But taken alongside the broader polling trend, the signal is clear: the race for the largest party remains between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with every other party competing for a distant third place and below.
“What that framing obscures, however, is that finishing first may matter less than it appears. Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform.”
Working majority
He added that Plaid could potentially form a working majority with Labour and the Greens, while Reform had fewer viable partners.
ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the poll would “galvanise” both frontrunners.
“Reform UK will use it to urge its supporters to make its gain a reality in terms of votes,” he said.
“While Plaid Cymru’s drop won’t necessarily be unwelcome, it may shake up any complacency that has crept in.”
He added that the election appeared set to be a “change election”, with voters signalling a desire for something different.
‘Defining moment’
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said the poll reinforced the party’s view that the election had become a straight contest between Plaid and Reform.
“This is a defining moment – a choice between two very different futures,” they said.
“Plaid Cymru will be working hard to earn people’s support over the next two weeks and make the case for new leadership under Rhun ap Iorwerth.”
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There’s 16 constituencies and just 7 Green seats meaning a majority of constituencies will see voting Green helping Reform. Plaid need to hammer this message.
Its Labour voters that Plaid need to target
No as they will get seats in most constituencies.
Which they did in the Caerphilly by-election
Dr Larner is wrong. It matters very much who is the largest party. If it is Reform, then that sets a dire tone for the next five years and will undermine the functioning of the Senedd. We don’t need to be told (yet again) that Reform has few, if any, friends to form a government. That misses the central point completely.
They are desperate for a stolen election narrative.
You’re correct, A la Trump. If they do win, give them a go. The mess they’ll make will teach the electorate an expensive but worthwhile, long lastig lesson
On these figures, and in every other poll in recent weeks. Reform have no pathway to power. Even if the tories jump into bed with them it would only give a Reform/tory alliance 40 Senedd seats…..some way short of the 49 required to have a bare majority. In contrast Plaid’s pathway to power is very clear. So those people who are thinking of voting for Farage’s party on May 7th might then want to ask themselves what is the point of doing so?
The ‘party of choice’ sure likes to limit parental choice when it suits them…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8r46y1y83ro
Rhun ap Iorwerth may be doing well in the debates and comes across as a credible alternative, but I do wonder about the strategy. A lot of the focus seems to be on attacking Reform UK, which is understandable, but the bigger opportunity might actually be with Welsh Labour voters who are on the fence. I’ve said this before, plenty of people say they will vote Plaid as a way of sending a message to Keir Starmer, but when it comes to polling day they drift back to Labour. Those are the voters that Plaid really need to go after.… Read more »
The news media has played a large role in giving the obnoxious fascists free publicity. If they should win, I’m giving up on Cymru, and maybe on life too.