Plaid Cymru defeats Reform UK and Labour to win Caerphilly by-election
Martin Shipton
Reform UK was sent packing by the voters of Caerphilly as Plaid Cymru won the seat’s Senedd by-election.
Despite huge resources poured into the constituency by Reform and several visits by party leader Nigel Farage, Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle won with a majority of 3,848 over the far right party’s Llyr Powell.
Labour, which had held the seat at Westminster and the Senedd since 1918 was pushed into third place:
Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru) 15,961
Llyr Powell (Reform UK) 12,113
Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour) 3,713
Gareth Potter (Conservative) 690
Gareth Hughes (Green) 516
Steve Aicheler (Liberal DSemocrat) 497
Anthony Cook (Gwlad) 117
Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79
Tribute
In his victory speech Mr Whittle, a long-serving local councillor and former two-time leader of Caerphilly council, firstly paid an emotional tribute to the late Labour MS Hefin David, whose sudden death in August brought about the by-election.
He said: “Whilst we are perhaps euphoric in some parties tonight, I would respectfully ask that you all please remember the reason we have this by-election under very sad circumstances and I am very proud to pay tribute to Hefin David and to his family and friends. I extend my still personal, deepest sympathies. He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes, but I promise you I will walk the same path that he did, and I can pay no finer tribute to an excellent man.
“I hope that this will now be an exciting time for politics in Wales. I’ve been absolutely heartened by the number of young people who’ve been involved in this campaign.
“Listen now Cardiff and listen Westminster. This is Caerphilly and Wales telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales. The big parties need to sit up and take notice. In Wales we are at the dawn of new leadership. We are at the dawn of a new beginning and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales, and in particular for the people of the Caerphilly constituency.
“I thank you with all of my heart. It is is better than scoring the winning try for Wales against New Zealand in the Rugby World Cup. This means everything to me – and the people of Caerphilly constituency, you mean everything to me and I promise you, I will serve you all to the very best of my ability.”
Speech
Unusually the second-place candidate, Reform UK’s Llyr Powell, did not make a speech.
Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe said: “I’d like to offer my congratulations to Lindsay on his victory. And I want to thank all those who put their trust in me by voting for Welsh Labour. And I’m sure I speak for all in this room when I say that nobody expected this by-election to take place. Hefin David, whose tragic death brought about these circumstances, was my friend and my mentor. His kindness, his passion for the people of Caerphilly, and his tireless work to listen and stand up for his constituents, has been the guiding spirit of our campaign.
“In difficult circumstances, we did our best to run a positive campaign, one that put the concerns of the people of Caerphilly and the Valleys at its heart. The team and I knocked on 75,000 doors, spoke to tens of thousands of people more than once.
“I still passionately believe in Welsh labour, its values and its vision for the future. So while we may have lost today, I won’t stop campaigning for that future. In May, we will have a chance to decide again, with a new system and a new chance to shape our country. And I will be here fighting again for what we believe.
“Many issues have been raised with me in the course of our campaign, and I have heard what people have said and what they want. So as a constituent, I will be engaging with Lindsay on those issues. I wish him the best in his tenure so that we can deliver for the people here, because that’s what really matters.”
‘Hope’
Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said: “Tonight, the people of Caerphilly have spoken loud and clear. They’ve chosen hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Wales vision.
“Lindsay Whittle is a tireless local champion who knows every community in this constituency inside out and will deliver real change for the people of Caerphilly.
“This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative. We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone.
“The message from Caerphilly is clear: Wales is ready for new leadership, and Plaid Cymru is leading the way.”
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Very poor of Llyr Powell not to deliver a speech, at the very least paying tribute to Hefin David. Smacks of sour grapes and a sense of entitlement. He clearly thought he had this in the bag. Appalling and disrespectful conduct by a so-called prospective Senedd candidate.
Very true. This is proof of who they are.
What could he actually have said, given the degree of premature triumphalism that Reform – backed, it seems, by rather a lot of UK political commentators – had previously exhibited?!
Oh I don’t know, perhaps he could have paid tribute to the late incumbent and congratulated the victor? He didn’t need to say much but the fact that he said nothing at all suggests to me that he is a sore loser.
On another note, I am glad that their premature triumphalism came back to haunt them and hope it will continue to do so.
He could, but didn’t – doubtless he was sulking. Sore loser indeed.
As, surely, was his garrulous boss – after all, Reform’s a company rather than a political party – who, having spent election day scuttling around the constituency buttering up potential voters, vanished without trace once he grasped that his lad wasn’t going to win.
Agreed. I see his boss buggered off early, too. It shows them for what they are.
A GOOD WIN BY A GOOD MAN!
A species that is declining in numbers!
Brilliant and amazing news. Well done. Congratulations to PC on this beautiful morning. Send the hate filled clowns packing.
Striking for me how wrong so much of the wider UK political commentariat has proved to be. So many of them seemed to be assuming a Reform UK win in this election that even I’d started to be gloomily resigned to that eventuality.
Suggests to me that their understanding that there can be a real difference between politics in Wales and politics in England is more limited than it ought to be!
Only one poll matters!
In England, the Green Party with its new leader Zack Polanski are doing well.
Their membership is now almost 150,000 and still growing.
We can only hope that the Green Party will be England’s future government and we need them to be.
When we are independent our neighbours need stable democratic governments in England and Scotland.
If the far right do take control in England, as in Russia, an independent Wales could suffer the same fate as Ukraine today.
Yes, the impact of Polanski’s new leadership of the Greens is both interesting and impressive. As is he. I think that his leadership might indeed make possible further Green gains in urban and considerably well-educated middle class urban constituencies like Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central. I grew up outside Manchester, and I can think of at least one suburban constituency there where, with sufficient campaigning along the right lines, they might well be in with a chance of a win. But I do wonder what impact his ideology and style might have on the sort of voters who rather surprisingly… Read more »
To be fair, they were counting on the vote against them being split between Plaid and Labour, and to a lesser extent the Greens, whereas they are riding high on the knowledge that they’ve all but replaced the Tories. It’s a pattern single-vote systems have shown us many times.
Yes, there’s something in that. But it turned out to be very much of a misjudgement.
Not just a win for plaid but an emphatic one – and thats important because if it had been close (as was expected) we can be sure those scallywags of Reform would have made the kind of baseless accusations about the result which has become the stock in trade of the populist right.
I don’t know, seeing Plaid outperform Labour by that margin on their home turf is a big deal if you ask me.
This is a welcome relief but also, a considerable shock. Ukip, saw all of its votes disappear, as did the conservatives. Never mind Labour. Plaid did very well indeed, claiming a 19% swing of victory and an 11% victory lead. For me, this bodes well, it reminds us that more people in Caerphilly are decent, caring folk, not in it for themselves but rather for their community and Wales. I was seriously beginning to have my doubts about whether Plaid could push this over the line or whether Labour would somehow drag them down leaving the candidacy to Reform. A… Read more »
Good news to start the day…
Shame to learn that there are 12,000 of Putin’s English Nationalists living in one place that close to our capital…
Indeed. I struggle to understand how those 12k came to support the very same lot who sold them down the river with their Brexit lies. I think the mechanism is known as “cognitive dissonance”.
You can’t educate pork mate
Some Tories switched parties plus that huge chunk of Labour that can’t see further than the Union and Britishness as manifest in everything English.
An end to the last minute pierhead jump, ‘my chances are better on a passing ship’ or awarding oneself a letter of marque as an ‘Independent privateer’…
A thought re. the press/media, never accept a piggy-back across the ‘river of news’ off a journalist. They can’t help themselves, friction sells copy, they will burn you if they must. And then there must be unintended consequences…
Hislop brought Fat Shanks into most living rooms to make people laugh…!
Worrying, more like.
Mr Whittle; a bellwether for a better future for Cymru…
Follow the sure footed on a well trod path…
Plaid needs to learn a lesson too from this victory. Learn to be more careful with candidate selection. Rely more on the hard graftin’ community workers, the men and women who are within their communities, who know what the constituents are talking about. Steer away from the P.R and marketing woks and the political “professionals”, advisers who spend far too long studying the dubious outputs of influencers.
Llongyfarchiadau Plaid a diolch Pobl Caerffili. The joy and relief will be felt by many, not least our Ukrainian friends and many others who would be targets of vile hatred for which, I’m sad to say, a total of 12,882 voted in favour of yesterday.
It was 12,113 actually. Don’t give them any additional votes, they don’t deserve it!!
12,113 (Turquouse hate) + 690 (Blue hate) + 79 (Purple hate) = 12,882 (Total hate).
Classy words from Lindsay about Hefin. Well done and llongyfarchiadau.
This is amazing, thank you to the people of Caerphilly!
Baroness Morgan – “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.
“We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”
As that other comedian used to say, “it’s the way she tells ’em”. With Rachel Reeves now contemplating hiking up the basic rate of tax etc in a cost of living crisis, the futures’s looking rosy. More flags.
Most importantly, this shows that division and falsehood can be defeated. But it’s only round one.
Llongyfarchiadau Plaid. Great to see Labour suffer, their 100 years of corruption and neglect in the valleys is coming to an end. They have suffocated our potential for far too long. Their love for their party and the union with England supersedes everything, good riddance to them!
Thank you to the people of Caerffili!
I bet that frog-faced moneyfunster is having a bad day though.
Putins chump and Starmer on notice then. Cons already sent off early.
LLongyfarchiadau!!
Respect to the good people of Caerphilly!
Chwarae Teg! Well done Caerphilly in showing that hatred and division has no place in Wales.
Caerphilly says no to the fash. A great morning indeed.
Well done P Ca step in the right direction for Wales and Plaid leader after the win the way Starmer Liebour treated Wales no different to Tory treated as a COLONY of England this morning i do what i do every morning read the papers the papers online and the English media are not happy GOOD the comments about us Welsh are derogatry it is my Believe that this the begining of English rule of Wales and and the Celtic Nations the break away from England not forgeting the rapid rise of English nationalism EVERY COUNTRY HAS THE RIGHT TO… Read more »
As I wrote earlier this week, I said we’d find out whether the Beaufort Research poll published a few days ago was accurate or not at the result for the coming Caerphilly by-election. It turns out the poll was a load of old cobblers as I’d suspected. I can only assume that Beaufort Research is run by people called Bozo, Krusty and Ronald McDonald!!
The poll was likely flawed in some way, given the issues with constituency polling. But the polls alomst certainly influenced behaviour, driving up Plaid’s vote and turnout. Even accurate polls are snapshots, not predictions. And they are also political actions in themselves
Why would a poll showing Labour one per cent ahead of Plaid have influenced voters to switch their vote away from Labour. Surely, it would have made Plaid supporters consider switching their vote to Labour for tactical reasons instead? Thankfully they didn’t!!
Ah, sorry, I thought you were referring to the Caerffili poll showing Reform ahead of Plaid. However, that just makes our comment even more bafflling. The poll you are talking about was for all of Wales. The vote was just in Caerffili. These are different things,obviously. A vote in Caeffili can’t disprove a national poll (even though I too have my doubts about those figures).
It may have had some influence but I find it highly doubtful that a single poll a few days before a by-election would have given Plaid Cymru an edge of nearly 4,000 votes.
Congratulations to Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru) 15,961 votes.
We are on our way.
Wales is winning the real battle.
Llongyfarchiadau Plaid. Don’t expect miracles immediately from Plaid Cymru. It will take them a fair time to put right the 100-plus years of Labour damage. The same thing will apply if Cymru achieve independence. Again, it will take time to undo the dreadful dominance, suppression and depravation the English imposed on us.
Amazing result, but Reform coming 2nd still shows that there are too many people that want to see Wales destroyed and hatred and division in communities.
Not a Caerphilly resident myself but I have personally met Mr. Whittle and found him incredibly easy to converse with. I’m sure he will do a fantastic job representing his home constituency.
Also worth noting Plaid received more than the combined votes of the Tories, Reform and UKIP proving there is no place for the divisive politics of scapegoating and “othering” rhetoric in Caerphilly.
Also more than Reform and Labour combined which is remarkable.
Brilliant result! We should also remember the part that the Caerffili Ukranian community played in this. Calling out Reform for what the are and working to bring the community together while getting terrible online abuse
I’ve had plenty to say about the direction Plaid Cymru has been taking, but in all honesty, this morning I am delighted.
Lindsay is one of those dedicated nationalists who’ve worked tirelessly for years, and, as the saying say, cometh the moment, cometh the man.
Llongyfarchiadau!
O Gymru annwyl. Dw i’n dy garu yn fwy ac yn fwy bob dydd.
There was one picture doing the rounds which said it all about Reform’s toxic campaign
Powell & Anderson pictured standing outside a redundant Caerphilly colliery
The gist was Labour & Plaid was bad for industry
Even though closed down under Thatcher.
This was just after Reform accepting a £100k donation from vulture capitalists Greybell who closed down British Steel.
Meanwhile the anniversary of Aberfan and ex miner Anderson and his fellow MPs dodged the debate on dangerous coal tips at the H of C
Mines are just useful for photo shoots
Very pleased to see Reform UK Llŷr Powell defeated by Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle. The arrogance and entitlement of Reform was palpable. It wiped the smirk off their smug faces. Hope over hate. After 26 years of labour Caerphilly and Wales needs change and Plaid offers us that. Onwards and upwards. #Ymlaen 🏴
For interest I calculated the distribution of seats if this result happened under the new PR system that will be in use at the next Senedd election.
The results were Plaid Cymru 3 seats and Reform 3 seats.
While Plaid’s representation would be roughly equal to their vote share (47%), Reform (36%) appears to be over represented as third place Labour (11%) did not get enough votes to claim one seat.
Looking at that vote split: I wonder how everyone is feeling about closed list PR voting right now?
I think that it will be used ONCE and very quickly replaced by STV. However, even under closed lists, those political parties highlighting the NAMES of their 1/2/3 candidates ( and their records and backgrounds) will always do better than those who expect a blind vote for the party
The Caerphilly election result was a positive turn of history of a kind that is unfortunately all to rare in Welsh politics. Plaid Cymru must build on this and have its plans, on both local and national issues, fully laid out before the electorate in time for next May. This includes trying to win over those who might be tempted by Reform UK’s snake oil. Plaid must also bear in mind that Farage has a magic bullet in terms of people’s anger over immigration, and he’ll milk it to the full.