Plaid Cymru favourites with bookmakers as polling points to tight Senedd race

Mark Mansfield

Plaid Cymru remain the clear favourites with bookmakers to win the most seats in next week’s Senedd election, as recent polling suggests a closely fought contest.

With less than a week until polling day on 7 May, betting markets place Plaid Cymru at odds of 4/11, giving the party an implied probability of around 73% of emerging as the largest party in the Senedd.

Reform UK are second favourites at 2/1, with bookmakers suggesting a roughly one-in-three chance of topping the poll.

Labour, which has governed Wales since devolution in 1999, are considered long shots at 40/1, with the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats all priced at 100/1 or higher.

Figures from Oddschecker show the market has been dominated by Plaid Cymru and Reform in recent weeks, with the two parties accounting for 91% of all bets placed during April.

Plaid attracted 49% of bets, compared with 42% for Reform.

Oddschecker spokesperson Chris Rogers said bookmakers remained “bullish” about Plaid Cymru’s chances, although support for Reform has grown.

“The Welsh election – most seats betting market was immensely popular with punters in April,” he said.

“Strong favourite Plaid Cymru (4/11) and Reform (2/1) dominated the betting. Reform’s odds have shortened from 3/1 into 2/1 as support continues to come in.”

The betting trends broadly reflect a series of recent opinion polls, which have pointed to an unusually fragmented and competitive election.

A number of surveys over the past fortnight have shown Plaid Cymru and Reform UK running neck-and-neck in voting intention, with both parties significantly ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.

A Survation poll for Aberystwyth University and S4C earlier this week put Reform narrowly ahead on 30%, with Plaid Cymru on 28%, while Labour trailed on 15%.

Meanwhile, other polling and modelling has suggested Plaid Cymru could still emerge as the largest party in terms of seats under the new proportional system, despite tight vote shares.

YouGov’s latest MRP model for ITV Cymru Wales projected Plaid on around 40-plus seats in the expanded 96-member Senedd, ahead of Reform and Labour, though short of an overall majority.

Analysts have cautioned that the new electoral system and the closeness of the race make outcomes difficult to predict, with small shifts in support likely to have a significant impact on seat distribution.