Plaid Cymru holds narrow lead over Reform in new Senedd election poll

Martin Shipton

Plaid Cymru holds a narrow two-point lead over Reform UK, according to a new Senedd election poll undertaken by Beaufort Research for Nation.Cymru.

The latest results show an increase in support for Plaid Cymru (now up to 29% of the vote, from 26% in Beaufort’s last poll in November 2025), while Reform UK is unchanged on 27%, followed by Labour on 20% (at a similar level to November, when its support stood at 21%).

Support for the Conservatives and the Green Party has dropped slightly since November (to 10% from 12% and to 7% from 9% respectively) while support for the Liberal Democrats has increased slightly to 5% (from 3% in November). 1% said they would vote for some other party.

The figures add up to 99% instead of 100% because of rounding.

Today’s Beaufort poll follows a YouGov poll that gave Plaid a 14-point lead over Reform and a MoreinCommon poll that gave Reform a seven-point lead over Plaid.

The Beaufort poll, which asked ‘If there were a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?’ suggests that Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is on course to become First Minister after the Senedd election on May 7, either in charge of a minority government or, less likely, in coalition within Labour as the junior partner.

As usual, there are marked differences in levels of support for parties depending on region, gender, age, social grade and whether those polled are Welsh speakers or not.

In North and Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru leads with 26%, followed by Reform on 23%, Labour on 19%, the Conservatives on 12%, the Liberal Democrats on 10%, the Green Party on 9% and others on 1%.

In South West Wales and the Valleys, Plaid leads with 32%, with Reform on 31%, Labour on 21%, the Greens on 7%, the Conservatives on 5%, the Lib Dems on 4% and others on 0%.

In Cardiff and South East Wales, Plaid and Reform are both on 26%, Labour on 19%, the Conservatives 17%, Greens 6%, Lib Dems 4% and others 2%.

Among males, Reform leads with 35%, , Plaid are on 26%, , Labour 20%, Conservatives and Greens on 6%, Lib Dems 5% and other 1%.

Females, on the other hand, put Plaid in the lead with 32%, followed by Labour on 20%, Reform on 19%, Conservatives 15%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 6% and others 1%.

Among those aged 16 to 34, Plaid leads with 35%, followed by Labour on 25%, Greens 14%, Lib Dems 9%, the Conservatives and Reform on 8% and others on 1%.

For people aged 35 to 54, Plaid and Reform are both on 26%, Labour on 25%, Greens 9%, Conservatives 7%, Lib Dems 6% and others 1%.

For people aged 55 and over, Reform leads with 35%, followed by Plaid on 28%, Labour 15%, Conservatives 13%, Lib Dems and Greens 4% and others 1%.

Among those in the more prosperous ABC1 social grade, Plaid leads with 30%, followed by Labour on 25%, Reform 19%, Conservatives 11%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 6% and others 1%.

Meanwhile, among those in the less prosperous C2DE social grades, Reform leads with 42%, followed by Plaid on 26%, Labour 12%, Conservatives 8%, Greens 7%, Lib Dems 5% and others 1%.

Welsh speakers

Among Welsh speakers, Plaid leads with 49%, followed by Labour on 19%, Reform and Greens on 9%, Lib Dems 8%, Conservatives 5% and others 0%.

But among those who cannot speak Welsh, Reform is in the lead with 32% support, followed by Plaid on 23%, Labour on 20%, Conservatives 12%, Greens 7%, Lib Dems 5% and others 1%.

A projection of seats based by Cavendish Cymru on the poll findings suggests that Plaid Cymru would win 35 seats, Reform UK 29, Labour 23, the Conservatives 7, the Green Party 1 and the Liberal Democrats 1.

Fiona McAllister, Managing Director of Beaufort Research, said: “I think the results show there is still everything to play for – there are such marked differences between age groups and social grades in voting intentions, that who turns out to vote on the day will have a big effect.

“If Labour/ Plaid/ Greens can mobilise younger voters then they’re likely to do much better than if there’s a low turnout among this age group, since Reform is so much stronger among older people who are the ones who typically turn out.”

A geographical breakdown would see seats in the 16 “super constituencies” distributed as follows:

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2.

Bangor Conwy Môn: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 1; Conservatives 1; Labour 1.

Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Plaid Cymru 3; Labour 2; Reform 1.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Liberal Democrats 1; Labour 1,

Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Reform 2,

Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 2; Reform 1; Green 1,

Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2.

Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Conservatives 1.

Clwyd: Reform 2; Conservatives 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Labour 1.

Fflint Wrecsam: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservatives 1.

Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2.

Gŵyr Abertawe: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2.

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservative 1.

Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 2.

Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservatives 1.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2.

Fieldwork was undertaken between January 19 and February 8 2026. The voting intention data is based on 486 adults out of the total survey sample of 1,000 who expressed a preference for a party and were 9 or 10 out of 10 in terms of certainty to vote at a Senedd election, so it excludes those who would not vote, prefer not to say who they’d vote for, do not know how they’d vote or who scored 0-8 in terms of certainty to vote.