Plaid Cymru leads final Senedd poll ahead of election day
Nation.Cymru staff
Plaid Cymru has moved into the lead in the final major poll before Thursday’s Senedd election, raising the prospect of a historic shift in Welsh politics.
A new survey for ITV Cymru Wales, conducted by YouGov, puts Plaid on 33% of the vote—four points ahead of Reform UK on 29%.
The poll, released just two days before voters go to the polls on 7 May, suggests Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party is on course to become the largest in the Senedd.
Seat projections
Using MRP modelling under the new 96-seat system, Plaid is projected to win 43 seats, compared to 34 for Reform.
Labour is forecast to take 12 seats, with the Conservatives on four, the Greens on two, and the Liberal Democrats on one.
While Plaid would fall short of an outright majority, the figures point to a potential path to government.
Analysts cautioned that relatively small shifts in vote share could still have a significant impact on seat totals.
Voter expectations
The poll also found that 43% of respondents expect Plaid Cymru to lead the next Welsh Government—far ahead of Reform UK on 15%.
Voters were more likely to favour a single-party government (44%) than a coalition (32%), highlighting a preference for clearer leadership after the election.
When asked about the biggest factor influencing their vote, respondents most commonly cited “stopping Reform” and “immigration”.
The findings underline how sharply polarised the campaign has become in its final days.
Tight race
Dr Jac Larner, of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, said the overall picture of the race is now becoming clearer, even if the final outcome remains uncertain.
He said Plaid had opened a “small gap” over Reform in the closing stages of the campaign, but stressed that the contest remained “incredibly close”.
He added that small changes in vote share could produce “outsized impacts” in seat allocation under the new system.
ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the poll reinforced expectations that the election could mark a turning point.
He said: “This latest poll reinforces the message from a year of polls: this week’s vote will be historic and seems all but certain to lead to a change in who leads the Welsh Government.
“However, it’s still impossible to say if Plaid Cymru or Reform UK will be the largest party and who, if anyone, can form a government.”
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This poll reflects what we’re hearing on the doorstep the length and breadth of Wales in the final days of the campaign. People are making up their minds, and they are deciding to vote Plaid Cymru.
“That’s because they know Plaid Cymru is the best way to stand up for fairness for Wales – from the billions owed in HS2 to power over our natural resources. They know that Plaid Cymru will give Wales the new leadership it needs to improve our NHS, tackle the cost of living with our generous childcare offer and unlock our economy’s potential.
“And they know that only Plaid Cymru can stop billionaire backed Reform from taking Wales backwards.
“This poll shows that there is real momentum behind Plaid and that we can win, but with just days to go, nothing can be taken for granted. We are within touching distance of forming the next government, and every vote will help decide the future of Wales.”
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If this is to be believed once again the Green Party in Wales have flattered to deceive.
Encouraging but it’s a truism that the only poll that matters is on Thursday. And for the findings of this poll to be realised – and to banish the nightmare of Nigel Farage popping up outside the Senedd and proclaiming victory – people need to go out and vote Plaid Cymru on Thursday.
‘Immigration’.
Is immigration an issue in Cymru?
No, it’s not, is it? Cymru isn’t Kent.
But the saplings who are going to vote for Deform believe it is, because that’s what Nigel says.
Most of the “I’d never vote Tory” lot are now going to vote for a party that’s even more right-wing and full of ex-Tories anyway.
Roasters.
Turns out we can shout, “immigration is not devolved,” until we’re blue in the face, but that doesn’t seem to make a difference.
Labour say that they fear Reform policies so now is the time to get behind Plaid Cymru and make sure that Reform are banished from power. Labour cannot win and they know it so please vote Plaid Cymru on Thursday.
The thought of Farage and the racist English Nationalist Party running Cymru doesn’t even bear a thinking about. Vote Plaid Cymru on Thursday
Please take my comment in the context of the suggested results above.
With the Greens getting so few seats, Labour are going to decide the who is going to form the Welsh government.
Either a Plaid led Plaid/Lab coalition. or
Reform led Reform/Lab/Cons
I can’t imagine Labour wanting the latter coalition, but they may try and use it as leverage to get concessions out of Plaid. In 2007 there was talk of a “Rainbow” coalition to oust Labour will there be one to block Plaid?
Labour would never recover if they ever dared to back an extreme right-wing party like Deform UK becoming the governing party in the Senedd, and they know it. It would give Plaid, the Greens and even the LibDems a stick which they would use constantly to remind the electorate of how they betrayed our country by backing Farage’s repugnant party.
I agree that Labour could end up as kingmakers, which is exactly why Plaid Cymru need to squeeze their vote as much as possible.
That said, I’d seriously doubt Labour would ever work with Reform as junior partners. Just look at what happened to the Lib Dems after going into coalition with the Tories.
Labour’s main line of attack on Plaid has been independence, despite them making it very clear it is not on the agenda anytime soon.