Plaid Cymru leads final Senedd poll ahead of election day
Nation.Cymru staff
Plaid Cymru has moved into the lead in the final major poll before Thursday’s Senedd election, raising the prospect of a historic shift in Welsh politics.
A new survey for ITV Cymru Wales, conducted by YouGov, puts Plaid on 33% of the vote—four points ahead of Reform UK on 29%.
The poll, released just two days before voters go to the polls on 7 May, suggests Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party is on course to become the largest in the Senedd.
Seat projections
Using MRP modelling under the new 96-seat system, Plaid is projected to win 43 seats, compared to 34 for Reform.
Labour is forecast to take 12 seats, with the Conservatives on four, the Greens on two, and the Liberal Democrats on one.
While Plaid would fall short of an outright majority, the figures point to a potential path to government.
Analysts cautioned that relatively small shifts in vote share could still have a significant impact on seat totals.
Voter expectations
The poll also found that 43% of respondents expect Plaid Cymru to lead the next Welsh Government—far ahead of Reform UK on 15%.
Voters were more likely to favour a single-party government (44%) than a coalition (32%), highlighting a preference for clearer leadership after the election.
When asked about the biggest factor influencing their vote, respondents most commonly cited “stopping Reform” and “immigration”.
The findings underline how sharply polarised the campaign has become in its final days.
Tight race
Dr Jac Larner, of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, said the overall picture of the race is now becoming clearer, even if the final outcome remains uncertain.
He said Plaid had opened a “small gap” over Reform in the closing stages of the campaign, but stressed that the contest remained “incredibly close”.
He added that small changes in vote share could produce “outsized impacts” in seat allocation under the new system.
ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the poll reinforced expectations that the election could mark a turning point.
He said: “This latest poll reinforces the message from a year of polls: this week’s vote will be historic and seems all but certain to lead to a change in who leads the Welsh Government.
“However, it’s still impossible to say if Plaid Cymru or Reform UK will be the largest party and who, if anyone, can form a government.”
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “This poll reflects what we’re hearing on the doorstep the length and breadth of Wales in the final days of the campaign. People are making up their minds, and they are deciding to vote Plaid Cymru.
“That’s because they know Plaid Cymru is the best way to stand up for fairness for Wales – from the billions owed in HS2 to power over our natural resources. They know that Plaid Cymru will give Wales the new leadership it needs to improve our NHS, tackle the cost of living with our generous childcare offer and unlock our economy’s potential.
“And they know that only Plaid Cymru can stop billionaire backed Reform from taking Wales backwards.
“This poll shows that there is real momentum behind Plaid and that we can win, but with just days to go, nothing can be taken for granted. We are within touching distance of forming the next government, and every vote will help decide the future of Wales.”
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If this is to be believed once again the Green Party in Wales have flattered to deceive.
Polanski’s ratings have dropped everywhere since the Golders Green stabbings.
And yes, I know he’s not standing, but there again what do the people who put immigration as their top issue for this election think any Welsh Government could do about it?
Reasons for voting don’t necessarily reflect local issues and personalities.
Encouraging but it’s a truism that the only poll that matters is on Thursday. And for the findings of this poll to be realised – and to banish the nightmare of Nigel Farage popping up outside the Senedd and proclaiming victory – people need to go out and vote Plaid Cymru on Thursday.
‘Immigration’.
Is immigration an issue in Cymru?
No, it’s not, is it? Cymru isn’t Kent.
But the saplings who are going to vote for Deform believe it is, because that’s what Nigel says.
Most of the “I’d never vote Tory” lot are now going to vote for a party that’s even more right-wing and full of ex-Tories anyway.
Roasters.
Turns out we can shout, “immigration is not devolved,” until we’re blue in the face, but that doesn’t seem to make a difference.
It did in Caerphilly
Labour say that they fear Reform policies so now is the time to get behind Plaid Cymru and make sure that Reform are banished from power. Labour cannot win and they know it so please vote Plaid Cymru on Thursday.
If Labour in Cymru are fearful of Reform policies then they’d better have a word with Starmer & Co who have been implementing Reform policies since they gained power in 2024.
Yes, even though we have PR for this election, nothing short of an overall Plaid victory will do. Anything else allows de-legtimises the result and gives ammunition to Reform to claim that the election was “stolen”.
The thought of Farage and the racist English Nationalist Party running Cymru doesn’t even bear a thinking about. Vote Plaid Cymru on Thursday
Please take my comment in the context of the suggested results above.
With the Greens getting so few seats, Labour are going to decide the who is going to form the Welsh government.
Either a Plaid led Plaid/Lab coalition. or
Reform led Reform/Lab/Cons
I can’t imagine Labour wanting the latter coalition, but they may try and use it as leverage to get concessions out of Plaid. In 2007 there was talk of a “Rainbow” coalition to oust Labour will there be one to block Plaid?
Labour would never recover if they ever dared to back an extreme right-wing party like Deform UK becoming the governing party in the Senedd, and they know it. It would give Plaid, the Greens and even the LibDems a stick which they would use constantly to remind the electorate of how they betrayed our country by backing Farage’s repugnant party.
I wouldn’t put it past them. Let’s not forget that Labour was far happier to let the Tories in rather than back their own leader at the time, Jeremy Corbyn.
And it’s not as if Labour hasn’t been betraying Cymru for decades anyway.
I agree that Labour could end up as kingmakers, which is exactly why Plaid Cymru need to squeeze their vote as much as possible.
That said, I’d seriously doubt Labour would ever work with Reform as junior partners. Just look at what happened to the Lib Dems after going into coalition with the Tories.
Labour’s main line of attack on Plaid has been independence, despite them making it very clear it is not on the agenda anytime soon.
Plaid would commit political suicide if they entered a coalition with Labour. Those deserting Labour in swathes are doing so for a REASON, and that reason is NOT to see them back in government. They would cause absolute chaos as a junior partner as they would never be able to accept playing second fiddle to Plaid. Plaid must be brave and go it alone if they win a majority, only seeking support from other parties to pass legislation.
Although this is encouraging for Plaid Cymru, it is not a moment for complacency. Support for Reform UK is fairly settled, and simply dismissing them as racists, or that they don’t care about Wales is not going to change the minds of their supporters. Populism feeds on frustration rather than rationality.
The real contest is over Welsh Labour voters who are still weighing up their options.
If Plaid want real leverage after the election, the aim has to be to win enough support so they’re not dependent on Labour to govern. That’s where the balance of power really lies.
IF these polls are correct and the forecast is indeed as tight as is suggested (remember, Caerphilly’s wasn’t that close in the end), then I suspect Plaid are capitalising on a fall in support for the Greens and a further fall in support for Labour following the Mandelson sleaze vote in Parliament. The starts may be aligning but I hope they don’t get complacent. Plaid has a spectacular talent for snapping defeat from the jaws of victory.
Fingers crossed everyone. Come on Rhun.
Voters have a stark choice to make on May 7th: vote either Plaid Cymru or Reform UK. One party, Plaid Cymru, wants Wales to have the powers and levers it has long been denied, so that it can become the country it could be. The other, Reform, seeks to strip Senedd Cymru down to the bare bones and ultimately see it abolished, returning Wales to being an appendage of England, dependent on Whitehall handouts to be used and abused. Sounds a bit Orwellian, doesn’t it? Not really. Reform has already stated that if it forms the Welsh Government and cannot… Read more »
If the polls are correct we’re looking at a Plaid leadership in coalition with Labour.
Plaid have declared that they will not even seek a vote for full independence in this term, we don’t need an expensive review into the subject, simply lead the country properly to the extent that the public decide in future to go for full independence.
Labour can still decide to veto any Plaid policies considered too loony; men walking into women’s changing rooms is as repugnant as English racists taking over this country.
“I’ve never knowingly met any trans people, but I believe the Daily Mail when they tell me trans people are shapeshifting devourers of children.”
Even where Plaid fails to achieve an overall majority, there’s no certainty they will seek a coalition with Labour. It would be political suicide for them to do so.
Now we need to make sure we get out and actually vote on Thursday
Hmmm, Plaid Cymru or… the party of degenerate misogynist rape fantasists? Such a difficult choice. 🙄
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/05/mps-demand-reform-suspend-candidate-over-claims-he-celebrated-of-sikh-women
Encouraging numbers, bu that’s still a lot of people that despise Cymru and it’s people.
Worse still, they keep mentioning immigration. Are we having an influx of dinghies coming up the beach at Ynys Bari?