Plaid Cymru leads Reform by 3% in new Senedd poll
Martin Shipton
Plaid Cymru lead Reform UK by three percentage points, according to a new Senedd election poll undertaken by Beaufort Research for Nation.Cymru.
The latest results show a slight increase in support for Plaid Cymru (up to 30% of the vote, from 29% in Beaufort’s last poll completed in February 2026), while Reform UK is unchanged on 27%, followed by Labour on 17% (down from 20%).
The Green Party is now polling at 11% (up from 7% in February) while the Conservatives have slipped back slightly to 9% (10% in February). The Liberal Democrats have increased their support a little to 6% (5% in January), while 2% say they would vote for some other party (1% in January).
The figures add up to 102% instead of 100% because of rounding.
The Beaufort poll, which asked ‘If there were a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?’ confirms that Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is on course to become First Minister after the Senedd election on May 7. Current First Minister Eluned Morgan is predicted to lose her seat.
As usual, levels of support for parties differ depending on region, gender, age, social grade and whether those polled are Welsh speakers or not.
In North and Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru leads with 34%, followed by Reform on 19%, the Conservatives on 13%, Labour on 12%, the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 9% and others on 4%.
In South West Wales and the Valleys, Plaid leads with 35%, with Reform on 33%, Labour on 17%, the Greens and Conservatives both on 6%, the Lib Dems on 3% and others on 0%.
In Cardiff and South East Wales, Reform lead with 25%, ahead of Labour on 21%, the Greens on 20%, Plaid Cymru on 16%, the Conservatives on 10%, the Lib Dems on 6% and others 2%.
Among males, Reform and Plaid Cymru jointly lead with 29% each, , followed by Labour on 19%, Conservatives on 10%, Lib Dems and Greens on 6% each and others on 2%.
Females, on the other hand, put Plaid in the lead with 31%, followed byReform on 24%, the Greens on 16%, Labour on 14%, the Conservatives on 8%, the Lib Dems on 5% and others 1%.
Among those aged 16 to 34, Plaid leads with 36%, followed by the Greens on 27%, Labour 16%, Reform 11%, Lib Dems 6%, the Conservatives 4% and others 0%.
For people aged 35 to 54, Reform leads with 35%, ahead of Plaid Cymru on 21%, Labour on 16%, Greens 13%, the Conservatives and Lib Dems both on 6%, and others on 2%.
For people aged 55 and over, Plaid Cymru leads with 31%, followed by Reform on 28%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 12%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 4% and others 2%.
Among those in the more prosperous ABC1 social grades, Plaid leads with 29%, followed by Reform on 23%, Labour on 19%, the Greens on 11%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Lib Dems on 7% and others 1%.
Meanwhile, among those in the less prosperous C2DE social grades, Reform leads with 32%, followed by Plaid on 30%, Labour 13%, Greens 10%, the Conservatives 9%, Lib Dems 3% and others 2%.
Welsh speakers
Among Welsh speakers, Plaid leads with 44%, followed by Reform on 21%, Labour 13%, the Greens on 8%, the Conservatives 7%, the Lib Dems 4% and others 3%.
But among those who cannot speak Welsh, Reform is in the lead with 29% support, followed by Plaid on 25%, Labour on 18%, the Greens 12%, the Conservatives 9%, Lib Dems 6% and others 1%.
A projection of seats based by Cavendish Cymru on the poll findings suggests that Plaid Cymru would win 37 seats, Reform UK 30, Labour 15, the Conservatives 6, the Green Party 6 and the Liberal Democrats 2.
A geographical breakdown would see seats in the 16 “super constituencies” distributed as follows:
Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2.
Bangor Conwy Môn: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Conservatives 1.
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 2; Reform 1; Green 1.
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Liberal Democrats 1; Labour 1,
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Plaid Cymru 2; Reform 1, Labour 1, Green 1, Lib Dem 1.
Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid Cymru 2; Reform 2; Labour 1; Green 1,
Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Green 1.
Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Conservatives 1.
Clwyd: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Conservatives 1/
Fflint Wrecsam: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Conservatives 1.
Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2.
Gŵyr Abertawe: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 2.
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 1; Conservative 1.
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 2.
Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Reform 2; Labour 1; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservatives 1; Green 1.
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2.
Fieldwork was undertaken between March 2 and March 22 2026. The voting intention data is based on 459 adults aged 16+ out of the total survey sample of 1,000 who expressed a preference for a party and were 9 or 10 out of 10 in terms of certainty to vote at a Senedd election, so it excludes those who would not vote, prefer not to say who they’d vote for, do not know how they’d vote or who scored 0-8 in terms of certainty to vote.
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.
Should be 30% with all these Defraud UK candidates dropping out
Still quite frightening that there are that many Cymru haters in our communities. What on earth has happened to our country where hatred is tolerated at this level?
They are the angry and the ignored. Plaid Cymru must present a positive and credible answer to their sentiments, as it’s evident Labour don’t.
Or ever have done.
They have every right to be angry, but zero right to inflict the filth of racism into Cymru or remove what little culture we have left by supporting a party that would happily destroy the entire of Cymru.
If you voted for Brexit, not sure if you have any right to be angry, let alone vote for more of the same.
Good point
Wales voted leave, it’s called democracy.
Your narrative is part of the problem. There are no morally right / wrong ways to vote. Your voting intention is no more or less noble than anyone elses. Until we can ALL respect different viewpoints, we will continue to have this form of toxicity in our politics.
There is a wrong way to vote.
If one supports a party where racism and hatred are the standard, then that’s pretty wrong.
It means that person supports that kind of behavior, would you want those types as neighbors?
So, the question was asked a full month ago.
I cannot get my head around this Reform are the new Tories the damage Thatcher who Farage said he admires the damage they done to Wales with the coal Industry and steel industry and supporting jobs to those industry costing around FIFTY THOUSAND JOBS that is a load of lost jobs for a small country like ours
It’s the hundreds of millions of EU funds that were squandered by Labour on their pals rather than used to better the lot of people in the valleys. Cast your mind back to Communities First. A “facilitator” usually living in a leafy Cardiff suburb in the payroll or perhaps imported from England, presiding over a ‘community cafe’ which employed a local part time on the minimum wage or even got free staff as volunteers. Now closed, the chapel or community hub now derelict, with lot’s of angry people left in poverty.
Hundreds of MILLIONS WASTED you say i very much doubt it millions wasted by Liebour yes Tory or Labour governments do not give Wales that sort of Money
Labour shut more pits than Thatcher
ok so in the long term coal wasn’t going to be a form of mass employment anywhere. It’s sad that we lost those jobs in the mines – Im from Barnsley – but if you put this emphasis on coal mines you come across as a backward looking person. The future will be different from the 19th century, You have to accept that.
My Dad was a GP and I often travelled around with him as he visited his patients. Near us were three coal pits and we went down one pit to see the conditions men had to work in. It was hot and dusty and dangerous. But going into some of the miners houses I saw what pneumoconiosis does to a miners lungs. Mining ruins lives, it’s as simple as that. I believe we should have open cast mines but no one should have to work underground ever again. Thatcher made the right call but for the wrong reasons.
Its a sad reflection on sections of the Welsh electorate that a party (Reform) that is in disarray and hemorrhaging candidates on a daily basis can still appear to command that level of support
It’s wrong to assume that Reform are a serious political party. Just a bunch of grifters at the top and fruitcakes at the bottom, incapable of running an English council let alone serve any useful role in a legislative parliament. Same with Ukip. Remember they had a few elected before but within a year they were either on the sick, or never turned up, caught with their hands in the till or defected back to the Tories.
But as was proven with the Brexit scam, some of the electorate are actually gullible enough to support farage.
Superb article, but we need to remember that many who will vote Reform will not admit that they will vote Reform.
So to avoid another Boris / Brexit scenario, Plaid need a concerted effort to appeal to the majority to get the majority. We can then forget about fractional minorities and send the Reform racist bigots back to England.
Time will tell but I think Plaid is making a strategic mistake in thinking that it can campaign in “change” rhetoric but actually just offer a continuity Labour agenda. I think the call for change is larger than the polls suggest and Plaid may just be being too complacent in assuming that they can drift to victory on vague language of change while actually planning to change nothing.
Labour and Green supporters need to get behind Plaid, no time to let Reform distort our Senedd with their toxic brand, and keep their seats to an absolute minimum.
It’s a proportional system.
Exactly.
Who will be the biggest party will be very tight. Even though Reform will struggle to govern as most parties would not touch them with a bargepole, there is a danger in the Greens calling for votes for them to hold Plaid to account. Reform pipping Plaid as the biggest party would be constantly used to undermine the legitimacy of the Senedd, so it is critical that Plaid finish first.
Not just first but more importantly with the new system, with the most number of seats.
That’s why people need to vote for Plaid rather than the Greens or Labour so that we can ensure that Deform UK do not win a “moral victory” that they would weaponise for the next four years if they are “robbed” of the opportunity to form the next government.
Also, even though this is a decent poll for Plaid, it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt because it surveyed far fewer people than the recent YouGov poll that questioned 3,000+ people.