Plaid Cymru leads Reform by three points in Senedd poll

Martin Shipton 

Plaid Cymru holds a three-point lead over Reform UK in voting intentions for a Senedd election, according to a Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru.

The poll, carried out before the recent ITV undercover documentary that showed multiple Reform figures making racist and misogynistic comments, put Plaid Cymru on 33% (down 2.4 percentage points since the May Senedd election), Reform on 30% (up 0.7), Labour on 15% (up 3.9), the Conservatives on 11% (up 0.3), the Green Party on 6% (down 0.7), the Liberal Democrats on 4% (down 0.5) and other parties on 2%.

The results showed neither a big boost for Labour nor a downturn for Reform.

As always, there were variations in support by region, gender, age, social grade and whether respondents spoke Welsh.

In North and Mid Wales, Plaid Cymru led with 31% support, followed by Reform on 24%, the Conservatives on 17%, Labour on 10%, the Greens on 7%, the Lib Dems on 4% and other parties on 6%.

In South West Wales and the Valleys, Plaid Cymru led with 36%, followed by Reform on 33%, Labour on 18%, the Conservatives on 6%, the Greens on 4%, the Lib Dems on 2% and other parties on 1%.

In Cardiff and South East Wales, Reform led with 30%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 28%, Labour on 13%, the Conservatives on 13%, the Greens on 9%, the Lib Dems on 6% and other parties on 1%.

Reform led among men with 34%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 31%, Labour on 15%, the Conservatives on 11%, the Greens on 3%, the Lib Dems on 3% and other parties on 3%.

Among women, Plaid Cymru led with 35%, 10 percentage points ahead of Reform on 25%, followed by Labour on 14%, the Conservatives on 11%, the Greens on 8%, the Lib Dems on 4% and other parties on 2%.

Among those aged 16–34, Plaid Cymru led with 53%, followed by Labour on 15%, the Greens on 10%, Reform on 7%, the Lib Dems on 6%, the Conservatives on 5% and other parties on 4%.

Among those aged 35–54, Plaid Cymru led with 32%, followed by Reform on 31%, Labour on 17%, the Conservatives on 11%, the Greens on 5%, the Lib Dems on 2% and other parties on 2%.

Among those aged 55 and over, Reform led with 38%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 25%, the Conservatives on 14%, Labour on 13%, the Greens on 5%, the Lib Dems on 3% and other parties on 2%.

Social grade

In terms of social grade, respondents in the ABC1 category put Plaid Cymru in the lead with 37%, followed by Reform on 22%, Labour on 15%, the Conservatives on 13%, the Greens on 7%, the Lib Dems on 4% and other parties on 1%.

Respondents in the C2DE category put Reform in the lead with 40%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 26%, Labour on 14%, the Conservatives on 8%, the Greens on 4%, the Lib Dems on 3% and other parties on 4%.

Welsh speakers put Plaid Cymru on 51%, followed by Labour on 17%, Reform on 16%, the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 6%, the Lib Dems on 1% and other parties on 1%.

Those who could not speak Welsh put Reform in the lead with 34%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 26%, Labour on 14%, the Conservatives on 12%, the Greens on 6%, the Lib Dems on 5% and other parties on 3%.

Based on a projection by Cavendish Cymru, Plaid Cymru would win 41 seats (down two from May’s Senedd election), Reform 32 (down two), Labour 13 (up four), the Conservatives eight (up one), the Greens one (down one) and the Lib Dems one (no change).

Here is a breakdown of the seat projection by constituency:

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1

Bangor Conwy Môn: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservatives 1

Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Lib Dems 1

Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1

Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 1, Labour 1, Greens 1

Casnewydd Islwyn: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Conservatives 1

Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservatives 1

Clwyd: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservatives 1, Labour 1

Fflint Wrecsam: Reform 3, Plaid Cymru 1, Labour 1, Conservatives 1

Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2

Gŵyr Abertawe: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Conservatives 1

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Conservatives 1

Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1

Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Labour 1, Conservatives 1

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1

Interviews

Fieldwork was undertaken between September 21 and October 11. A total of 1,000 interviews were completed and analysed.

The headline voting intention data is based on 488 respondents who were aged 16 or over, stated a preference for a party and rated their certainty of voting in a Senedd election as nine or 10 out of 10.

Some totals do not add up to 100% because of rounding.

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