Plaid Cymru leads Reform UK in new Senedd poll as Labour slips to fifth
Plaid Cymru holds a narrow lead over Reform UK in a new Senedd election poll, while Labour has fallen to fifth place.
The survey by Find Out Now, conducted between April 18 and 22, puts Plaid Cymru on 29%, ahead of Reform UK on 27%.
The Welsh Conservatives are third on 13%, followed by the Green Party on 11%.
Welsh Labour has slipped to 10%, down from 18% in a previous poll in June, placing the party fifth, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats stand on 6%.
The poll also found strong scepticism about the future of the NHS under a Reform-led government.
A majority of voters, 55% to 16%, said they did not believe the NHS would be safe under Reform. When undecided respondents were excluded, that margin widened to 77% to 23%.
The findings are based on a sample of 2,012 adults across Great Britain, with results weighted to be representative of Wales by age, gender, region, Welsh language ability and 2024 general election vote.
Only respondents who said they were “definitely” or “very likely” to vote were included in the headline voting intention figures. Those who initially answered “don’t know” were prompted again, with remaining undecided voters excluded from the final calculation.
The methodology also filtered out those who did not vote at the last general election unless they said they were certain to vote this time.
The poll was commissioned by Plaid Cymru, although Find Out Now said the methodology was consistent with its previous Welsh polling.
Wider margin
The latest findings differ slightly from an Ipsos poll published earlier this week, which also put Plaid Cymru in the lead but with a wider margin.
That survey had Plaid on 30% and Reform UK on 25%, with Labour on 15% and the Conservatives on 12%, suggesting a more competitive race for second place and a stronger showing for Labour than in the latest figures.
While both polls point to Plaid Cymru leading the field, the Find Out Now survey indicates a tighter contest with Reform UK and a sharper decline in Labour support, underlining the volatility of the race ahead of polling day.
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Labour have yet to hit rock bottom in Wales. It’s coming though and deservedly so.
Yet reform rise. Far better Labour were second here.
My feeling on the Caerphilly election was the polls got it right. And there was a panic attack by the voters that Reform could actually get the seat. As both Reform and Plaid currently have barely a ciggy paper between them there will be a panic from what is left of the Labour support and supported by a revulsion of Mandygate more will walk to the Plaid camp. We keep on hearing that the polls are swinging from one party to another by one or two percentage points. But really this is not so. YouGov have published the poll with… Read more »
I predict the nearer the Senedd election gets the further plaid Cymru will get over Reform in the polls.
I hope so as well but if reform get the next lions share of the vote, they get a lot of committee places. This isn’t over if Plaid win.
Yes, we must not be complacent. Winning power is the first hurdle; working with a UK Labour government and a Welsh Secretary hostile to Wales is another.
I’m amazed both by the numbers of polls, and the number of articles on the polls. Barely any in depth discussion on policy and what, if anything, changes next month.
I can’t help but feel we get the governance we deserve. we can’t expect accountability either such shallow public debate.
polling needs to be banned in the uk
Although Scotland,Wales and much of England are getting elections. Only the Welsh Election is the one that is becoming a surprise, that Labour support has collapsed and we really do not know which party will actually win.
A vote for Labour is a vote for Reform
Except where Labour are going to win then its the other way around.