Plaid Cymru leads Reform UK in new Senedd poll as Labour slips to fifth

Plaid Cymru holds a narrow lead over Reform UK in a new Senedd election poll, while Labour has fallen to fifth place.

The survey by Find Out Now, conducted between April 18 and 22, puts Plaid Cymru on 29%, ahead of Reform UK on 27%.

The Welsh Conservatives are third on 13%, followed by the Green Party on 11%.

Welsh Labour has slipped to 10%, down from 18% in a previous poll in June, placing the party fifth, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats stand on 6%.

The poll also found strong scepticism about the future of the NHS under a Reform-led government.

A majority of voters, 55% to 16%, said they did not believe the NHS would be safe under Reform. When undecided respondents were excluded, that margin widened to 77% to 23%.

The findings are based on a sample of 2,012 adults across Great Britain, with results weighted to be representative of Wales by age, gender, region, Welsh language ability and 2024 general election vote.

Only respondents who said they were “definitely” or “very likely” to vote were included in the headline voting intention figures. Those who initially answered “don’t know” were prompted again, with remaining undecided voters excluded from the final calculation.

The methodology also filtered out those who did not vote at the last general election unless they said they were certain to vote this time.

The poll was commissioned by Plaid Cymru, although Find Out Now said the methodology was consistent with its previous Welsh polling.

Wider margin

The latest findings differ slightly from an Ipsos poll published earlier this week, which also put Plaid Cymru in the lead but with a wider margin.

That survey had Plaid on 30% and Reform UK on 25%, with Labour on 15% and the Conservatives on 12%, suggesting a more competitive race for second place and a stronger showing for Labour than in the latest figures.

While both polls point to Plaid Cymru leading the field, the Find Out Now survey indicates a tighter contest with Reform UK and a sharper decline in Labour support, underlining the volatility of the race ahead of polling day.