Plaid Cymru leads Reform UK in new Senedd poll

Plaid Cymru holds a narrow lead over Reform UK in a new Senedd election poll, but more than half of voters say they could still change their mind before polling day.

The survey by Ipsos, carried out between 2 and 8 April, puts Plaid Cymru on 30%, ahead of Reform UK on 25%, with Welsh Labour trailing in third on 15%.

However, the poll highlights significant volatility in the race, with 52% of voters saying they may still change their mind, suggesting the outcome remains highly uncertain.

Reform UK supporters were found to be the most committed, with 66% saying they are definitely decided, compared to around half of Plaid and Conservative voters, and around six in ten Labour and Green supporters who say they could still switch.

The findings point to a fragmented political landscape, with just 22% of voters expecting a hung Senedd with Plaid as the largest party, and little expectation of any party securing a majority.

Low trust and dissatisfaction

The research also reveals widespread dissatisfaction with political leadership and government performance in Wales.

Around 64% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the Welsh Government, while 68% expressed dissatisfaction with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

More than six in ten people (62%) said they did not believe the current Welsh Labour government deserved to be re-elected.

Despite this, trust in political parties remains low across key issues. Plaid Cymru was rated most trusted to stand up for Wales (33%) and grow the economy (22%), while Reform UK led on immigration (25%).

Leadership questions

Rhun ap Iorwerth was the only leader to record a positive net satisfaction rating (+7), but voters remain divided on whether he is ready to become First Minister.

Around 27% said he is ready, while 25% said he is not, and a significant number of voters remain undecided.

There are also doubts about party readiness, with opinion split on whether Plaid Cymru is ready for government. However, 59% of voters said Reform UK is not ready to govern, compared with just 20% who believe it is.

Public services concerns

The poll found that two-thirds of voters (67%) believe public services in Wales have worsened over the past five years, with most blaming the Welsh Government.

Satisfaction with overall government performance stands at just 23%.

The NHS (74%) and cost of living (67%) were identified as the most important issues influencing how people will vote.

Immigration also remains a key dividing line, particularly among Reform UK supporters, 72% of whom cited it as a top issue, compared to 42% of the general population.

Constitutional question 

Despite ongoing political debate, constitutional issues appear to be a lower priority for voters.

While 37% support giving the Senedd more powers, only 11% back full independence for Wales. Even among Plaid supporters, just 21% favour independence.

“Result still in the balance”

Gideon Skinner, senior director of politics at Ipsos, said the findings showed an electorate still weighing its options.

He said: “Our latest findings suggest a Welsh electorate that is currently weighing its options amidst significant pessimism about the economy and public services, and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Welsh Labour Government.

“While Plaid Cymru holds a slight lead in voting intention… they still have to convince the public they are ready for government and can deliver on the key issues.”

He added that Reform UK had been successful in consolidating support among a segment of voters, but that doubts remained about its readiness for power.

With half of voters yet to make a final decision, he said, “the final result is still in the balance.”

Ipsos surveyed 747 adults aged 16+ in Wales using its UK KnowledgePanel between 2–8 April 2026.
Results are weighted to be representative of the Welsh population, with a margin of error of approximately ±4%.