Plaid Cymru leads Reform UK in new Senedd poll
Plaid Cymru holds a narrow lead over Reform UK in a new Senedd election poll, but more than half of voters say they could still change their mind before polling day.
The survey by Ipsos, carried out between 2 and 8 April, puts Plaid Cymru on 30%, ahead of Reform UK on 25%, with Welsh Labour trailing in third on 15%.
However, the poll highlights significant volatility in the race, with 52% of voters saying they may still change their mind, suggesting the outcome remains highly uncertain.
Reform UK supporters were found to be the most committed, with 66% saying they are definitely decided, compared to around half of Plaid and Conservative voters, and around six in ten Labour and Green supporters who say they could still switch.
The findings point to a fragmented political landscape, with just 22% of voters expecting a hung Senedd with Plaid as the largest party, and little expectation of any party securing a majority.
Low trust and dissatisfaction
The research also reveals widespread dissatisfaction with political leadership and government performance in Wales.
Around 64% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the Welsh Government, while 68% expressed dissatisfaction with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
More than six in ten people (62%) said they did not believe the current Welsh Labour government deserved to be re-elected.
Despite this, trust in political parties remains low across key issues. Plaid Cymru was rated most trusted to stand up for Wales (33%) and grow the economy (22%), while Reform UK led on immigration (25%).
Leadership questions
Rhun ap Iorwerth was the only leader to record a positive net satisfaction rating (+7), but voters remain divided on whether he is ready to become First Minister.
Around 27% said he is ready, while 25% said he is not, and a significant number of voters remain undecided.
There are also doubts about party readiness, with opinion split on whether Plaid Cymru is ready for government. However, 59% of voters said Reform UK is not ready to govern, compared with just 20% who believe it is.
Public services concerns
The poll found that two-thirds of voters (67%) believe public services in Wales have worsened over the past five years, with most blaming the Welsh Government.
Satisfaction with overall government performance stands at just 23%.
The NHS (74%) and cost of living (67%) were identified as the most important issues influencing how people will vote.
Immigration also remains a key dividing line, particularly among Reform UK supporters, 72% of whom cited it as a top issue, compared to 42% of the general population.
Constitutional question
Despite ongoing political debate, constitutional issues appear to be a lower priority for voters.
While 37% support giving the Senedd more powers, only 11% back full independence for Wales. Even among Plaid supporters, just 21% favour independence.
“Result still in the balance”
Gideon Skinner, senior director of politics at Ipsos, said the findings showed an electorate still weighing its options.
He said: “Our latest findings suggest a Welsh electorate that is currently weighing its options amidst significant pessimism about the economy and public services, and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Welsh Labour Government.
“While Plaid Cymru holds a slight lead in voting intention… they still have to convince the public they are ready for government and can deliver on the key issues.”
He added that Reform UK had been successful in consolidating support among a segment of voters, but that doubts remained about its readiness for power.
With half of voters yet to make a final decision, he said, “the final result is still in the balance.”
Ipsos surveyed 747 adults aged 16+ in Wales using its UK KnowledgePanel between 2–8 April 2026.
Results are weighted to be representative of the Welsh population, with a margin of error of approximately ±4%.
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The thing that really bothers me about Llafur Cymru right now is that everything that they post just empowers Reform Saes’s chances. I understand it’s difficult to admit that they got everything wrong, but they’re needlessly splitting the votes, and they currently only have 14% I feel that all parties understand that Refirm Saes is going to be a disaster for anybody who isn’t one of the wealthiest and greediest people in Britain. Surely even the Greens can see that at 10%, they’re just going to be damaging the country by fighting for a few measly points that in reality… Read more »
The figures concerning how many support full independence is extremely misleading. Eleven percent chose the full independence option from a multi choice selection, rather than giving people a yes or no option when asking them how they would vote in an independence referendum, which is very different indeed. Isn’t it funny how you never hear of Scots being asked how they’d vote in a multi-option referendum!
Only Plaid can stop Capita Dan outsourcing Wales.
Although reporting after the YouGov poll, the survey dates for this poll by Ipsos (2-8 April.) were earlier than the YouGov (6-15 April). The YouGov survey was four times greater with over 3000 voters questioned so should be given greater weight than this poll.
The appearance of this poll is misleading. It was actually conducted earlier than the recently published YouGov poll, and had a quarter of the respondents of youGov. So it is probably less representative of the current situation.
Polling should’ve stopped weeks ago. Notably in this election, policy has barely been discussed.
Only 21% of even Plaid supporters want independence? If that is true, Cymru is screwed. We will be in thrall to the English forever.
I am not convinced that Plaid will do a better job than Labour because reality (I hope I am wrong) but bang the indy drum and I am away.
I am interested in indy, but not convinced yet.
Plaid is the best option we’ll have for a long time. Independence is a big step, but I’m absolutely convinced it’s worth it, although it’s best we build Wales up before a referendum, as Plaid plans to do. There’ll be plenty of time to be convinced
The conversation needs to be split in half. First get everyone agreeing they want a better Wales before deciding how to deliver it. No reasonable person should oppose that yet none of the other parties are offering it. Labour doesn’t want people getting richer in case they become Tories. The Dems only talk a talk of managed decline, as though decline is somehow obviously nudge wink culturally inevitable. The Greens and Reform just want a test bed for their extreme left and right ideology. And for the Cons the whole point of Wales is to service England. Once better is… Read more »
As I pointed out in my earlier post, that figure is very misleading. Unionist parties and their friends in the media like to offer people a multi option scenario where they have to pick one option from that list. That’s because it will always give you a lower percentage choosing full independence, as we’ve seen in earlier polls. Eleven percent chose independence in this scenario and sixteen percent wanted to abolish the Senedd. The question is, how would the other 73% vote in a binary ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to independence referendum? Would the largest number in this poll (that said… Read more »
Well I hope you are right, because if such a low percentage of Plaid supporters appear not to want independence, what hope of persuading others? There would be no point in an independence referendum unless polls consistently show a large majority in favour; at this rate, it would seem that the road to independence will be long and hard. I vote Plaid because I want to see Cymru independent, in the EU, and above all free of English domination.
Don’t forget any Reform types sit in the Senedd can end up on committees. They need to be destroyed at the polls or they will still harm Wales.
Reform candidates David Prior, standing in the Gateshead ward of Saltwell, George Parnell, standing in Hampshire (Fleet Town) and Hart (Fleet Central) and John Black standing in Blackburn with Darwen (Little Harwood & Whitebirk) all appear on a leaked list of BNP members and contacts from 2007-2008.
I wonder how many Senedd candidates get their pristine white robes and meticulously recreated SS uniforms dry cleaned?