News

Plaid Cymru maintains polling lead over Reform as Labour enjoys ‘Burnham bounce’

15 Sep 2026 4 minute read

Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth (L) photo Peter Byrne/PA Wire. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Photo Yui Mok/PA Wire

Nation.Cymru staff

Plaid Cymru has maintained its lead over Reform UK in the latest Senedd voting intention poll, with relatively little movement in support for either of Wales’ two largest parties.

The latest Barn Cymru poll for ITV Cymru Wales puts Plaid on 32%, down one point since May, with Reform on 27%, down two points.

Welsh Labour is on 13%, up one, while the Conservatives have risen two points to 11%. The Greens are on 7%, the Liberal Democrats 5% and others 5%.

The poll was conducted before the dramatic resignation of Reform’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas on Tuesday following his arrest on suspicion of assault and controlling or coercive behaviour.

Mr Thomas denies wrongdoing and has been bailed by police pending further enquiries.

His personal approval rating had already fallen, with 20% of those questioned saying he was doing a good job, compared with 26% previously.

First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth also saw his approval rating fall from 44% before taking office to 36%, although he remained substantially ahead of the other Welsh party leaders.

New Welsh Labour leader Ken Skates recorded a 15% approval rating, while Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar was on 18% and Welsh Green leader Anthony Slaughter on 14%.

The poll found a much more dramatic shift when voters were asked how they would vote in a Westminster election.

Plaid Cymru remains ahead on 27%, despite falling three points, while Reform has dropped seven points to 19%.

Welsh Labour has more than doubled its support from the previous poll, rising 10 points to 18%, leaving it just one point behind Reform.

The Conservatives are on 16%, up four points, while the Greens have fallen five points to 8%.

The results suggest Labour may be benefiting from a “Burnham bounce” following Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister, although there is little evidence so far that the improvement is carrying over into Senedd voting intention.

Mr Burnham was also the most highly rated UK party leader in the survey, with 45% saying he was doing a good job.

Nigel Farage’s approval rating fell from 36% to 26%, while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch rose four points to 37%.

Senedd Voting intention Barn Cymru poll for ITV Cymru Wales

Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said: “Four months out from May’s Senedd election, little has shifted in party vote intention.

“Plaid Cymru retains its lead over Reform, suggesting no penalty for time in power. First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth remains popular, with a net positive approval rating — a rarity for a Welsh First Minister in recent times.

“The more striking movement is in Westminster voting intention. Reform UK has lost over a quarter of its support at Westminster level, while Labour’s has more than doubled — though this isn’t a direct swap between the two.”

He said Reform was losing support to the Conservatives and Restore, while Labour was gaining from Green and Plaid supporters.

Dr Larner added: “Labour will take heart from generally positive views of Andy Burnham, likely fuelling their Westminster gains, but the party’s Senedd group may be less pleased: that boost shows little sign of transferring to devolved-level support during what should be a honeymoon period for the new Prime Minister.”

Welsh independence

The poll also found support for Welsh independence had fallen to its lowest level in the series for more than three years.

Asked how they would vote in a referendum on Wales becoming independent from the UK, 20% said Yes, down two points and the lowest figure recorded by the poll since May 2023.

ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the results showed Plaid would be pleased that perceptions of its performance in government had improved but would want to see its overall support grow.

He added: “Labour has much to be hopeful about at both ends of the M4, although the ‘Burnham bounce’ is yet to have a big impact on the Senedd.”

The Senedd voting intention figures are based on a YouGov MRP model using a sample of 845 adults, with fieldwork carried out between September 7 and 13. The figures were weighted to be representative of likely voters in Wales aged 16 and over.

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