Plaid Cymru may need Labour deal to take power despite polling lead – new survey
Plaid Cymru could be forced into a post-election deal with Welsh Labour to form a government, despite polling as the largest party ahead of the Senedd election.
A new survey by More in Common suggests Plaid is on course to win 30 seats, narrowly ahead of Reform on 28, with Labour falling to third on 24.
The findings point to a fragmented Senedd, with 49 seats required for a majority, meaning Plaid would likely need to strike an agreement with Labour to secure power.
However, Wales uses a proportional voting system, meaning no party is expected to win an outright majority, and post-election deals between parties are a common feature of Senedd politics.
The poll, based on more than 2,500 respondents across Wales, is the first MRP analysis from More in Common for the 2026 election and reflects a significant shift in the political landscape.
Recent polling from other organisations has also indicated a significant decline in Welsh Labour’s vote share compared to previous elections.
Surveys by firms including YouGov and Find Out Now have all pointed to Labour losing ground after nearly three decades in power in Wales.
While Plaid Cymru has centred its campaign on replacing Labour and delivering “new leadership”, the arithmetic suggested by the latest polling indicates a deal between the two parties could prove necessary.
Both the Welsh Greens and Welsh Liberal Democrats, forecast to win a small number of seats, have signalled openness to talks with Plaid, but even combined may not provide a stable majority.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said the scale of political change in Wales had been striking.
He said: “Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 general election was less than two years ago – the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales.
“Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place – and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour first minister.
“Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh government for the first time.”
Complex
However, he added that forming a government could prove complex, with Labour still likely to play a significant role despite its reduced position.
The poll also suggests Reform is on course for a significant breakthrough across Wales, overtaking the Conservatives, who are projected to fall to fourth place with just seven seats.
The More in Common survey was conducted between January and April among 2,519 people of voting age in Wales.
Scotland
A separate More in Common poll in Scotland suggests the SNP would remain the largest party at Holyrood with 56 seats, but fall short of a pro-independence majority alongside the Scottish Greens.
In contrast, unionist parties combined could hold a narrow majority, although divisions between them make any coordinated approach uncertain.
The poll indicates Reform UK could emerge as the second-largest party on 22 seats, pushing Labour into third on 17, while the Conservatives are projected to fall sharply to 12 seats.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to make gains, rising to 14 MSPs.
Despite those shifts, the overall picture remains highly unpredictable. More than half of Scotland’s constituency seats are considered marginal, meaning small changes in voter behaviour could significantly alter the final outcome.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said the findings reflected the pressures facing long-standing governments.
He said: “Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency… but the biggest takeaway from this model is the sheer uncertainty that six-party politics creates.”
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Always complications. I am sure they make the rules up as they go along!! If I vote for Plaid I want Plaid only not a deal with another failed party.
Frank I suppose then your political purity means that you would prefer to see a Reform/Tory coalition government than a Plaid led government in Wales.
No. I said Plaid.
Why don’t you stamp your foot to really make the point. It’s not your democracy and if the final proportional numbers mean voters are asking parties to work together in the national interest that’s what they must do.
I beg your pardon. Why should I stamp my foot?
More in Common are a Labour based British think tank. This article is drivel. Little understanding of Wales or the Senedd. What they fail to realise is that the ruling party in the Senedd does not have to command and outright majority unlike Westminster a bi-partisan chamber. It Plaid Cymru wins the election but does not 50% or more of MSs, it does not have to form a coalition or pact with another party, unless of course, the other parties do. They are suggesting Reform coming to an arrangement with Labour or the Greens as an opposition bloc. Is this… Read more »
Even so it still suggests that Plaid cannot be complacent. The last thing they will want is to be dependant on Welsh Labour to form a government.
Latest opinion polls show Plaid Cymru on 43 seats, Reform on 30, Labour on 12, Green on 10 and Conservatives on 1. Even if Reform and the Tories did a pact it would still be well short of any challenge to a Plaid Cymru government.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2026-03-24/fm-eluned-morgan-on-course-to-lose-seat-in-senedd-election-itv-wales-poll
Also, to get an overall majority that being 48 the Greens are as equally poised as Labour. In reality, this would not be necessary as both Green and Labour have ruled out working with Reform. Plaid Cymru is fighting for every vote.
“Latest opinion polls show…” no that was ONE poll. This is another.
No it’s not. The More In Common one is a metro-centric poll in different tranches starting in January of a few hundred a pop added up to meet the sample size threshold. Does not meet the academic stats certification, which the YouGov one does. Not all polls are born equal. Also it should be noted that More In Common was established after the murder of a Labour MP and it has a pre-defined lens on how it does stuff and sees politics.
You’re right. Recent polls regarding Westminster election voting intention have suggested that Plaid have a bigger lead than this in Wales, so it’s hard to believe that they’re not polling at a higher level for Senedd elections.
If it looks like that’s happening, then Plaid lose my vote.
Cymru is done with Westminster, Cymru is done with labour’s abuse and destruction.
Who’d you vote for instead? Any other choice, or not voting at all, is a vote for Reform.
Rather a silly thing to say. How will you be 100% certain that it’ll be a Plaid-Labour government before votes are even cast? You may be taken by surprise and see Plaid close to a majority on its own, and disappointed with yourself for not giving Plaid a cross in the ballot.
Has labour rules out a coalition with Reform? Mathematically, it’s an option on the table! Putting Reform into power would certainly turn people against them by the next GE
Some say that was London Labour’s original plan for Wales – sacrifice Wales in 26 to save England in 29. Certainly it would explain the lack of real investment by central government, except a few high street flowerpots and filling some gaps left by the Tories, these last two years.
People are more upset at this than reform taking power? OK, what if they have to do an alliance with the Cons or Reform?
I can vote for them, though one of the worries I have is they will be too insular and I think reality will crash into their hopes on day one. Though I do hope they make a decent go of it.
Plaid are all in favour of rejoining the EU, which in no way can be described as insular.
The headline is misleading.
Plaid’s leader has signalled a preference for forming a minority administration in these cirmcumstances. This is exactly what the SNP did in 2007 – before winning an absolute majority in the following election.
This is entirely realistic. After all, AMs from Lab / Green / LibDem are never going to support an alternative ReformUK-led administration.
Correct. Plaid has to go for a minority administration in these circumstances. A coalition with Labour would be like going swimming in concrete socks.
This will be unfortunate, as there is a common misconception that Plaid is just a slightly more Welsh version of Labour, and any cooperation between Plaid and Labour reinforces this unfortunate thinking. But that’s the messy reality of politics and every day life. Sometimes there’s got to be cooperation and compromise, and often practicality is the enemy of principle.
MIC polling appears to suggest Reform will dominate in my constituency. For once I hope this is a methodological blip.
This election puts to bed the myth that PR eliminates the need for tactical voting. Anyone voting for who they really want rather than the party most likely to beat Reform nationally will help Reform “win” even if they can’t govern, gifting them a stolen election rigged democracy narrative to use as a pretext in 2029 to Abolish Wales.
Even if this particular poll turns out to be inaccurate, it’s still possible that Labour support is not quite as weak as some recent surveys suggest. A proportion of voters may currently be telling pollsters they’ll vote Plaid or Green as a signal to Keir Starmer, but then revert to Labour on polling day.
Also even though Foreign policy is not devolved, Starmer’s refusal to follow Donald Trump into an illegal war could help Labour hold on to wavering voters. I hope I am wrong.
You make a valid point. Old habits die hard and I suspect that the Labour vote is more resilient than some polls suggest (not that I think they are going finish higher than third). I also think that there are potential Reform voters out there who won’t admit it. Add that to the fact that the last seat(s) on the list could be decided by small margins, then it’s far from in the bag for Plaid.
Frank wants the same as the rest of us a fair system with our party always winning.
To stop this possible scenario, we must vote for a majority Plaid Cymru Welsh Government in May. It’s no good removing Welsh Labour from power after 27 years only to let them dictate policy through the back door. Welsh Labour couldn’t fight for Wales’ interests as Welsh Government, so the idea they would support a Plaid Cymru Welsh Government against UK Labour is fanciful. They’re accustomed to capitulating, not defending our nation’s interests. Consider this warning: Nigel Farage’s junior, Dan Thomas, with the support of Darren Millar, not only wants to dismantle Welsh devolution but also to pave the way… Read more »
Unrealistic. A majority government of any description is highly unlikely. It’s a product of the nonsense electoral system.
What’s a nonsense is any electoral system that produces a majority government the majority don’t want. By all means push for a preference voting system that achieves a majority by including second preferences, but don’t suggest this new system is more irrational than the previous one. But if voters are genuinely split the government reflect should that.
Don’t doubt the power of the Welsh electorate. They said the proportional system in Scotland would prevent a majority government, but in 2011 the voters proved all the doubters wrong.
This poll is old and dated. A week is a long time in politics, and the last two days have been even longer. I’m not so sure these YouGov figures are valid any more