Plaid Cymru opens up commanding lead as first 2026 Senedd poll predicts political earthquake in Wales
Plaid Cymru has surged ahead as the predicted largest party in May’s Senedd election, pulling well clear of Reform UK and deepening the crisis facing Wales’ traditional political giants, according to the first poll of 2026 from ITV Cymru Wales.
The poll, conducted by YouGov and published less than four months before voters go to the polls, shows Plaid’s vote share climbing from 30% to 37% since September.
Reform UK, which had been neck-and-neck with Plaid throughout 2025, has dropped six points to 23%.
In a landmark shift, the Green Party is now polling third at 13% — its highest ever Welsh showing — with Labour and the Conservatives tied in fourth place on just 10%. Labour has never polled that low in a Senedd election.
The findings suggest Wales could be heading for the biggest political upheaval since devolution began.
Seat forecast puts Plaid within reach of majority government
This Senedd election is the first to use Wales’ new proportional voting system and comes with an expanded chamber of 96 Members.
Modelling the poll results, Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre projects:
Plaid Cymru – 45 seats
Reform UK – 23 seats
Green Party – 11 seats
Labour – 8 seats
Conservatives – 6 seats
A total of 49 seats would be needed for an outright majority, putting Plaid within touching distance of governing alone and on course to lead a non-Labour Welsh Government for the first time in history.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14-point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention—a significant shift from the two parties appeared neck and neck.
“While any single poll should come with a health warning and this may be something of an outlier, it continues broader trends we’re seeing in Welsh polling, where Plaid Cymru have enjoyed a modest boost, and trends in England, where Reform support appears to be plateauing while the Greens have surged.
“Two patterns are particularly noteworthy. First, the gains for both the Greens and Plaid Cymru appear to be drawing from voters who were previously undecided, rather than coming from other parties. Second, Plaid Cymru seem to be consolidating their position as the party best placed to challenge Reform UK—57% of respondents in our sample identified them as such.”
Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said: “While the main headlines from the first poll of 2026 remain the same as those in 2025, there are some significant twists, which will make everyone involved in politics sit up.
“Plaid Cymru’s extended lead, Reform UK’s faltering second place and the Greens’ new third place show that change is in the air and it is now highly likely that the Senedd will see the biggest political change since it came into being as the Welsh Assembly back in 1999. What form that change takes is still to be decided.”
Westminster
The poll also found Plaid now ahead of Reform UK for Westminster voting intentions in Wales:
Plaid – 29% (+6)
Reform – 25% (-4)
Labour – 13% (-5)
Conservative – 12% (+1)
Green – 12% (+5)
Lib Dem – 6% (-3)
That movement coincides with rising approval for Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and increasing dissatisfaction with Reform’s Nigel Farage.
If replicated in May, the result could bring:
Labour’s first loss of power since devolution in 1999
A Plaid Cymru First Minister for the first time
A possible Plaid-Labour deal — though Labour’s seat tally may make that difficult
Reform UK as Wales’ official opposition
Greens emerging as a major force in the Senedd
Adrian Masters warned that Labour and the Conservatives could face “devastation, literally and emotionally” based on current projections.
About the poll
YouGov surveyed:
1,220 adults (16+) for Senedd voting intention
1,205 adults (18+) for Westminster voting intention
Fieldwork ran from 5–12 January 2026.
With four months to go, parties on all sides will now be bracing for what could become the most unpredictable and consequential Senedd election Wales has ever seen.
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Amazing poll! Good news for Plaid and it also suggests Farage’s historical racism has come back to haunt him.
You might be overestimating the intelligence level of the average Reform voter…
Only one poll, but it’s nice to have a story that doesn’t make me feel even worse. Hope there are more
Perhaps Christmas, when we get together with family led to conversations and reflection that have steered some people away from the nasty cliff edge. Spring can be a time of renewal.
At last, at last it seems the people of this great nation have awoken from their slumber. Sick and tired of the complete failings of Westminster and the lies peddled and general contempt for the Welsh people. The youngsters are driving this because they have been completely failed by the Disunited Kingdom. A Plaid Green coalition would be absolutely fine with me
Nathan Gill was a well known figure in Wales (on TV here an awful lot over the years), so it’s no surprise to me that Reform’s polling has suffered more here than in other parts of the UK after his conviction for taking bribes from the Russians. Fartage’s bullying bigotry during his school days hasn’t helped them either. This poll is very encouraging news, especially when taking into consideration that it surveyed over 1,200 people, which means that it has a margin of error of some 3%. So, worst case scenario, Plaid would still have a healthy lead of 8%.… Read more »
More importantly the bookies have Plaid hot odds on favourites
The poll backed by hard cash
Plaid backed off the boards
They must have recruited Sean Bowen .
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/welsh-politics/senedd-election/most-seats
Bet 365 are taking no chances with Plaid as short as 8/13 on
Meanwhile WHITE,PALE AND STALE bookmakers set out the odds for Reform leader in Wales
David Jones 2-1
Mark Reckless 3-1
Gareth Beer 4-1
Andrew Davies 5-1
Jason O’Connell 5-1
David Thomas 8-1
Laura Anne Jones 9-1
Aaron Banks 10-1
Sarah Pochin 12-1
Llyr Powell 16-1 (Carrying an injury after a nasty fall at Caerphilly)
Giddy up
If that’s all Reform has to offer, then God help us all. Coco the Clown or Ronald McDonald would have more political gravitas as leaders than that lot!!
It’s a huge step in the right direction but I still feel very uneasy about how high anti wales deform and antisemitic garage are polling in Wales.
Need to assume Elon has, on orders from the Kremlin, deployed Grok, the pedo’s AI, to hack into the polling systems and fix the numbers so everyone thinks it’s a home run and no-one bothers to vote so Reform can romp home leaving everyone wondering what the hell happened.
Onwards and upwards for Plaid Cymru and Rhun ap Iorwerth. This poll shows that the Labour domination of Wales is finally about to end in May after 27 wasted years and the Welsh Conservative are finished. Thankfully the Welsh electorate have awoken and realised that Welsh Labour and Eluned Morgan are incapable of putting Wales interests first. Just look at her pathetic record since becoming leader. She grovelled in front of her master Keir Starmer. How embarrassing. Begging bowl politics. Welsh Labour achieved nothing regarding the further devolution promised in numerous manifestos. English overseer Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens and this… Read more »
I suspect that there’s substance to your point about the relative ineffectiveness of Eluned Morgan’s government in the face of a Starmer government which is – at the least! – demonstrably indifferent both towards her administration and towards Welsh interests in general.
I wonder if support in opinion polls for Labour would have slumped so dramatically if Drakeford were still first minister, or at least had been succeeded by someone with his mindset and – initially unexpected! – political skills.
Personally I think Welsh Labour are suffering because of the Starmer effect. 27 years in power and their inability to deliver on their promises also the reason for the collapse in support. Although I might add, Plaid Cymru and Rhun ap Iorwerth’s positive vision for Wales has struck a chord with the Welsh electorate also a factor. See, Eluned Morgan was specifically chosen as Welsh Labour leader by London Labour because she’s part of the Westminster establishment, as was Alun Michael before her, when he himself was parachuted in by New Labour in 1999 as then first secretary. Morgan’s a… Read more »
I pretty much agree with your analysis. My only reservation is that I think Mark Drakeford – about whom I had pretty low expectations when he was first nominated as leader of Labour in the Senedd – did turn out in the event, once he was in office. to broadly seek to prioritize what he saw as the needs of Wales over the concerns of UK Labour in the context of the wider UK – even though that did seem to cause him a pull of loyalties; and I didn’t think that he would do that. I anticipated that he… Read more »
Look, you like me want the best for Wales. It’s obvious now that FM Eluned Morgan is incapable of standing up for Wales interests at Westminster, especially seeing we have the most toxic Anti-devolution Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens at the helm of the Welsh Office. Until now both Labour and Conservative UK Governments have used project fear to trap us in a circle of apathy when it comes to devolution one too many times. I genuinely think the Welsh people have finally awoken not only to our devolution deficit but how Wales is treated like second class country. In May… Read more »
Good news on real Welsh party being ahead, but still extremely concerning that there are enough racist, anti Welsh people in our communities for the Russian abuse party to become second.
It’s nice to see the Greens getting somewhere. I think it’s going to be a pretty tough choice deciding whether I want to vote Green or Plaid at the next election…
Great to see.
But I think we all need to be ready for an onslaught of lies from Deform, who have a very large kitty to fund their propagation.
They’re no doubt planning to turn independence and language into wedge issues so good narratives based on fairness and equity are needed to ensure that all anti-Reformers and feel comfortable with PC for at least one Senedd term, even the die hard unionists and monoglots who just want to give Labour a slap.
Reform Any pretence as being some sort of people’s army finally abandoned with the red carpet treatment for Zahawi. Those poor saps who handed over a taxed £25 in good faith treated with utter contempt Reform is just all about Farage I guess he revels in the idea that a former high ranking minister will dance to his tune. Happy to recruit Laura Anne Jones despite under investigation at the yime for a racial slur Plays big man in the pub on protecting women. Yet recruited McMursock who bashed his girlfriend so badly Her mother lablled him a monster. WALES… Read more »