Plaid Cymru to finish as largest party as Senedd poll predicts First Minister could lose seat
The First Minister is on course to lose her seat at the next Senedd election, according to a new opinion poll that suggests a dramatic reshaping of Welsh politics.
The ITV Cymru Wales survey, conducted by YouGov in partnership with Cardiff University, indicates that Eluned Morgan’s Welsh Labour party could fail to win any seats in four constituencies – including her own in Ceredigion Penfro.
With just over six weeks until polling day, the MRP model projects Plaid Cymru will emerge as the largest party, despite a fall in vote share to 33%. The party is forecast to win 43 seats in the expanded Senedd, leaving leader Rhun ap Iorwerth six short of an overall majority.
Reform UK is predicted to finish second, narrowing the gap on Plaid after increasing its vote share to 27%. That would translate into 30 seats, marking a significant breakthrough for the party in Wales.
Labour is projected to come third on 13%, equating to just 12 seats. While this represents a modest improvement in vote share, the party would suffer heavy losses under the new electoral system.
The poll also suggests a strong performance for the Greens, who on 12% could secure 10 seats, while the Conservatives are forecast to collapse to just one seat on 7% support. The Liberal Democrats, polling at 5%, are projected to win no seats.
Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said the findings pointed to a two-horse race.
“This poll points to a narrowing in the race for largest party between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK,” he said, adding that the contest to form the next government was “firmly between these two parties”.
He said Plaid remained in the strongest position, with more potential coalition options if it falls short of a majority, while Reform would face “far greater constraints” despite its projected gains.
The poll also indicates a competitive battle for third place between Labour and the Greens, with the latter maintaining strong support that appears to be coming from a different pool of voters than Plaid.
Volatility
ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the figures highlighted continuing volatility in Welsh politics.
“A radically different Senedd is on its way, with a large number of new members and every sign that there will be a change of government,” he said.
The findings are based on a survey of nearly 3,000 adults in Wales conducted between March 9 and 18.
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “Yet another poll confirms that this May’s Senedd election is very much a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK with Plaid Cymru in pole position to offer Wales the new leadership we need and to stop Reform UK.
“Wales now faces a stark choice between two futures.
“On one side, a Plaid Cymru government, led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, standing up for Wales and building a fairer, more ambitious nation: cutting NHS waiting lists, supporting families with the cost of living through free childcare, and creating good, well-paid jobs in a stronger economy.
“On the other, a billionaire backed Reform party full of ex-Tories more interested in getting Nigel Farage into Number 10. They would drag our politics backwards, privatise our NHS, and divide our communities.
“We are within touching distance of forming the next government but we cannot take anything for granted. Every vote will decide the future of Wales. There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but momentum alone won’t deliver change. If you want to stop Reform and choose hope, ambition, and a government that puts Wales first, then that change can only come by voting Plaid Cymru on May 7.”
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Whilst I’d never vote for them, I can’t see the Conservatives almost wiped out.
Like all polls treating in isolation is dangerous.
This much larger poll of 3,000 respondents is likely to be more accurate than recent smaller polls conducted by Beaufort and More in Common. It is also heartening to note that Plaid have lead (or jointly lead) in six of the last seven Senedd polls that have been released to the public.
Sad indictment that the far right look to get so many.
The Labour party in Wales are partly to blame, their manipulation of the school history curriculum for the last 100 years (denying our children access to Welsh history) has helped create a population in Wales that is more likely to see the world through British eyes. This view of the world contributed to the Brexit vote and rise of Reform UK in Wales. There are obviously many other factors at play here, nevertheless Labour’s manipulation of the curriculum is likely to a factor.
Nope. I would suggest there are better people backing reform. I don’t think Wales political scene was ready for these grifters.
When I say better, better at playing people with social media and the press.
Whilst experience has taught that the only poll that really matters is on polling day these figures are nevertheless very encourging. If accurate they would not only mean a historic first Welsh general election win for Plaid Cymru but they could also see Labour’s branch office in Wales frozen out of govt in Wales completely – with the left of centre, indy supporting Greens looking more natural partners in govt for Plaid. I also suspect these figures will see the bloodletting and recriminations start in Labour well before polling day because these figures are disastrous for them – indeed the… Read more »
If this comes about PLEASE PLEASE start putting the wheels in motion to get the hell out of the disunited kingdom at 75 years of age i would love to see our country free from under the English boot on our throat it also be the end of the U K as nationalists in Scotland S N P and Nationalists in Northern Ireland Sein Fein look like they will win
A bigger poll with a more reputable polling company, although I think their previous poll overstated Plaid’s support. This looks more realistic, although it’s shocking how low the Tories have dropped.
Now, 5 weeks left of glossy leaflets and social media!
6 weeks.
I’m worried now. If PC don’t get a good majority then they will have to do more deals etc – even with Labour which could see Morgan, Miles etc somehow remaining in government. Bad enough that PC’s only plan as it is seems to be focus groups. A small majority or worse will just lead to yet more procrastination when, after 25 years of utterly nothing, we deserve action.
The new voting system is not designed to give anyone an overall majority. It’s virtually impossible. The important thing for me is that Reform will probably not be the largest party. However it’s also difficult to translate the support into seats accurately. A few hundred votes in each constituency could produce a different outcome in terms of who gets the 6th seat (or maybe even the 5th).
Labour voters in Wales have a stark choice to make in May. A vote for Welsh Labour would aid English agent provocateur Dan Thomas and Reform UK, or you can elect a true Welshman, Rhun ap Iorwerth, as First Minister and Plaid Cymru , Welsh Government— who has your and Wales’ best interests at heart: a leader and party that don’t think you speak a foreign language in your own country, as the ignorant pound-shop patriot Nigel Farage does—a man who would use Wales as a doormat and stepping stone to Westminster power. Put Wales first with Plaid Cymru, not… Read more »
Now would be an opportune time for Plaid Cymru and the Greens to discuss a progressive coalition. I truly believe they will find ample common ground on which to work together.
Nice to see the far right scum being rejected. A Plaid/ Green coalition will work very well in my opinion
Still incredibly worrying that there’s enough people who openly despise Cymru and it’s inhabitants to support the vile racist party.
Racism and hatred kills communities, it should be kept in other countries.