Plaid Cymru upbeat as votes counted in Caerphilly by-election

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has arrived at the Caerphilly by-election count, expressing optimism as early indications point to a strong performance for his party in what could prove a historic result.

Speaking shortly after arriving at the count, Mr ap Iorwerth said there was “a feeling that things are positive” following weeks of intense campaigning across the constituency.

“There’s been a sense throughout the campaign that it was very winnable for us, and we had a very clear message that we wanted to get across to people,” he said.

“We’re hopeful that we can do it. A good Plaid Cymru win here tonight would be the clearest evidence yet of who is in the driving seat. We’ve known throughout this campaign that the results here would have a real bearing on how people would consider their options ahead of next May.”

The by-election, triggered by the death of Labour MS Hefin David in August, has been widely seen as a bellwether contest ahead of next year’s Senedd election.

Political shift

A Plaid Cymru win in Caerphilly – a seat long considered a Labour stronghold – would mark a significant political shift in south Wales.

Turnout in the by-election reached 50.43%, notably higher than the 29.1% recorded in the 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election – the last Senedd by-election held before this one. By comparison, overall turnout in the 2021 Senedd election stood at 46.6%, and no national turnout for a Senedd vote has ever exceeded 50%.

At the count, Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies acknowledged that Labour had struggled to connect with voters during the campaign, admitting the party would need to “reflect” on its approach ahead of next May’s election.

“We know where the polls have been, and, look, we fought a really good campaign with a really good candidate,” he said.

“If it’s reflected where the polls are, then we’re going to have to, in Welsh Labour and UK Labour, reflect on that very rapidly and then get on with working for the May elections.”

‘Compelling story’

Mr Irranca-Davies said Labour needed to present “a compelling story” to voters in the months ahead.

“We’ve had to fix the economic foundations of this country after a disaster was left behind. But yes, there have been some missteps. Going forward, we need to sell that compelling story about what we do next.”

The result of the by-election is expected to be declared after 2 am.