Plaid Cymru warns Reform manifesto would leave £1bn ‘black hole’ in Welsh finances

Reform UK’s Senedd manifesto would blow a £1bn hole in Welsh public finances, putting vital services at risk, Plaid Cymru has warned.

The party said analysis of Reform UK’s tax and spending pledges suggests they are unfunded and could lead to cuts to public services if implemented.

The criticism comes ahead of the Senedd election on 7 May, with Plaid Cymru currently leading in the polls and Reform predicted to finish in second place.

Plaid Cymru’s economy spokesperson Luke Fletcher said Reform’s plans amounted to “fantasy economics” and warned they would have serious consequences for communities across Wales.

He said: “The manifesto sums simply don’t add up – it would create a £1bn black hole in Wales’ public finances. It’s fantasy economics with no costings. That’s not a plan, it’s a gamble.

“Reform’s divisive rhetoric would rip our communities apart. Their hidden-austerity agenda, designed to give their billionaire buddies a tax cut, would destroy our vital public services.”

Plaid’s analysis points to several major spending commitments and tax cuts outlined in Reform’s manifesto which, it argues, lack credible funding plans.

Among them is a proposal to cut 1p from every income tax band in Wales, which independent estimates suggest would cost £371 million in 2026–27, rising in subsequent years.

The party also highlighted Reform’s pledge to limit council tax increases to 5%, which Plaid says would require hundreds of millions of pounds in additional funding for local authorities to compensate for lost revenue.

In addition, Reform has committed to building an M4 relief road — a project previously estimated to cost more than £1.4 billion in 2019. Adjusted for inflation, Plaid said this could now exceed £2 billion, representing a significant share of the Welsh Government’s capital budget.

Taken together, Plaid Cymru argues the measures would exceed £1 billion in costs without clear proposals on how they would be funded.

Reform’s manifesto has already faced scrutiny over its lack of published costings.

At the party’s Welsh manifesto launch in March, leader Nigel Farage said a full set of independently verified costings would be released. However, more than a month later, these have yet to be published.

Confusion

There has also been confusion within the party over whether the figures would be made public. Welsh leader Dan Thomas initially suggested they would not be released, before later confirming they would be published “very soon” following internal discussions.

Independent analysis has also raised questions about the affordability of Reform’s plans.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said the proposed income tax cuts alone would cost hundreds of millions of pounds annually, warning that such policies “would likely necessitate cuts in at least some services used by households”.

Experts have also pointed out that while Reform has suggested savings could be made through reducing consultancy spending, cutting civil service numbers and scrapping certain programmes, these measures are unlikely to fully offset the scale of its proposed tax cuts and spending commitments.

Plaid Cymru has framed the issue as a clear choice for voters ahead of polling day.

Mr Fletcher added: “It’s clear that the ex-Tories of Reform aren’t serious about governing Wales – they’re only interested in creating chaos and division that serves their own purpose.

“As the Senedd election approaches, the polls are clear: only Plaid Cymru can stop Reform from getting their hands on Wales’ public purse and the local services we all depend on.”

Reform UK has said its policies would be funded through efficiency savings and restructuring government spending and has insisted it would protect frontline services.