Plaid holds Senedd poll lead as Labour recovers ground

Mark Mansfield

Plaid Cymru retains a five-point lead over Reform UK in a new Senedd poll, while Labour has recovered seven points since its election defeat in May.

But the More in Common survey also finds that seven in ten people see the new Welsh Government as “more of the same” compared with the previous Labour administration.

The findings, released at Plaid’s annual conference in Llandudno, show that living costs and NHS waiting lists are the main tests voters will use to judge the government.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has the highest net approval rating of the leaders tested, and Labour leads Plaid in Westminster voting intentions. Reform, however, remains ahead of both parties for a general election.

The survey of 919 Welsh adults aged 16 and over was conducted between September 24 and 30 and sponsored by Cavendish Cymru and Senedd Sources.

Senedd voting intentions, with changes from May’s election rounded to whole percentage points, were:

• Plaid Cymru: 32% (down three)
• Reform UK: 27% (down two)
• Labour: 18% (up seven)
• Conservatives: 12% (up one)
• Greens: 6% (down one)
• Liberal Democrats: 5% (up one)

Reform’s performance as the official opposition receives a mixed assessment: 28% say it has been worse than expected, compared with 19% who say it has been better.

Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: “The appetite for radical change that fuelled Reform’s rise this year clearly hasn’t gone away.”

Westminster

For Westminster, Reform leads on 27%, followed by Labour on 22%, Plaid on 18% and the Conservatives on 16%.

The Greens poll 9%, the Liberal Democrats 5% and Restore Britain 2%. Labour remains 15 percentage points below its Welsh vote share at the 2024 general election.

More than a quarter of those who voted Plaid in May — 28% — say they would back Labour at Westminster.

Mr Burnham is the only leader tested with a positive net approval rating, at plus three. First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch both score minus three, while Nigel Farage has the lowest rating at minus 29.

Among people who voted Plaid in May, 54% say Mr Burnham is doing a good job, compared with 17% who say he is doing a bad job.

Asked whether the leaders respect the people of Wales, 48% say Mr ap Iorwerth does, against 28% who say he does not. He is the only politician tested with more positive than negative responses.

By comparison, 49% say Mr Burnham has little or no respect for the people of Wales, while 35% say he does. For Mr Farage, 63% say he has little or no respect.

Government record

Five months into Plaid’s administration, 41% say its performance has been about what they expected, while 25% say it has been worse and 17% better.

Several policies receive favourable responses, although awareness is limited.

The pledge for up to ten NHS surgical hubs is the most positively rated, with 60% saying it reflects well on the government. Only 36% have heard of it.

The promise of 20,000 more social homes has the same level of awareness, with 55% viewing it positively.

Extending free school meals to secondary pupils from households receiving Universal Credit and continuing £1 bus fares for young people are better known. Around half have heard of each measure, with 58% and 59% respectively saying they reflect well on the government.

The best-known development is the independence pact with Scottish and Northern Irish leaders, recognised by 54%, but this divides opinion.

Asked how they will judge the government, 59% identify reducing the cost of living and 55% cutting NHS waiting lists. These are the leading tests among Plaid, Labour, Reform and Conservative voters alike.

Just 9% identify progress towards independence as a main test, rising to 15% among Plaid voters.

Mr Tryl said: “Its policies are popular — particularly its interventions on the cost of living — but they are struggling to cut through.

“The best-known moments of this government have been on constitutional issues, above all the independence pact with Scotland and Northern Ireland, and those split voters.”

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