Plaid Cymru have recorded their highest support this century in a Westminster poll.
Their 17% support in the new YouGov/ITV poll is, according to Professor Roger Awan-Scully, “the highest they have ever recorded for Westminster in any Welsh poll this century of which I am aware”.
The Plaid Cymru gains seems to have come alongside a slump for Labour, the poll projects. While Plaid Cymru are up 4%, Labour have fallen a full 7% to 36%.
Plaid Cymru are also up 2% and 3% in the Senedd constituency and regional poll to 22% and 23%, while Labour have seen a 4% and 3% fall to 34% and 30% respectively.
The Conservatives largely stand still, down 1% in the Senedd constituency poll to 26%, but up 1% in the regional and Westminster poll to 25% and 33%.
“These numbers appear to show a clear weakening of Labour support since before Christmas,” Roger Awan-Scully said.
“Before we get carried away with interpretations of such an apparent change, however (for instance, attributing it to the Welsh Labour Government’s handling of Covid-19 in recent weeks), we should note that this change simply reverses a four-point Labour rise in our last poll.
“That November poll may have thus been a slight outlier, with matters reverting to a more normal reading in our latest measure of public attitudes.
“However, with Labour’s rating apparently down, and Plaid Cymru’s support level apparently edging up slightly (although again by an amount well within any sampling error), the picture painted by our poll is much more of a serious three-way contest for the Senedd than November’s poll suggested.”
The poll projects that at the Senedd the Conservatives would narrowly gain the Vale of Glamorgan and Vale of Clwyd from Labour, and Labour would also lose Llanelli to Plaid Cymru.
At Westminster, the Conservatives are projected to narrowly gain Alyn and Deeside, but would narrowly lose Ynys Mon to Plaid Cymru.
Senedd constituency poll
Labour: 34% (-4)
Conservatives: 26% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 22% (+2)
Greens: 6% (+3)
Reform UK: 5% (no change on Brexit Party last time)
Liberal Democrats: 4% (+1)
Others: 4% (no change)
Senedd regional poll
Labour: 30% (-3)
Conservatives: 25% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+3)
Abolish the Assembly: 7% (no change)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Reform UK: 4% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 4% (no change)
Others: 1% (-2)
Labour: 36% (-7)
Conservatives: 33% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 17% (+4)
Reform UK: 5% (no change)
Greens: 4% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 3% (no change)
Others: 2% (no change)
Liz Saville Roberts MP, Plaid Cymru’s 2021 campaign director said voters were reacting to the positive choice they were setting out.
“More and more people are turning to Plaid Cymru as we set out our ideas for how to transform our nation’s economy and public services for the better.
“All Labour is interested in is keeping hold of control; there’s no vision, no energy, no ambition. The Labour Party’s tired managerialism is holding us back.
“The fact that Wales was too slow into the first lockdown and too quick to leave the firebreak, as well as the flawed vaccine rollout, is proof that we need a new government that will act with more competence and conviction.
“Meanwhile, the Tories are pursuing their attacks on the Senedd’s powers, allowing candidates who support abolishing the Welsh Parliament to stand at the election.
“The choice facing people in May is simple – further decline under Labour, fewer powers with the Tories, or an ambitious Plaid Cymru government that will set Wales on a path to a fairer, more prosperous future with independence.”