Plaid warns Reform win would be ‘terrifying’ for Wales as Senedd poll shows dead heat
A Plaid Cymru candidate has described the prospect of Reform UK emerging as the largest party in the Senedd as “terrifying”, as a new poll shows the two parties locked in a tight race.
The ITV Cymru Wales survey, conducted by YouGov in partnership with Cardiff University, puts Plaid Cymru and Reform UK level on 29% of the vote, with Reform gaining ground and Plaid slipping since the previous poll.
Kiera Marshall, a Plaid Cymru candidate, said the findings underlined the stakes of the upcoming election.
“I think it’s terrifying, frankly. The idea of Reform being the largest party in Wales, what that would do to our services, what it would do for people on the lowest incomes, all the children, a third of our children living in poverty,” she said.
“We’ve consistently been around 30%, we’ve been quite stable for over the last few months.
“I think it just emphasises what Plaid Cymru has been saying this whole time, that this is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform, and people really need to think about making sure we’re not letting Reform in through the back door.”
Modelling based on the Senedd’s new d’Hondt voting system suggests Reform would win 37 seats and Plaid Cymru 36, leaving both parties short of a majority ahead of the May 7 election.
Labour is projected to finish third on 13%, translating into around 12 seats, while the Greens are on 10% with seven seats. The Conservatives are on 8%, forecast to win three seats, and the Liberal Democrats on 6%, which would return leader Jane Dodds as the party’s sole MS.
Despite the close contest, analysts said the route to forming a government could differ significantly between the two leading parties.
Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said the “coalition arithmetic” was more favourable to Plaid, which could potentially work with Labour and the Greens to form a majority, while Reform had fewer viable partners.
Speaking on ITV Cymru Wales’ Sharp End, Reform UK’s Joe Martin said the poll reflected the party’s recent momentum.
“I think it reflects just about how well the leadership debates went for us, so we’ve seen a drop-off for everyone else and then a bump for Reform,” he said.
Labour’s Rob Stewart questioned the findings, saying they did not match what the party was seeing on the ground.
“You pick your poll, you pick your day. All I can say is this poll is inconsistent with what we’re seeing on the doorstep,” he said.
Encouraged
Green Party candidate Lauren James said her party remained encouraged by its position.
“I’d have to say that this time last year, if you had given me this poll, I would have been jumping for joy,” she said.
“We haven’t had a Green elected in the Senedd this year, and I think we’re still doing really well.”
Conservative representative Tom Giffard suggested his party could still play a key role in forming the next government.
“It’s highly likely that there could be a Conservative group in there that could hold the balance of power in the next Senedd,” he said.
“The best way to do that is to vote Welsh Conservatives because in this system, every Welsh Conservative vote counts.”
Campaigning
Liberal Democrat candidate Cadan ap Tomas said polling did not fully reflect the strength of campaigning on the ground.
“I think what this sort of polling doesn’t accurately reflect is the strength of all of us campaigning right across the country,” he said.
“I think we can achieve the surprise on the night.”
ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the poll would “galvanise” both Plaid and Reform supporters, with the election shaping up as a “change election” as voters look for an alternative to the status quo.
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For reform, see the US and Putin.
They own Farage, they want to carve up Wales. This isn’t a political deal, it’s a asset grab.
And it seems half the country are still as thick as mince…!
The money behind farage is very good at running the narrative. See Mandelson in the press, don’t see Tice dodgy tax or Farage’s links to at least two woman abusers (5 I can think of). Don’t see the failing councils, you see Mandleson.
I wonder how many people will repent when the solids hit the fan. I expect many to deny they voted for them. Don’t forget these morons will get committee places even if plaid win.
Jeff, Tice’s dodgy books have been replicated by Rayner. And you compare Mandleson ‘s sins to be on the same scale as these two. Then you have completely missed the whole point.
That was my first take, but we can’t just demonise people who vote for Reform. Remember, it was the working class vote that saw Thatcher win again and again. There is something deeper here, that needs to be explored. Why do people who have nothing to lose, pin their hopes on a disruptive stock trading multi-millionaire.
… and why will so many people not bother voting at all? Nothing at stake ?, indifferent? or lost and helpless? I’ve read and heard a lot of anti-Reform rhetoric and some factual criticism from other parties. What we haven’t really had is a detailed outline of how the other parties will go about arresting the decline and rebuilding for the future. Just “blah blah” and “yak yak”
I agree with both of these comments. It’s not enough to bang on about Trump, tax dodgers, English nationalists, etc. This just doesn’t cut through in many areas, particularly the Valleys. Plaid may be making the mistake of trying to repeat Caerphilly by being anti Reform and not much else; but that was a by election and under a different electoral system. This poll suggests their campaign is running out of gas?
Because most of the UK press is owned by a corporate clique that happily supports the right, and either deceptively frames or outright lies about what they’ll do. Remember the pack of lies the Leave campaign got away with during the Brexit referendum?
Russia is fine .
Just take a trip out there and see if you get a free train pass to Ukraine
Reform are definitely winning the election campaign, they’re clearly closing the gap in polls.
But it’s hardly surprising given attitudes like this. Plaid should be talking positive and about policies they will implement. Not getting involved in this culture war and divisive language.
This lady should be nowhere near the senedd. Part of plaids problem. They are actually turning people away from them now
Really, which of her comments do you disagree with?
It’s immature, student union politics to label another democratic party as “terrifying,” voters deserve a more measured and respectful tone. I consider this disrespectful to voters, and I’m sure others do to.
She should focus her energy on presenting her parties own ideas and demonstrate how they would improve people’s lives across Wales. But I suppose there is a reason she didn’t do that!
Hard disagree. It does nobody any good to ignore how frightening Reform are. A political campaign shouldn’t be run entirely on attacking other people, but you can’t stick your head in the sand about the reality of the opposition.
Would it have been immature to describe Hitler’s Nazi Party as “terrifying” in the 1930s as well, because it would have been disrespectful to the voters who’d put them in power?
Well we have not had a Kristalnacht anywhere in Britain yet. And Farage has not pulled out a pistol and shot a rival to his leadership.
Just give him a bit more time! The fact is that Hitler was voted into power by the German electrorate and Chamberlain’s policy of appeasement didn’t exactly go well!
What on earth are you talking about?
Plaid Cymru doesn’t receive money from people close to the regimes of Russia and Iran respectively. Are we redefining the word patriotism now?
Just hope with every vote counting that there us a high turnout especially with younger people, because iunless they take an interest in the election Redorm will thrive.
It’s not just worrying that Reform are appearing so popular, it’s incredibly dangerous that so many of their supporters are in our communities. That’s people who WANT an end to Cymru as it’s own identity, that’s people who WANT our culture and language extinguished like the Jews in 1930’s Germany, that’s people who WANT women out of employment and careers and back in the kitchen, that’s people who WANT our ethnic minority population rounded up or worse. What has Cymru become by allowing this filth to infest our communities like a cancer?? Why are these people allowed near our children… Read more »
Demographics, who is voting for who, such numbers can only mean this is part of who we are…scary really…
The advocacy of ‘Separatism’ throughout all aspects of Wales…
We have been cursed these last years with a ‘butterfly house’ not the serious place of business…no more solicitor politicians…they have no skin in the game!
I think its regional, rather than a widespread phenomenon. Here in the West, there’s not much time for Reform. The seriously deprived areas of the south-east are much more vulnerable to snake oil merchants.
Exactly, they do prey on the vulnerable.
When someone has been through hard times, they don’t check who’s throwing them the rope, they tend to grab it.
There needs to be a much bigger focus on the Valleys. Labour should have seen this a long time ago. No decent jobs, young unemployed, poor education prospects. And yet, the word from the streets is ‘immigration’ is a big issue for some elderly voters. It’s not their fault. They’ve been ignored since the collapse of well paid industrial jobs. This is Reform’s rust-belt territory.
The success of Reform also highlights the lack of a developed Wales based media. The only significant immigration is of white people from England, who somehow aren’t the focus of Reform. The English gutter press had stirred the pot over immigration even though the south east valleys are probably the least affected in the UK by the influx of refugees and asylum seekers. There is also the fact that neither the Senedd nor the Welsh Government have any control over immigration. But your main point does beg huge questions as to why these communities, wrecked by Thatcherism, have been ignored… Read more »
The bookmakers all have Plaid Cymru as the favourite to win the most seats. I trust the bookies’ odds far more than opinion polls.
Didn’t the bookies have Kamala Harris as favourite to win the US election in 2024?
Didn’t the bookies also say that Reform would win Caerffili?
One can only hope that the polls are very wrong. It is rather worrying that this late in the day with the widespread shortcomings of Reform ever more glaring that there are still those so deluded as to give their support and their votes to a demagogue who will hurt them badly.
Plaid could enter into league with the Greens and allow them near government. They are dangerous.
Pull the other one
Is your issue with the Greens based on Anti Semitism because they have a Jewish leader!
Johnny, there are several authentic reports of members of the Green Party chanting from the river to the sea. It was done in Bournemouth, it was done in Gorton. These have been reported by the reputable press and there are videos out on them
I agree with Plaid candidate, Keira Marshall. Reform in power is indeed a terrifying prospect, and why we must fight the blight of the far-right. They are a undemocratic American-made Daisy Cutter dumb bomb to be dropped on Cardiff Bay. A question. What good did Reform in their previous guise UKIP & the Brexit Party do for Wales? Both were proponents of Brexit, and thanks to them Wales lost hundreds of millions in EU funding, and our economy was ravaged, and business hindered by red tape thanks to Nigel Farage and his Welsh Conservative cheerleaders. And what about Ukip-Brexit Party’s… Read more »
Calling Reform “terrifying” is not going to win this election. Voters know who they are, and are voting for them because they are fed up with the establishment.
Labour ARE the establishment, after decades in charge in Cardiff Bay and now in Westminster. Plaid can win this by exposing Labour’s failures and presenting a positive alternative, not by assuming scare language will do the work for them. This approach would also make it much harder for Reform to portray Labour and Plaid as just two sides of the same coin.
Terrifying that Reform are that close. More terrifying when you consider that there will be thousands more ‘silent’ Reform supporters who will only reveal themselves on election day (see Brexit, Boris Johnson’s huge majority etc). PC are lacking a positive vision, great policies etc to counter what is a protest vote against Labour’s consistent failures. I do feel very sorry for Rhun. Although he floundered on TV against Balls, he is their only hope as there is no-one in PC’s top ranks who is anywhere near being a heavyweight political operator, thinker and communicator. “Squeaky bum time” as a great… Read more »