Plaid welcomes poll showing it neck and neck with Reform in run-up to Senedd election

Plaid Cymru has welcomed the result of our latest Senedd election poll, saying it indicates that it is the only party that can defeat Reform UK in Wales.

According to the poll for Nation.Cymru from Cardiff-based Beaufort Research, Plaid and Reform are running neck and neck with Reform on 27% and Plaid on 26%.

Labour is in third place on 21%, the Conservatives are on 12%, the Greens on 9% and the Liberal Democrats are on 3%.

A spokesperson for Plaid Cymru said: “Once again, it’s clear that Plaid Cymru is the only party that can beat Reform in Wales.

“In May 2026, people will face a choice: a government of new leadership and real plans to improve lives under Plaid Cymru, or a government whose priority is helping Farage into Number 10 with Reform UK.

“This May, people can choose a positive future for Wales – one that improves our NHS, supports families with the cost of living, and builds a thriving Welsh economy – by backing Plaid Cymru.”

Meanwhile Anthony Slaughter , who leads the Wales Green Party, said: “It’s fantastic to see polls reflecting the enthusiasm we’re hearing on the ground for the Green Party. Winning two or even more seats in May would mean Senedd Members who are determined to cut people’s bills, fight inequality, and push the next government to be bolder.

“With Reform polling well short of the numbers needed to run the government, people can feel confident in voting for who they really want, not out of fear.”

According to a search tool run by London-based lobbying firm Cavendish Cymru, the poll results would translate into 30 seats each for Plaid and Reform – well below the 49 seats required to secure an overall majority.

Labour would be on 24 seats, the Conservatives on 9, the Greens 2 and the Liberal Democrats 1.

First Minster

If the poll results were replicated at the Senedd election next May, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth would almost certainly be elected First Minister. It is likely that negotiations would then take place between representatives of the Plaid Senedd group and their counterparts in the Labour group with a view to securing some kind of deal.

Sources in Welsh Labour have suggested that after what is likely to be a bruising defeat for the party, its group will have no appetite to become the junior partner in a formal coalition with Plaid Cymru.

Other options will be available, including a co-operation agreement of the kind previously entered into between Welsh Labour and Plaid, where the smaller group proposes a number of policies it favours in return for support in crucial votes that could bring down a minority government if it were defeated.

Reform, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were all offered the opportunity to comment, but all chose not to do so.

On December 12, Reform reportedly became the biggest political party in the UK, overtaking Labour which has been haemorrhaging members since last year’s general election victory and the unpopularity that quickly followed.

According to a story in The Times, Labour’s paid-up membership has dipped to less than 250,000, suggesting it has lost one member every seven minutes since winning office in July 2024.

Reform had 269,362 members at around 7.15pm on Friday December 12, according to a live counter on the party’s website.