Poll shows support for Welsh independence running at 41%, excluding don’t knows
Martin Shipton
A new poll commissioned by YesCymru has revealed some of the highest levels of support for Welsh independence ever recorded, with 41% of decided voters saying they would vote for independence if a referendum were held tomorrow.
The poll, conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, showed wide discrepancies in support for independence according to the age of those polled.
While people aged between 25 and 34 would back a Yes vote by 72% to 28%, those aged 65 and over would vote No by 80% to 20%.
Other age groups also varied in their support for independence, with those aged 18 to 24 backing it by 53% to 47%; those aged 35-44 opposing it by 55% to 45%; those aged 45 to 54 opposing it by 65% to 35%; and those aged 55 to 64 opposing it by 59% to 41%.
Conservative voters
Those who voted Conservative in the 2024 general election opposed independence by 75% to 25%; those who voted Labour were almost evenly split, with 49% backing independence and 51% opposing it; those who voted Plaid Cymru backing it by 89% to 11%; those who voted Lib Dem opposing it by 64% to 36%; those who voted for Reform UK opposing it by 89% to 11%; those who voted Green opposing it by 69% to 31%; those who backed other parties opposing independence by 83% to 17%; and non-voters being nearly evenly split with those who would vote No outnumbering those who would vote Yes by 51% to 49%.
Men would oppose independence by 59% to 41%, while women would oppose it by 58% to 42%.
‘Milestone moment’
Reacting to the poll results, YesCymru Chair Phyl Griffiths said: “This poll is a milestone moment for the Welsh independence movement. It shows that support is growing at a fast pace, up five points from the same company’s poll last year, and that nearly half of working-age adults now have confidence in Wales’s ability to govern itself. We’re witnessing a real shift in attitudes, and people across Wales are ready to have a serious conversation about independence.”
Kiera Marshall, aged 26, who hopes to be a Plaid Cymru Senedd candidate in 2026 and will be speaking at the next March for Independence in Barry on April 26, said: “As a young person living in Wales, I want a future where decisions about our lives are made here, not in Westminster.
“My generation has too often been overlooked and let down by decisions made far away, so it’s no surprise to me that 72% of people in my age group now support independence. It’s no longer a fringe idea, it’s now the majority view among my generation in Wales. We want a better, fairer future for our country.”
Mark Hooper, a Plaid councillor in Vale of Glamorgan who is one of the organisers of the March for Independence in Barry, said: “The energy behind this movement is growing, with every march, every conversation, and now, with this poll, the data backs it up. The March for Independence in Barry on 26 April, just three weeks away, will be a chance for people across Wales to come together and show that this support is real, it’s rising, and it’s unstoppable.”
Redfield & Wilton Strategies conducted an online poll for YesCymru of 1000 adults aged 18+ in Wales between March 24 and March 27 2025.
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Support for welsh indy definitely going in the right direction. Bit disappointed to see that only a third of green voters would back independence, given that the welsh greens – and leader Anthony slaughter in particular – have given their wholehearted backing for welsh indy. The other figures are pretty much what you’d expect (tho somewhat of a surprise to see that 25% of the party of ‘little englanders’ in Wales support indy). Most encouraging feature of this poll has to be the support for indy among the under 35s – those figures among yoing people would strongly suggest we’ll… Read more »
Any increase of support for independence in Wales which might be evidenced must surely be at least in part be linked with a sense of the overall dire and declining condition of the UK as a nation – at least as far as the experience of ordinary citizens on average incomes is concerned. The example of Ireland a century ago – the six counties of the north-east of course being an exception – might be a foretaste of a growing sentiment here now. Most folk in Ireland back then simply didn’t feel that ‘Britishness’ was a positive element in their… Read more »
People in Wales are now waking up to the fact that INDEPENDENCE is the only option for Wales and its not just only Welsh speaking people at my age i am only sad that i will not live long enough to see it but my Daughter and son and Grandson will have a better future with the english not ruling us
Rhaid rhoi’r gorau felly i adeiladu stadau tai i wladychwyr o dros y clawdd. Sir Gar a Cheredigion annwyl yn llawn o’r fath stadau.
Does 41% drop to circa 25% when don’t knows included?
And how are we to raise 26 billion every year, visitor levies, car parking charges, cycling tax, grabbing the crown estates from the English government there doesn’t appear to be any industry left and the new up and coming wind and solar farms will pay all of their taxes in Scotland. What hope do we have.
How do the other 34 countries smaller than Wales manage? Perhaps repeating their methods may be a start?
Yes.. let’s see the REAL figures, not the spun one..
What percentage of Wales actually would vote for independence??
Your comment is the product of 800 years of colonial rule in Cymru. Regardless of what people say about Cymru being poor, the reality is that we are good enough!
We will have our own law, justice and tax system.
Companies will pay corporation tax within Wales.
We will have our own stock exchange and banking system and be able to raise wealth to build our own new revenue earning industries.
We will also build our own wind generation and tidal power industries where we will receive rent which would have gone to the UK crown estates.
… And we will join the European Union. That the UK redrew from and damaged our export markets and internal investment sources.
It’s more nessasary than ever, even if just for damage limitation. Britain has driven Wales into the ground with its theft and destruction.
More and more are starting to pay attention to the fact that Britain is now just an international embarrassment, and Wales being held hostage by this shower is kind of like still letting the school bully terrorise you when said school bully has hit 60 years old, become obese and can’t throw a punch any more.
I am curious how many are in the “don’t know” category. While there will inevitably be some who ticked that box because they’re disinterested and genuinely don’t care either way, there will also be those who are interested in the issue of independence, but who so far, have not been persuaded by the arguments of either side. How many of these “up for grabs” votes are there? What would persuade them to pick independence? It’s a question worth exploring.
Great news, we need independence more than ever. Independence over time will transform Cymru into the aspirational and successful country we know it can be.