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Poll suggests pro-independence majority at Holyrood and Labour ‘implosion’

02 Feb 2025 3 minute read
The Scottish Parliament building at Holyrood in Edinburgh. Photo Jane Barlow/PA Wire

The SNP would be the biggest party at Holyrood at the next election and support for Labour would have “imploded”, new analysis of polling has suggested.

A poll carried out for The Herald by Find Out Now put support for the SNP at 31% on the constituency vote and 25% on the list vote.

It put Labour’s constituency vote at 19% and its list vote at 15% while the LibDems were at 10% and 13% respectively, as were the Scottish Greens.

The poll put the Scottish Tories at 12% on the constituency vote and 13% on the list while Reform was at 13% on the constituency and 11% on the list.

Alba was at 2% the constituency vote and 7% on the list.

Analysis by polling expert Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would win 51 seats, down from 64 at the 2021 election, while Labour would win 16 – down six.

The Scottish Conservatives would win 15 seats, as would the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens, while Alba would have eight and Reform nine, the analysis suggests.

A pro-independence majority

There would be 74 MSPs from pro-independence parties, which would mean a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.

Sir John told The Herald: “To be honest, the polling tells us there is no dramatic breakthrough here, it is just that Labour’s difficulties seem to continue.

“Reform’s rise is well-maintained. The SNP, if anything, is slipping back on these polls compared to previous polls.

“But the point here is the SNP finds itself where they are basically because Labour support has imploded.

“That just gives the SNP the chance of forming the next government, albeit from a rather weaker position than it is at the moment.”

The poll of 1,334 people was carried out by Find Out Now between January 15 and 20.

It found that if a Westminster election was held tomorrow, 31% of those questioned said they would vote SNP while 18% said Labour.

Support for the Tories was at 12%, the Lib Dems at 10%, the Greens at 7%, Reform at 17% and others at 5%.

Analysis by Sir John suggests this would result in 31 seats for the SNP and would give Labour 11, the Lib Dems six and the Tories five.

SNP Response

SNP depute Leader Keith Brown said: “I welcome this opinion poll which, if replicated in the Scottish election in May 2026, would see the SNP return to government alongside the largest pro-independence majority the Scottish Parliament has ever seen – 74 MSPs.

“Meanwhile, Labour’s support would shrink to just 16 MSPs – their worst ever result in a Scottish Parliament election.

“Support for Labour is imploding, and it’s hardly surprising given their betrayal of so many people, through axing the Winter Fuel Payment, maintaining the two-child cap, hiking National Insurance for charities and businesses, refusing compensation for the Waspi women, and skyrocketing energy prices.

“Labour can promise plenty in an election, but they cannot deliver in Government.

“As we approach next year’s election, the SNP will set out a positive, forward-looking vision for Scotland – one made in Scotland, for Scotland – unlike Scottish Labour, which, just like Scotland itself, is continuing to pay the price for having far too many of its decisions made in London.”


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Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
4 days ago

Hoorah! Build the momentum again. Cymru follow suit.

Llyn
Llyn
4 days ago
Reply to  Fi yn unig

I hope your right. But sadly I don’t see any sign that Cymru will follow suite. Far more likely a Reform/ Tory coalition. Wales is not Scotland.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
4 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

We must hold onto hope or there isn’t any. The advancing evil we are threatened with SHOULD be the long awaited and finally heeded wake up call for the people of our country which should have happened on the third election of Thatcher in 1987 at the latest.

R W
R W
4 days ago
Reply to  Llyn

I haven’t seen a single poll to suggest that Reform and the Tories could form a majority government in the Senedd.

Y Cymro
Y Cymro
4 days ago

This poll is very good news. The Scottish electorate can now see Keir Starmer & Labour for what they really are. An authoritarian basket case complicit in Palestinian Genocide, pro-Brexit, whose policies are increasingly getting extreme to counter the threat of Reform UK. Only the SNP have Scotland’s interests at heart, as Plaid Cymru do in Wales, where Labour, Tory and Reform basically have the same far-right ideology. They offer nothing but the same old centrist rule. I look forward to Labour’s collapse in Scotland, which will be the catalyst to another Scottish independence referendum. And I hope Wales follows… Read more »

Peter Cuthbert
Peter Cuthbert
4 days ago
Reply to  Y Cymro

Whilst we all agree that we need independence for Cymru, the forecasts for voting intentions here do not seem to mirror what is happening in Scotland. Personally I feel that Yes Cymru needs to change its focus and work very hard to recruit folk who are ‘at the bottom of the heap’ and likely to vote for ‘Re-form the Fascists’ party. Getting them on board with a very low membership fee should help to undermine the appeal of Re-form and possibly shift them to Plaid or the Greens. With a large proportion of Senedd members elected on an Independence platform,… Read more »

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