Portugal’s presidential election may deliver another gain for Europe’s populists

Associated Press Reporter

A record 11 candidates are standing in Portugal’s presidential election on Sunday, with a populist party leader poised to possibly bring another political breakthrough for Europe’s growing far-right parties.

The large field makes it unlikely that any candidate will capture more than 50% of the vote for a first-round win. That would leave the two top candidates to compete in a runoff ballot next month.

Almost 11 million people are eligible to vote in the election, with most results expected late in the day. The winner will replace President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who has served the limit of two five-year terms.

Among the front-runners, according to recent opinion polls, are Andre Ventura, the leader of the populist Chega (Enough) party.

The surge in public support for Chega made it the second-largest party in Portugal’s parliament last year, just six years after it was founded.

One of Mr Ventura’s main targets has been what he calls excessive immigration, as foreign workers have become more conspicuous in Portugal in recent years. “Portugal is ours,” he says.

During the election campaign, Mr Ventura put up billboards across the country saying “This isn’t Bangladesh” and “Immigrants shouldn’t be allowed to live on welfare”.

Such blatant anti-immigrant sentiment expressed in public was unthinkable in Portugal just a few years ago.

Other leading candidates are from the country’s two main parties that have alternated in power for the past half-century: Luis Marques Mendes from the centre-right Social Democratic Party, currently in government, and Antonio José Seguro of the centre-left Socialist Party.

A strong challenge is expected from retired rear admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who is running as an independent and won public acclaim for overseeing the speedy rollout of Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic.

Only one woman is among the candidates. Portugal has never had a female or non-white head of state.

Political instability

Last May, Portugal held its third general election in three years in its worst spell of political instability for decades. Steadying the ship is a key challenge for the next president.

Mr Ventura has sought to turn immigration into a campaign issue, but voters appear more concerned about a housing crisis and the cost of living.

A law permitting euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide in Portugal that parliament approved in 2022, but has been held up by constitutional objections, will likely land on the president’s desk for approval.

In Portugal, the president is largely a figurehead with no executive power. Mostly, the head of state aims to stand above the political fray, mediating disputes and defusing tensions.

However, the president is an influential voice and possesses some powerful tools, being able to veto legislation from parliament, although the veto can be overturned.

‘Atomic bomb’

The head of state also possesses what in Portuguese political jargon is called an “atomic bomb”, the power to dissolve parliament and call early elections.

Political events in Portugal have little bearing on the overall direction of the European Union. It has one of the bloc’s smallest economies, and its armed forces are of a modest size.

A runoff between the top two finishers on Sunday would be held on February 8 which would decide who serves a five-year term at the president’s riverside “pink palace” in Lisbon.