Prison population set to hit 100,000 a year later than projected – figures

The Ministry of Justice said the suggested increase was driven by several factors including a continued rise in police charges and prosecutions, more cases coming to court and increases in the numbers of offenders recalled to custody.

But the department also found the prison population was projected to be around 2,400 lower than previously thought by September 2028 following the central estimate, compared to last year’s publication.

Last year, the MoJ published estimates of an increase of between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800.

The MoJ said the difference was mainly driven by the impact of recent sentencing policy measures, including the emergency measure to free some criminals at an earlier point in their sentence.

Since September last year, thousands of prisoners have been released from jail as part of efforts to tackle overcrowding.

Nearly 40,000 criminals in England and Wales were freed under the Government’s early release scheme by the end of June this year, official figures show.

The number of prisoners in England and Wales was 87,603 as of December 1 this year – 1,458 lower than the previous record high of 88,521, which was reached on September 6 2024.

The MoJ said: “The projections account for the best available evidence, but there is considerable uncertainty around the impact of various key factors.

“Notably, future crime mix and police charging activity will have a considerable impact on the volume and composition of cases entering the criminal courts.

“Additionally, any differences in assumptions for other factors such as court activity, sentencing behaviour, and future changes in policy will all result in variation from these projections.”

Impact

The impact of the Sentencing Bill currently going through Parliament, aimed at ending the prison capacity crisis in the long-term, is not included in the projection because it has not yet come into force.

The legislation includes plans for a Texas-inspired earned release scheme, where inmates who demonstrate good behaviour could be freed earlier, while those who break the rules will serve longer jail time.

The reforms are expected to come into force next year, while ministers have also vowed to build 14,000 new prison places by 2031.

The projections also follow further changes announced by the Justice Secretary on Tuesday to overhaul the courts system as part of wider reforms to the criminal justice system.

This announcement has also not been considered in the latest estimates, which do not take into account future policies.

‘Horrendous strain’

Pressure on prisons has been further laid bare since a string of high-profile mistaken releases of prisoners, which have been described as a symptom of the system under “horrendous strain”.

In October, the rise of accidental prisoner releases became a focus after Hadush Kebatu, the now-deported migrant at the heart of protests in Epping, Essex, was freed in error, prompting a police manhunt.

Last month, Justice Secretary David Lammy admitted there was a “mountain to climb” to tackle the crisis in the prisons system after another high-profile search for two more prisoners released by mistake within two weeks of the blunder.

MoJ data shows 91 accidental releases took place between April 1 and October 31 this year, and on Tuesday Mr Lammy revealed 12 more prisoners have been freed by mistake in the last month and two are still at large.

But he said he was pleased with a “downward trend” in accidental releases after he announced stronger security checks for prisons in the wake of Kebatu’s mistaken release.

Meanwhile, the House of Commons’ Justice Committee warned last month that the prisons system in crisis mode is undermining aims to cut reoffending, citing issues including overcrowding in jails, staff shortages and dire living conditions.