Public overestimates how much of UK immigration is from asylum seekers – study

The public vastly overestimates how much asylum seekers account for in UK immigration, leading to “skewed perceptions” that make the debate on migration “unbalanced”, according to new research.

A survey found that, on average, respondents thought those seeking asylum represent 37% of total immigration when actually they accounted for only around 7% in the year ending in June 2024.

More than one in five (22%) thought asylum makes up more than half of the UK’s total immigration, according to findings from the Immigration Attitudes Tracker by British Future and Ipsos.

Half of those surveyed expect net migration to go up over the next 12 months, while only 12% said they thought it would fall.

‘Breathing room’

Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think tank, said a drop in net migration over the next year could give Sir Keir Starmer “breathing room”.

He said: “Most people will be surprised to see net migration falling over the next 12 months.

“PM Keir Starmer will exceed public expectations, giving him breathing room to reshape the government’s approach – though [former home secretary] James Cleverly may argue that he deserves the credit.”

Home Office data published last month showed a drop in the number of visas issued to foreign workers which the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory said that, when combined with rising emigration, “should mean a decline in net migration over the coming year”.

Mr Cleverly claimed those figures were proof that measures put in place when he was in office are taking effect.

Mr Katwala added that falling numbers “may do little to ease the anxieties of those most concerned about immigration.”

He said: “Most people massively overestimate how much of the UK’s immigration is for asylum, and these skewed perceptions give us an unbalanced debate about the immigration we actually have.

“So pressure on the Government will be focused on Channel crossings, where a visible lack of control drives public concern – and the government will need to find a workable approach that combines compassion with control.”

The public underestimates how much of migration is for work and study, the research found.

The public on average thought that a quarter of immigration (26%) is for work when the actual figure is around 40%.

They estimate on average that only 19% is for study at UK universities when it is actually around 38%.

Support for reducing immigration has gone up from 42% in February 2022 to 55% in the most recent survey, according to the tracker research, which has followed attitudes to immigration since 2015.

But the respondents struggled to identify what type of immigration they would cut back given the choice.

Bankers

They were asked to pick from a list of migrant roles including doctors, care workers, catering staff and engineers, but support for reducing migrants was no higher than 30% in almost every category. Bankers were the only exception, where 37% wanted a reduction.

Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “The election of a new Government hasn’t stopped public concern over immigration, with over half of Britons now wanting to see overall numbers reduced – with worries over asylum and channel crossings particularly driving public concern.

“Labour are not yet in the position of the previous Conservative Government who were criticised from all sides over their handling of the issue, but nor is it a particular strength.

“And the underlying challenge facing them remains the same, how to respond to the complexities of public opinion on this topic: a public concerned over overall numbers and asylum/channel crossings, but at the same time prioritising control over reducing numbers in many specific occupations.”

Ipsos interviewed 3,000 adults across Great Britain between July 29 and August 12.