Questions raised over what policing reforms will mean for Wales

Emily Price

Concerns have been raised about what the UK Government’s plans to overhaul policing could mean for Wales.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood confirmed on Monday (January 26) that the shake up will see the creation of a new National Police Service.

Mahmood told the House of Commons that the 106-page white paper represented “the most significant changes to policing in this country in nearly 200 years”.

There are currently 39 police forces in England and four in Wales, but the new plans could see the total for both nations combined cut by about two-thirds.

The extent of the implications of the reforms on Wales is so far unclear – although the Home Office says it will engage with the Welsh Government on the “desired governance and state of policing”.

Plaid Cymru has long argued that policing and justice should be devolved to Wales, in line with arrangements already in place in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Speaking in the House of Commons on Monday, Plaid’s Westminister leader Liz Saville Roberts asked the Home Secretary if the package of radical reforms were “exactly the right time” for the devolution of policing to Wales.

In her response, Shabana Mahmood said: “No I do not.”

In a speech last week, First Minister Eluned Morgan warned that the UK Labour’s actions were risking pro-independence parties dominating in Wales after the May election.

‘Partnerships’

In a new statement released on Monday, Morgan said the changes to policing proposed by the Home Secretary presented “significant opportunities to align policing with Wales’ unique identity and geography”.

She added: “Also to reflect the make up of our communities and the strong partnerships that we’ve built between the Welsh Government, our police forces and our wider public sector.

“We will expect the independent review to take account of current policing in Wales and we will seek the best possible model to ensure accountability, strong governance and alignment with modern Wales’ social and political landscape.”

In the Senedd on Tuesday (January 27) Morgan was pressured by Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iowerth who accused her of trying to “wriggle out” of standing up for Wales.

The First Minister said she wasn’t interested in the devolution of policing as a journey to full independence for Wales, but added that she would be continuing to argue her long standing view that “policing should be devolved”.

‘Outdated’

In December, several Senedd Members sent a strongly worded letter to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer raising significant concerns about the UK Governments’ failure to move forward with agreed plans to devolve further powers to Wales.

Since Labour’s general election win in 2024, the party’s MSs have expected the UK Government to press ahead with reform of the outdated Barnett Formula and for rail infrastructure, policing and justice powers to be devolved to Wales – but this has not happened.

After the Home Secretary’s announcement on Monday, one of the signatories of the letter – Mick Antoniw – published a news story about the UK Government’s policing plans.

Alongside the article, the former counsel general sarcastically wrote: “Thank you for another constructive contribution.”

The Welsh Liberal Democrats also agree that policing and justice should be devolved to Wales so that Welsh communities can have a direct say over the structures that keep them safe.

‘Failures’

The party says that any plans that would see Wales’ four police forces merged into a single national force could “risk repeating the failures seen after police centralisation in Scotland” and could leave communities with fewer officers on the streets and less responsive local policing.

The UK Government has yet to outline precisely which forces will be merged under its wider policing reforms – but the Lib Dems say that Wales must not be pushed towards a model that makes policing “more remote, less accountable, and less focused on local crime”.

The Scottish experience of police centralisation has been repeatedly cited by police professionals and communities alike, where the creation of a single force led to fewer police staff, more officers assigned to desk-based work, and a widespread feeling that policing had become distant and disconnected from local needs.

Westminster Spokesperson David Chadwick said: “The UK Government has not yet made clear exactly what its reforms will mean for Wales, but any plans that would see Wales’ four forces merged into one would be a serious mistake.

“We’ve seen the risks of centralisation before: after the police merger in Scotland, communities ended up with fewer staff, more officers behind desks, and policing that felt more distant and less responsive.

“People in Wales want local, visible policing, officers who know their communities and can focus on the crimes that affect people day to day. A one-size-fits-all model risks pulling officers away from neighbourhoods, particularly in rural areas.”

Opposed

Both Reform UK and the Welsh Conservatives are opposed to devolving policing powers.

Speaking last week, Tory Senedd leader Darren Millar said: “The First Minister should focus on the people’s priorities, not constitutional naval gazing.

“Appeasing Plaid Cymru’s salami-slice strategy toward independence is a mistake being pursued by both Labour and Reform in calling for more devolved powers.

“Only the Welsh Conservatives will respect the devolution settlement. We are clear and unequivocal in saying no to more powers and no to more politicians.

“We will use the powers already available to cut taxes, improve public services and fix Wales.”

In a post to X, the group’s former leader Andrew RT Davies said the Senedd shouldn’t be in charge of law and order, adding that Welsh Government ministers wanted to give prisoners the right to vote.

Davies was referring to unpopular plans in 2020 to extend voting rights to certain prisoners in Wales as part of a long-term strategy to reintegrate prisoners into society.

The Welsh Government later shelved the plans as ministers coped with the circumstances of the Covid-19 pandemic.