Reform and Plaid Cymru neck and neck in latest Senedd election poll
Martin Shipton
Reform UK and Plaid Cymru are neck and neck in our exclusive new poll ahead of the 2026 Senedd election, with Labour some way behind in third place.
According to the Beaufort Research poll for Nation.Cymru, Reform are on 27% (down 3 since September 2025), Plaid Cymru on 26% (up 4), Labour on 21% (down 2); the Conservatives on 12% (down 1), the Greens on 9% (no change), the Liberal Democrats on 3% (down 1) and other parties on a total of 2% (up 1).
Using the Cavendish Cymru seat projector, these results would put Reform and Plaid Cymru both on 30 seats, Labour on 24 seats, the Conservatives on 9, the Green Party on 2 and the Liberal Democrats on 1.
Such an outcome would almost certainly see Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth elected as First Minister, either as head of a formal coalition with Welsh Labour or in some kind of cooperation agreement that would not entail there being Labour ministers.
There were variations in party support by region, gender, age, social grade and whether those surveyed were Welsh speakers or not.
For the purposes of the poll, Wales was split into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.
In North and Mid Wales, Reform led with 29%, followed by Plaid Cymru on 24%, Labour 17%, Conservative 13%, Greens 12%, Liberal Democrats 3% and other parties 2%.
In South West Wales and Valleys, Plaid Cymru led with 31% followed by Reform on 25%, Labour 22%, Conservative 11%, Greens 6%, Liberal Democrats 3% and others 3%.
In Cardiff and South East Wales, Reform led with 31%, with Labour on 24%, Plaid Cymru 22%, Conservative 12%, Greens 8%, Liberal Democrats 1% and others 2%.
Reform leads among men, with 29% of the vote against 26% for Plaid Cymru, 23% for Labour, 9% for the Conservatives, 8% for the Greens, 3% for the Lib Dems and 3% for other parties.
Plaid Cymru leads among women, with 27% against 26% for Reform, 19% for Labour, 15% for the Conservatives, 9% for the Greens, 2% for the Lib Dems and 2% for other parties.
In terms of age, 16-34 year-olds were most likely to support Plaid Cymru. Some 31% did so, against 28% for Labour; 17% for the Greens; 14% for Reform; 4% for both the Conservatives and Lib Dems and 2% for some other party.
Reform leads amongst those aged between 35 and 54, with 36% support; followed by Plaid Cymru on 24%; Labour on 19%; the Conservatives and Greens both on 8%; the Lib Dems on 3%; and others on 1%.
In the 55 and over age group, Reform led with 27%; followed by Plaid Cymru on 26%; Labour 19%; Conservatives 16%; Greens 6%; Lib Dems 2%; and others 3%.
Prosperous
Those in the more prosperous ABC1 social grades were most likely to support Plaid Cymru, which had 30% support; followed by Labour on 23%; Reform on 20%; the Conservatives 12%; Greens 9%; Liberal Democrats 4% and others 3%.
By contrast, those in the less prosperous C2DE grades showed most support for Reform at 37%; followed by Plaid Cymru on 22%; Labour on 18%; Conservatives 12%; Greens 8%; Liberal Democrats 1%; and others 2%.
Among Welsh speakers, 41% backed Plaid Cymru; Labour 26%; Reform 15%; Greens 8%; Conservatives 6%; and the Lib Dems and other parties both on 2%.
Amongst those who cannot speak Welsh, Reform led with 31%; followed by Plaid Cymru on 22%; Labour on 19%; the Conservatives on 14%; the Greens 9%; Lib Dems 3%; and others on 2%.
* A total of 1,000 interviews conducted between November 10 and November 30 2025 were completed and analysed. The headline voting intention data is based on 505 respondents who fulfilled all the following criteria:
– Those aged 16+.
– Those who stated a preference for a party (ie excluding those who would not vote, don’t know
how they would vote or prefer not to say).
– Those who said they are 9 or 10 out of 10 in terms of their certainty to vote in a Senedd election (ie. excluding those who say they are 8 out of 10 or below).
Constituency seat projections
Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2
Bangor Conwy Môn: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 1: Conservative 1: Labour 1
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Labour 2: Plaid Cymru 2; Reform 2
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform 2: Plaid Cymru 1; Labour 1: Lib Dem 1; Conservative 1
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Labour 2; Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Green 1
Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid Cymru 2: Labour 2; Reform 1; Green 1
Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservative 1
Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Conservative 1
Clwyd: Reform 2; Conservative 2; Labour 1; Plaid Cymru 1;
Fflint Wrecsam: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservative 1
Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2
Gŵyr Abertawe: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2; Labour 2: Plaid Cymru 1; Conservative 1
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr:Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2
Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Reform 2; Labour 2; Conservative 1; Plaid Cymru 1
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Labour 1
In the interests of transparency, here are further notes from Beaufort Research explaining the methodology of how the poll was conducted:
The Omnibus sample is designed to be representative of the adult population resident in Wales aged 16 and over.
Interviews were self-completion and undertaken online using the Cint online panel exchange platform.
The Cint platform and its products comply with ESOMAR, MRS, ARF, MRIA, AMA, AMSRO and Insights Association standards.
Cint also complies with ISO 20252. Multiple data quality checks are built into the Cint system including GEO IP check and CAPTCHA at registration, unique respondent identification and fraudulent behaviour checks. On top of this Beaufort builds in its own quality control questions and measures within the survey and excludes respondents who fail these checks.
The survey was subject to interlocking demographic quota controls of age within gender. A further separate quota control was set on social grade and questionnaires were completed by residents of every local authority in Wales.
Online surveys were configured for PC/tablet and smartphone completion and English and Welsh versions of each were offered to every respondent.
Support our Nation today
For the price of a cup of coffee a month you can help us create an independent, not-for-profit, national news service for the people of Wales, by the people of Wales.
Just a reminder that Nigel “didn’t mean my racist comments in a racist way” Farage blames Bernard Manning for his racist comments and wont apologise, probably because it will upset his core voters, and he is what he is. Vote for reform is a vote to support racism and hate in the UK. He wont fix Wales, he will destroy it and bury it.
Oh, yeah, this popped up a few days ago. If you think nige has Wales best interest’s at heart, re think cos he is bought and paid for. He only has his interest.
There is a check who is who graphic in this. Worth it to see who is doing what.
https://www.desmog.com/2025/12/10/mapped-donald-trump-heartland-institute-european-network/
Scary thing to think there’s that many openly racist Wales haters in the first place.
Probably triggered by the many past fellow students of Garage coming forward and he staying resolute in not apologising.
Agree some on here and they are Welsh people who dislike who they are and where they live if you love England that much bugger of there you will not be missed
So Zack Polanski has not given the Green Pty any bounce in Wales. Contrary to the excited members and supporters of the party telling us otherwise. Voting Green in the vast majority of Wales is a complete waste, will give the Pty no seats, will split the progressive vote and only assists Reform.
That’s pretty much certain to be the case across the majority of the new constituencies. The solitary exception might – just possibly! – be Caerdydd Penarth, where the Greens recently won a by-election – from Labour – for a Cardiff council seat.
The green party is a slow growing one, always has been, probably always will be. The opinion poll shows that greens are likely to get two seats. Greens are very likely to work with any left of center party, that has any environmental credentials.
Smae. Maybe they are slow growing. However, after they have risen dramatically in UK wide polling. Nothing in Wales. The facts remain. The Greens have always underwhelmed in Wales and a party needs 12% to win a seat in a constituency. Greens are nowhere near getting more than a handful of seats and it’s misleading for anyone in the Green Pty to say they won’t on current and past evidence.
So the main takeaway is: if you’re poor, old with no education beyond 16 (or 15 for the really old voters) you’re going to vote for Reform.
The prospect of people voting against their own interests always puzzles me. Sometimes I just think: to hell with them, let them suffer the consequences.
On the plus side, the fact that so many of Reform’s voters are old f@rts means that ultimately Reform will go the same way as the tory party.
The only problem with that is the rest of us also have to suffer the results of their idiocy.
Much like brexit.
Welsh people voting for a racist English National Party it really does beggars belief. On the plus side these figures mean a Plaid run Cymru with the English racists party way off forming a majority. And if Caerffili is anything to go by Reform’s vote is over exaggerated and Plaid’s under exaggerated so looking really good for next year.
Come on Rev, for Pete’s sake, ‘fess up…
I’m a little sceptical about Labour polling as high as 21%. Labour always seems to poll higher in Beaufort voting intention surveys than in polls by any other polling organisations. Otherwise, it probably isn’t that far out.
Agreed. Once the tax increases take effect in April, Council tax bills start to arrive and utility bills also increase, I very much doubt whether they will be north of 20%.
It probably won’t do as badly as feared, due to the tendency of the valleys to vote anything with a red rosette.
I put the same figures into devolvedelections.co.uk where the results were a bit different. Reform (30), Plaid (29), Labour (22), Tories (8), Greens (7) and Lib Dems (0). It’s a new voting system and different sites will give different projections. The Greens will no doubt be quoting the site I’ve mentioned. I would.
Plaid have a choice of going into coalition with the Greens or Labour… would serve them well against a potential Reform led Senedd.
It’ll be turnout that matters in May. Unlike any previous election every vote counts so anyone who doesn’t vote is voting for Reform.
Reform UK and Putin’s pussy Nigel Farage offer Wales absolutely nothing. Only a Welsh Government led by Rhun ap Iorwerth and Plaid Cymru have Wales best interests at heart. And less we forget. Those Wales haters who stupidly voted for Ukip and Brexit party have short memories seeing when they elected 7 members to our Senedd via the list system turned out to be useless workshy antagonists whose leader Nathan Gill was busy working for the Kremlin when this traitor should have been fighting for his Ynys Mon constituents and Wales.
I’m surprised how well Labour is doing in this poll…
Meanwhile the bookies
The polls underpinned by hard cash have Plaid just ahead too
The margin is wafer thin
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/welsh-politics/senedd-election/most-seats
What that actually means of course is that Reform not only needs to align with the Tories
Yet pick up the odd seats from the Greens and Lib/Dems too to gain a majority
Slow in announcing candidates
Sounds like some big cheese defectors arriving
Andrew Davies has already got one foot in the camp .
I am surprised at this ‘neck and neck’ announcement when Reform has almost daily alleged reports of misconduct, corruption, dubious dealings etc. amongst its members/representatives. Are the people of Cymru not aware of this? I cannot believe they choose to be governed by such a dodgy party.