Reform and Plaid neck-and-neck in new Senedd poll as Greens poised for historic gains
Emily Price
A new poll on voting intention for the Senedd election puts Plaid Cymru and Reform UK neck-and-neck with the Greens poised for historic gains.
The new survey by More in Common showed the Senedd race tightening ahead of the election on May 7.
Compared to February 10, Reform UK has dropped 5 percentage points, while Plaid Cymru has gained two – putting the two parties level on 26 per cent of the vote.
Labour remains in third place on 20 per cent and the Greens have doubled their support.
Since early February, the Green Party’s vote share has risen from 5 per cent to 10 per cent – now tying with the Welsh Conservatives.
The full results of the More in Common poll (with changes from 10 February 2026) have Reform UK on 26% (-5), Plaid Cymru at 26% (+2), Labour on 20% (nc), the Welsh Conservative at 10% (–3), the Green Party on 10% (+5) and the Liberal Democrats on 7% (+1).
The polling was conducted using a different question wording to the language used in More in Common’s February 10 survey.
Participants were asked how they plan to vote in the May 7 Senedd election, rather than how they would vote in a hypothetical Senedd election held tomorrow.
The election is considered to be the most significant in Welsh politics since devolution began in 1999.
It’s marked with a shift in how Wales is governed due to a massive expansion of Wales’ parliament and a total overhaul of the voting system.
Based on the voting intention polling, More in Common used the D’Hondt model to estimate how these results would play out in a real Senedd election.
Reform and Plaid Cymru are tied, each with 28 seats. Meanwhile Labour would be allocated 26 seats.
We would therefore see the first non-Labour First Minister since devolution, with Plaid Cymru leading a coalition government.
Greens could be set to win 5 seats, seeing the party represented in Wales’ parliament for the first time in the Senedd’s history.
The poll’s full seat breakdown shows Reform UK winning 28, Plaid Cymru on 28, Labour on 26, Welsh Conservatives on 7, the Green Party winning 5 and the Liberal Democrats on 2.
The results are based on a nationally representative survey of 851 Welsh adults (16+) fielded by More in Common from February 15 – March 3, 2026.
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Why the hell are people in Wales voting for Reform are they really that stupid that they will vote for a rabid english nationalist party.
A lot of the voters here are english, and they don’t want Cymru to be free.
I don’t like Reform but I also cannot understand why some people still want to stick with Labour.
who said anything about Labour?
851 people over 2 weeks for the whole of Wales?
I will await a more substantial poll from a more trusted source.
If I found out that any of my family or freinds hated Wales and it’s people enough to vote reform, they’d be permanently disowned.
Whilst I respect a person’s political choices, knowingly supporting someone this evil, sinister and messed up is just over the level.
Reform, where racist have a safe haven.
Nige will be ok
https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/05/revealed-the-staggering-amount-of-time-nigel-farage-has-spent-on-on-second-jobs-since-becoming-an-mp/
Compared to other pollsters, More in Common do seem to have a track record for underestimating the Plaid vote and overestimating the Labour vote in past polls, and I suspect we’ll see that again in this poll when we see other more substantial polls come out in the coming weeks.
I worry that support for Labour may not be as weak in Wales as previously suggested. It could be people say they will vote Plaid or Green to give Starmer a bloody nose, but still revert back to them on polling day. Moreover recent events in Iran and Trump’s insults towards Starmer could give Labour a boost (rally around the flag affect). It is imperative that Plaid target disillusioned Labour voters, the last thing we want is for Reform to finish as the largest party and for Plaid to be dependant on Labour to form a government.
Well Plaid could join with the Greens ?
Fortunately, there was little evidence of that happening in Caerphilly or Gorton and Denton. As for Trump and Netanyahu’s illegal Iranian War, if it drags on for a long time, there is a real risk of mission creep dragging the UK further and further into taking part in the conflict, which will be very unpopular with the public (especially left leaning voters). On the other hand, if it finishes quickly, people will have largely forgotten about in a few weeks time and Trump and Starmer will be best buddies again in no time at all.
On May 7th, the Welsh electorate has a choice. If you wish to self-harm, vote Reform UK. If you want to change Wales for the better, vote Plaid Cymru. It’s quite a straightforward premise.
Given that More in Common has been the polling company that has Reform doing the best. The fact they now have Reform and Plaid level is really interesting. I can’t wait to see the next YouGov polling – as they publish their methodology.
It’s going to be a Plaid, Green coalition because their policies reflect the will of the people of Cymru. The Greens can win in areas where Plaid is weak.