Reform comes fourth in Pembrokeshire by-election

Martin Shipton

Reform UK came fourth in a working class ward by-election in west Wales that it thought it could win.

The party’s poor performance in Thursday’s Pembrokeshire County Council election in the Pembroke Dock: Market ward has led to speculation that Reform is in retreat.

The by-election was won by Welsh Conservative candidate Jamie Street with 143 votes (36%).

Independent Claire Francis-Boswell was second with 100 votes (25%), followed by Plaid Cymru’s Chloe Richards with 79 votes (20%).

Reform’s Ryan Morgan trailed in fourth place with 48 votes (12%), with Independent Paul Dowson on 11, Liberal Democrat Lee Herring with 9 votes and Independent Hayley Wood with 7.

There was no Labour candidate. The by-election was caused by the death of veteran Independent councillor Brian Hall.

Cllr Aled Thomas, who chairs the Pembrokeshire Ceredigion Conservative Federation, said: “We’re very pleased to have won this by-election, and a lot of the success is down to our excellent candidate Jamie Street.

“Jamie lives locally and is well-known because of his involvement as a union official with the workforce at the Valero oil refinery.”

More broadly, Cllr Thomas said he thought that Reform had made a strategic error by fixating on the issue of small boat migrants.

He said: “Elsewhere, their concentration on small boats may have got them votes, but here in Pembrokeshire it’s not nearly as important an issue as Reform thinks.

“I’ve been involved in the by-election campaign, and when you knock on doors you find out what people are focusing on. In Pembroke Dock they’re interested in bread and butter local issues like getting roads maintained and bin collections.

“I also think Reform believes that people are not as switched on as they are. Most people realise that there is absolutely nothing that Pembrokeshire County Council can do about small boats. They realise the council has no control over immigration policy and see through Reform’s message.”

Local activists

Cllr Thomas said it was also apparent that Reform didn’t have many local activists to help out during elections: “They seem to think they are going to do very well in the main council elections next year, but I’m not convinced. There are 60 seats in Pembrokeshire to fight, and I don’t think they’re going to manage that easily.

“All the revelations about Nigel Farage’s donations and the other concerns about the party’s funding are also having an impact, I have no doubt.”

Cllr Thomas said that if Farage left Reform, it was likely to suffer a significant drop in support. But he added: “I’m sure Tice and others would keep it going. I don’t think Reform would disappear. I think it will be around for decades to come.

“However, I’m of the view that elections are won from the centre ground – either centre left or centre right – and I don’t see Reform being in a position to form a government.”