Reform edges ahead of Plaid in new Senedd poll

Nation.Cymru staff

Reform UK has moved slightly ahead of Plaid Cymru in the latest Senedd election polling, underlining how finely balanced the contest has become.

A survey conducted by Survation for Aberystwyth University and S4C puts Reform on 30%, with Plaid close behind on 28%.

Welsh Labour trails in third place on 15%, while the Conservatives and the Green Party are both on 10%. The Liberal Democrats stand on 4%, with a further 4% backing other parties.

Analysis of the poll suggests the election remains highly competitive, with small margins potentially decisive in determining the final outcome.

Dr Anwen Elias from Aberystwyth University, who led the analysis of the opinion poll, said: “These findings point to a highly competitive political landscape ahead of the Senedd election, with two parties currently leading in voting intention.

“While Reform UK are found to hold a slight lead over Plaid Cymru, it is clearly incredibly close between the two parties. On the basis of such close polling results, projecting which party will win the most seats in the Senedd is incredibly difficult.”

She added that the results indicate a significant shift in Welsh politics, with both Labour and the Conservatives trailing well behind the frontrunners.

“If these results are replicated on 7 May, they will constitute a historic change in our politics,” she said.

The poll also highlights the issues most likely to influence voters, with the cost of living cited by 67% of respondents and NHS and healthcare by 64%.

Immigration (39%) and the wider economy (31%) were also ranked as key concerns, while housing, climate change, crime and education were mentioned by smaller proportions.

Around 60% of respondents said they are generally interested in politics, with just over half saying they have been following the election campaign to some degree.

However, engagement varies sharply by age. More than two-thirds of those aged 65 and over said they had paid attention to the campaign, compared with fewer than half of those aged 16 to 24.

When asked which party is running the best campaign, 20% chose Plaid Cymru and 18% Reform UK, though 39% said they did not know.

Plaid Cymru was also seen as the party most likely to stand up for Wales’ interests, with 34% selecting it compared to 16% for Reform UK. More than a quarter of respondents said no party represented Wales’ interests or were unsure.

Complexity

Dr Elias said the findings underline the complexity of voter decision-making.

“The results highlight the importance of everyday concerns in shaping voter priorities, especially the cost of living and pressures on the NHS,” she said.

“At the same time, there is a notable gap between voting intention and perceptions of which party best represents Wales’ interests.”

The poll was based on a sample of 1,065 adults in Wales, surveyed online between 17 and 23 April, with results weighted to reflect the population and likelihood to vote.