Reform edges ahead of Plaid in new Senedd poll
Nation.Cymru staff
Reform UK has moved slightly ahead of Plaid Cymru in the latest Senedd election polling, underlining how finely balanced the contest has become.
A survey conducted by Survation for Aberystwyth University and S4C puts Reform on 30%, with Plaid close behind on 28%.
Welsh Labour trails in third place on 15%, while the Conservatives and the Green Party are both on 10%. The Liberal Democrats stand on 4%, with a further 4% backing other parties.
Analysis of the poll suggests the election remains highly competitive, with small margins potentially decisive in determining the final outcome.
Dr Anwen Elias from Aberystwyth University, who led the analysis of the opinion poll, said: “These findings point to a highly competitive political landscape ahead of the Senedd election, with two parties currently leading in voting intention.
“While Reform UK are found to hold a slight lead over Plaid Cymru, it is clearly incredibly close between the two parties. On the basis of such close polling results, projecting which party will win the most seats in the Senedd is incredibly difficult.”
She added that the results indicate a significant shift in Welsh politics, with both Labour and the Conservatives trailing well behind the frontrunners.
“If these results are replicated on 7 May, they will constitute a historic change in our politics,” she said.
The poll also highlights the issues most likely to influence voters, with the cost of living cited by 67% of respondents and NHS and healthcare by 64%.
Immigration (39%) and the wider economy (31%) were also ranked as key concerns, while housing, climate change, crime and education were mentioned by smaller proportions.
Around 60% of respondents said they are generally interested in politics, with just over half saying they have been following the election campaign to some degree.
However, engagement varies sharply by age. More than two-thirds of those aged 65 and over said they had paid attention to the campaign, compared with fewer than half of those aged 16 to 24.
When asked which party is running the best campaign, 20% chose Plaid Cymru and 18% Reform UK, though 39% said they did not know.
Plaid Cymru was also seen as the party most likely to stand up for Wales’ interests, with 34% selecting it compared to 16% for Reform UK. More than a quarter of respondents said no party represented Wales’ interests or were unsure.
Complexity
Dr Elias said the findings underline the complexity of voter decision-making.
“The results highlight the importance of everyday concerns in shaping voter priorities, especially the cost of living and pressures on the NHS,” she said.
“At the same time, there is a notable gap between voting intention and perceptions of which party best represents Wales’ interests.”
The poll was based on a sample of 1,065 adults in Wales, surveyed online between 17 and 23 April, with results weighted to reflect the population and likelihood to vote.
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Slowly moving closer to the death of a nation
“Plaid Cymru was also seen as the party most likely to stand up for Wales’ interests, with 34% selecting it compared to 16% for Reform UK” –
but yet Reform UK lead in the polls. Work that one out.
Immigrants from over the other side of Offa’s Dyke.
…and of course, due in no small part to news channels like this one: many who’re going to vote Reform are unlikely to say so. My guess is we’ll end up with a strategic alliance between Plaid & Labour. Everyone will then know that it’s a less-than-legitimate administration, and when it turns out that the myriad problems caused by 27 years of Labour/PC will get even worse that Senedd government will be utterly despised. What Labour/PC will also have to worry about in this scenario – and for the first time ever – will be a large and very vocal… Read more »
A coalition with Labour would lead to political suicide for Plaid. Not sure they would risk it.
Suppose there was a same feeling for some in Germany 1936.
As Jewish people have once again found out today. Although I can’t pin that on Reform…
Reform leadership has quite rightly condemned what happened in Golders Green but don’t be deceived there are Reform Supporters and maybe some members who have form for posting Anti Semetic Posts on Social Media
I reckon it’ll be safe to say upwards of 70% of voters will reject the “Big Three” parties – Labour, Lib Dem, Tory. But to back another England based party with colonial designs is rather like gradually developing a preference for methadone over heroin.
Will somebody please explain this to Plaid Cymru HQ: if you want to beat Reform, you have to go after Labour. Constantly labelling Reform as racists or choatic is not going to deter their voters, people already know who Reform are and are voting for them regardless. Out of frustration with the political establishment, nothing is going to stop them voting Reform. And in Wales, Labour ARE the establishment. They have taken the Welsh electorate for granted for far too long. If over the next week Plaid focus on Labour’s record, call out their complacency, and present a positive, credible… Read more »
Frightening times. What has happened to people where they think removal of a nation’s government, language and right to self determination is a viable option?
You can understand people from other countries wanting the destruction of Cymru, but to have our own natives supporting the filth of racism is just sickening.
When they come for the friends of people that voted for reform or the policies wreck the place there will be a lot of buyers remorse but it will be too late then
Starmer knows what the result will be in Wales and Scotland , I can see why he is not leaving England, and has not talked about anything except his own misgivings. Strange to think that Blair gave the opportunity for the Senedd and Holyrood to exist , thinking it would quell independence attitudes .
But it could end up with three parts of the U.K with nationalist parties in charge.
Not in Wales. We will end up with Reform and we will be doomed. Westminster gets to take back devolution without firing a shot.
Seems Plaid will possibly get their co-habitational friends , the Labour Party , with a small portion of Greens on the side , let’s hope they don’t make a meal of it to get them over the line. Reform just have the Tories to assist them. But it will be close.
Plaid’s Self-ID policy is one of the most terrifying things I’ve come across. No wonder people (especially women) are turning away from them.
Yay, top marks for shoe-horning in a bit of transphobia. What’s your alternative suggestion for how we can support the trans people in our communities?
I’d say you just need to abide by the clear SC judgement and ensure that biological men and boys stay out of the loos, changing rooms, hospital wards, sports etc of biological women and girls. Simple. That really is all there is to it. Self ID means that anyone can declare themselves a woman and walk into any biological female-only space. Bad policy. Dangerous even. Respect to trans people as always.
Its not devolved in Wales
But PC wants it to be. Huge can of worms and potentially horrendous for Welsh women and girls.
We have a UK Supreme Court decision that Plaid cannot override. But go ahead and give your vote to Reform instead. They will try to take even more of your rights if they can.
We were told by pollsters all the way up to polling day that Reform were going to win Caerphilly. Come election night and Plaid won by 4,000 votes. Reform have big problems getting their vote out.
We have PR now though which could open a huge can of worms during this election.
The threat posed by Reform to our country is real. They are engaged in fantasy politics, demonising immigrants while promising a land of milk and honey to those long-suffering voters in neglected communities throughout Wales—communities damaged by the very same political hierarchy whose members, until recently, were card-carrying Conservatives, like Farage’s office junior, Dan Thomas. I sincerely believe the Welsh electorate will come to their senses before it is too late and not put their country, families and future into the hands of those who used and abused them.
#Ymlaen 🏴. #VotePlaidCymruMay7th 🏴 #PutWalesFirstNotNigelFarage 🏴#Reform 🏴 #DanThomas 🏴 #NigelFarage 🏴
I admire your optimism.
Is it too much to hope that the muppet Reform supporters are not the type of people who actually make it to the polling station on the day?