Reform has narrow lead over Plaid in latest Senedd poll
Martin Shipton
A new poll on voting intention for next year’s Senedd election puts Reform UK in the lead on 29%, with Plaid Cymru two points behind on 27% and Labour languishing in third place on 18%
The Conservatives are on 11%, with both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens on 7%.
A seat projection calculated by the public affairs company Canendish Cymru puts Reform on 34 seats, Plaid Cymru on 30, Labour on 21, the Conservatives on 8, the Liberal Democrats on 2 and the Greens on 1.
All Members would be elected by the closed list form of proportional representation.
Super constituencies
According to the projection, seats would be allocated in the 16 new “super constituencies” as follows:
Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2
Bangor Conwy Môn: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2: Conservative 1
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 2; Reform 2
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Liberal Democrat 1; Labour 1; Conservative 1
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Liberal Democrat 1
Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid Cymru 2; Reform 2; Labour 1; Greens 1
Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1
Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 2; Conservative 1
Clwyd: Reform 2; Conservative 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Labour 1
Fflint Wrecsam: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservative 1
Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4; Reform 2
Gŵyr Abertawe: Reform 2: Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 2
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2; Labour 2; Plaid Cymru 1; Conservative 1
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr:Reform 2; Plaid Cymru 2; Labour 2
Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Reform 2; Labour 2; Conservative 1: Plaid Cymru 1
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3; Reform 3
Eluned Morgan
According to the projections, First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat, but former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price – who has been placed third by party members on the Sir Gaerfyrddin closed list – would be re-elected.
The most likely outcome of an election with such results would be some kind of arrangement between Plaid Cymru and Labour – either with a Plaid-led coalition or a minority Plaid government in a “confidence and supply” deal with Labour. However, either of these scenarios would entail Labour MSs having to vote for Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister. Some would see that as a bitter pill to follow – but arguably preferable to a Reform First Minister.
Pollsters Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 2,101 adults in Wales from June 5 to June 16. The sample was nationally representative of Wales in terms of gender, age , Welsh region, the ability (or not) to speak Welsh and how they voted in the 2024 general election.
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Good grief. I assume much of that 29% think that it won’t be them that Farage wants to send down a coal mine, or that they’ll be relying on an Americanised health insurance system or have their public services slashed further by so-called DOGE.
The way Labour and the Tories have fed the Reform monster is an absolute disgrace.
So depressing. RS Thomas was right.
Sadly, I rather suspected this would be the way that the electoral wind might be blowing right now. But there’s still eleven months to go before the election takes place, and that’s more than long enough for things to change. I still doubt that Reform is likely to garner enough electoral support to be able to form the next Welsh government – especially in the context of the new fully PR electoral system. But unless current trends change very significantly across the next few years I do fear that the next Westminster election might conceivably deliver Farage as the next… Read more »
Well it looks like Plaid and Labour are going to eat humble pie and work together to keep some semblance of decency in the Senedd.
Again. Same old.
It would be a huge mistake for Plaid to keep Labour in power. Rhun should be the next First Minister, Labour have had enough time to bring prosperity to Cymru – they’ve FAILED.
With these numbers there’s no alternative.
We should be concerned about the situation but there is still just under a year to go before the election and Reform have not yet been fully scrutinised by anyone. Farage may well be the face that’s seen by the Welsh public but he is not the Reform Welsh leader – there isn’t one. How exactly is Farage going to bring establish a new blast furnace or reopen coal mines? It’s all false talk that could come back to haunt him. I’m sure other parties will put him under extreme pressure on these issues. The fight has not begun yet… Read more »
That’s the issue though, he’s not put under any pressure by anyone to explain himself or his lack of credible policies. He’s allowed to operate in a miasma of outrageous lies, half truths and populist nonsense. He’s never even been held to account for all the nonsense he spouted about Brexit and god knows we’ve all had enough time to mull that over!
It’s all smoke and mirrors, but unfortunately a large part of the public don’t bother to look at policies in detail, and will follow who shouts the simplest solutions and catchiest sound bites the loudest.
The problem is that people don’t engage with the economy except when it hits them and hits them hard. I can see the damage that Trump has done to the American economy; for example, Pfizer share price is only half it was couple of years ago. The Anti-vax crew are in positions of power there. Same for other non-tech shares. The newspapers and the broadcasting services are controlled from outside Wales and are not acting in the interest of Wales. The newspapers are not holding Farage to account for the damage done by Brexit. The Daily Fail, one of the… Read more »
Confirms what we already suspected. Next year’s election looks like a two horse race, and hopefully Plaid end up the biggest party when all the votes have been counted.
It will be vital that all of Reform’s opponents quote all of Farage’s past comments (admiration for Thatcher, his wish to privatise the NHS, etc.) on their election leaflets to remind everyone what he’s really like. It’s all to play for.
It’s only a poll I suppose; but the previous one suggested that disaffected Labour voters were moving to Plaid. This suggests that some of them at least are heading for Reform – and it puts a rightist coalition only 7 short of a majority. Moreover if I understand the new voting system correctly, any party going north of 30% sees a disproportionate increase in the number of seats won. End of days perhaps?
These numbers do suggest disproportionality as you say, if Reform can get 35% of the seats with 29% of the votes, while the Dems and Greens together get just 3% of the seats with 14% of the combined vote.
Except for a few constituencies voting Green or Lib Dem is a waste and is like a vote for Reform. Green and Lib Dem voters need to vote Plaid or Labour. Unless of course they don’t mind Reform. Something I very much doubt.
With preference voting everyone could vote for who they want first, before voting against who they don’t.
Voting reform should’ve solved the problem of not being able to support the one you want for fear of helping the one you don’t.
Unfortunately the d’Hondt system tends to exclude smaller parties so some tactical voting is still required.
In comparison to the last poll Labour is still at 18%. Its more likely Tory voters who are going to Reform.
I’m sure Tory voters are deserting them for Reform; but Plaid are down compared to the previous poll. I’m wondering whether that’s ex Labour voters changing their minds? According to the website referenced in the article, it only needs Reform/Tories to put on another 3-4% at the expense of Plaid/Labour to get a majority!
I have 2 questions for Nigel Farage or Reform UK members regarding their proposal for Wales…. 1) Who will own the coal mines and steelworks, and more importantly who will profit from them? Will Reform insist that they are Welsh owned (ie owned by the Welsh Government, or by a private Welsh company), so that they have a stake in the Welsh economy and that the profits STAY in Wales and not exploited by London or a foreign company? 2) How does Reform UK plan to address Wales’ brain drain? Not everyone in a First world democracy wants to work… Read more »
Perhaps they’ll be owned by Reform UK Ltd.
Those voters must be gluttons for punishment if they trust Reform UK, a party with no leader, Senedd candidates or deliverable Welsh policies? Has anyone asked these would-be voters what do they want to see Reform do in Wales? Are they basing their opinion on reading English newspapers, watching GB News, or reacting to social media posts the reason why they’d vote for such a party? Those fronting Reform UK are responsible for the very problems we face now. After all, Brexit is Nigel Farage’s baby. It’s caused so many economic and political issues in Wales and Britain. And if… Read more »
Like Trump supporters, fans of Farage don’t do detail or consequences. The deluge of incoherent statements is designed to get the opposition in a spin. The trick is not to fall for it.
If Rhun ap Iorwerth had any sense he would be cosying up to the Welsh Tories and Lib Dems. A coalition of the damned with Labour will rightfully finish them off.
Pa syndod. Mae Cymru yn llawn dop i’r ymylon o wladychwyr a Chymry plastig.
Not sure whether scrutiny of Reform’s ‘policies’ would make much difference to voting intentions. Farage is popular as Boris Johnson was popular, a celebrity politician with wide brand recognition. Labour and Plaid need a tightly focused campaign now, to spell out what American style Medicaid would mean for Wales.
US medicaid is being gutted, millions are losing even that safety net. reform will mean you will have to buy your insulin (people die in the US because they cannot afford a cheap drug that is priced high), your heart meds as well, too expensive? Tough. Insurance companies will not insure you with existing conditions unless you can afford the hefty premiums. One of the recent stories behind insulin is someone who had to sell everything off, even their home and pets pets and still they could not afford insulin. Seen the way vets are pricing people into expensive insurance… Read more »
The difference between Plaid and Reform is still within the margin of error.
It’s going to be tough to explain to the hard of thinking that just coming first in this race isn’t enough to govern.
I find the structure of Reform interesting and its change of names. Unlike most political parties that are owned at some measure by their members, Reform is owned by a company. Interestingly, the company that owns Reform is, itself, owned by another company. This is their Electoral Commission entry – https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP793 Reform’s Companies House entry for “Persons with Significant Control” https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11694875/persons-with-significant-control So Reform is owned by another Company, “Reform 2025 Ltd”. Who owns Reform 2025? https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/16260766/officers I suspect that they both own 50% but I have not dug that deep. Who is the other owner of Reform? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zia_Yusuf Being an… Read more »