Reform has seven-point lead in poll for Wales-wide Senedd election
Martin Shipton
Reform UK has opened up a seven-point lead over Labour, with Plaid Cymru a further point behind, in an exclusive Beaufort Research poll on Senedd voting intention for Nation.Cymru.
Reform is on 30% (up 5 points since our last Beaufort poll in June); Labour is on 23% (-4); Plaid Cymru 22% (+1); Conservative 11% (-2); Green 9% (+3); Liberal Democrat 4% (no change); and other parties 1% (-1).
A seat projection using software designed for Cavendish Consulting would see Reform as the biggest party with 37 seats, Plaid Cymru with 25 seats, Labour with 24, the Conservatives 7, Green Party 2 and Liberal Democrats 1.
According to the projection, First Minister Eluned Morgan would not be re-elected to the Senedd.
However, Reform would not be able to form a government and the strongest likelihood is that there would be some arrangement between Plaid Cymru and Labour.
Constituency projections can be seen at the bottom of this story.
Variations
There were variations in support according to region, gender, age, social grade and whether voters could speak Welsh.
For the purposes of the poll, Wales was split into three regions: North and Mid Wales; South West Wales and Valleys; and Cardiff and South East Wales.
In North and Mid Wales Reform is on 27%, Plaid Cymru 25%, Labour 16%, Conservative, 13%, Green 13%, Liberal Democrat 5% and other parties 1%.
In South West Wales and Valleys Reform is on 28%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 25%,Conservative 10%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 1%.
In Cardiff and South East Wales, Reform is on 37%, Labour 26%, Plaid Cymru 16%Conservative 9%, Green 8% other parties 0%.
Men were marginally more likely to vote for Reform than women. Among men Reform is on 32%, Labour 25%, Plaid Cymru 22%, Conservative 11%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 3% and other parties 1%.
Among women, Reform was at 29%, Plaid Cymru 22%, Labour 22%, Green 12%, Conservative 10%, Lib Dem 4%, other parties 1%.
In terms of age, 29% of people between 16 and 34 backed Labour, while Plaid Cymru was backed by 26%, Reform 17%, Green 14%, Lib Dem 7%, Conservative 5% and other parties 3%.
Of those aged between 35 and 54, Reform had the backing of 33%, Labour 21%, Plaid Cymru 21%, Conservative 11%, GTreen 11%, Lib Dem 3%, other parties 0%.
Those aged 55 and over split Reform 34%, Labour 22%, Plaid Cymru 22%, Conservative 13%, Green 6%, LibDem 3%, other parties 1% .
In terms of social grade, those in the more prosperous ABC1 grades were far less likely to vote for Reform than those in the poorer C2DE grades.
Among ABC1s, Labour and Plaid Cymru were both on 26%, with Reform on 22%, Conservative 11%, Green 9%, Lib Dem 4% and other parties 1%.
Among C2DEs, Reform led with 39% of the vote, followed by Labour on 20%, Plaid Cymru 18%, Conservative 11%, Green 9%, Lib Dem 3% and other parties 1%.
Welsh speakers
Welsh speakers were far more likely to vote for Plaid Cymru than those who can’t speak the language and far less likely to back Reform.
Welsh speakers split 45% for Plaid Cymru, 19% for Reform, 16% Labour, 9% Green, 7% Conservative 4% LibDem and 1% other parties.
Non-Welsh speakers split Reform 33% Reform, Labour 25%, Plaid Cymru 16%, Conservative 12%, Lib Dem 3% and other parties 1%.
The Beaufort poll differs from last month’s YouGov poll for ITV Wales, which saw Plaid Cymru in the lead with 30%, closely followed by Reform on 29%, Labour 14%, Conservative 11%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 6% and other parties 1%.
Detailed seat projections
Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Bangor Conwy Mon: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1,
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Reform 2
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Lib Dem 1
Caerdydd Ffynon Taf: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
Caerdydd Penarth: Labour 2, Reform 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1
Casnewydd Islwyn: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Ceredigion Penfro: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1
Clwyd: Reform 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1
Fflint Wrecsam: Reform 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1
Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 4, Reform 2
Gwyr Abertawe: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Reform 3, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1
Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Reform 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Plaid Cymru 1
Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform 2, Labour 1
The headline voting intention data is based on 533 respondents across Wales interviewed online between September 22 and October 12 who fulfilled all the following criteria:
Those aged 16+.
Those who stated a preference for a party (ie excluding those who would not vote, don’t know how they would vote or prefer not to say).
Those who said they are 9 or 10 out of 10 in terms of their certainty to vote in a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Election (ie excluding those who say they are 8 out of 10 or below).
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Makes for sad reading🫣 If those fascists were to form a govt. or be the largest party, i would seriously consider moving to Scotland or Eire, if they would have me. The thought of frog face lauding it over his fiefdom would be too much for my stomach to take. Labour should do the decent thing and stand down for progressives to take control of the Senedd
“Labour should do the decent thing and stand down for progressives to take control of the Senedd”. Really? What about the Greens standing down? They have 9% of the vote there and 2 seats. The real worry is the delusional Your Party lot looking at this and thinking they should enter the fray to further split the left of centre vote and hand the election to the far-right on a plate.
Maybe they should both stand down to allow more effective tactical voting against deform and its evil.
I agree with you about Your Party. I spoke to a couple of their members about the Caerphilly by-election. In their eyes anyone who doesn’t support them is considered ‘far right’. That includes Plaid because they are nationalists who also embrace the capitalist system.
The use of the word “progressive” is offensive. A lot of the so-called progressives have sat on their hands for too long just taking their salaries and created the context for the AngloBrit supremacists to wade in and make an even bigger mess.
Them too.
You need to spend some time researching what Fascism is! A word banded round by useful idiots!
First time I’ve heard Labour called Fascists as correct as it may be particularly for their extreme left, Frog face is a new one for Two Tier Starmer as well.
Off you go then. Have a nice life.
If Reform win then that is the most damning indictment of Labour’s 25 year tenure and devolution itself. Horrendous that they are anywhere near winning.
It’s more of an indictment of Starmer tbh. Welsh Labour was doing reasonably well… until Starmer got in.
Nye will be turning in his grave. A terrible indictment of our political naivity.
Yes, Thatcherism has a lot to answer for.
Nye would be turning in his grave at how Welsh labour has run the nhs. It’s a shambles.
Not much you can do after over a decade of real term cuts and rising expenses.
If the English Nationalist Party Reform win it will be a damning indictment of Cymru full stop…
True.
Who knew we had so many anti Welsh living amongst us?
So very true. Good question.
I don’t think it’s self-loathing, but something much worse, ignorance.
How is calling someone “anti Welsh” defining who is and isn’t Welsh?
Also wind your neck in with the “people like you”.
They have always been there. Labour voters
Lol….only the labour stooges at deryn consulting (now cavendish) would put out a poll showing Labour ahead of plaid…..strange how everyone else’s polls shows nothing of the kind. Indeed polling for the upcoming caerphilly by-election has Labour at just 12%.
A constituency poll is a lot different to a national poll especially in a constituency like Caerphilly where there has been disquiet with Labour not just with non Labour supporters but within Labour itself, from the 2 Chief Executive pay and NDA issues, the current suspension of some democratic process for half of the County not in the Caerphilly Senedd constituency, proposed closing of community assets and Community Meals although latter has been postponed, Leaders of the Labour Council embroiled in scandals over latter years, the Welsh Labour Executives treatment of local members have all contributed to a collapse of… Read more »
Too many solicitors in this political broth…The Tin Tin Effect…
Wales was a contender (and is still in with a chance) but needs to shed some control freaks who have tweaked the system in a ‘Twmpian’ fashion…
Ah, the Deryn Girls – 533 valid responses, hardly representative – anyone who has ever designed and administered a questionnaire knows full well the effect of self-selection
only 501 i the Caerphilly poll
501 respondents covering one constituency is a much higher proportion of the population in that particular constituency than a poll of 533 covering 16 constituencies in the whole of Wales (averaging out at just 33 respondents per constituency).
There is something not right with these polls. Even allowing for sample size, regional variations, margins of error, etc there surely can’t be an 8-10 point difference between Plaid and Labour support comparing Beaufort and YouGov? Someone is way off the mark.
Sure there can, they have different methodologies and weight things differently. Even the phrasing of the question can change the result. Also having the polling companies take different bets, allows them to stand out from the others if their predictions comes true.
In which case, worthless as any guide.
There are plenty within the Labour Party who actually want Reform to do well. This is evident in the run-up to the Caerphilly by-election by falsely claiming that a vote for ‘Plaid is a vote for Reform’ and that ‘only Labour can stop Reform’. Were Reform to actually form a government in Wales, Labour would be able to demonstrate to the rest of the UK how bad they are at governance. Look at what is happening in Kent. Moreover it would potentially damage the independence movement, as any campaign for further devolution would be seen as ’empowering the far right’,… Read more »
In a way I wouldn’t mind it as long as it resulted in the right becoming more pro-devolution.
The Caerphilly by-election result on Thursday will give us a much better idea of where the parties stand at the moment. This poll might prove to be pretty accurate or it could be exposed as a load of old cobblers!! We’ll just have to wait and see.
BTW, a poll of just 533 respondents across the whole of Wales is absolutely tiny and has to be taken with a huge pinch of salt.
Also it’s an online poll and Reform supporters are *very* online.
But proportionally larger than the usual 1000 or so in polls covering the whole of the UK. The 8/10 likely to vote bar seems high to me. Wonder what the result would be with 7/10s included.
Some people (mainly Labour activists) questioned the validity of the recent Caerphilly poll because it had a very similar number of respondents (501). Personally, I would have much more faith in a poll of 501 covering one constituency than in a poll which averages out at just 33 respondents per constituency.
Can’t disagree with that.
If Reform become the largest party in the Senedd, the nominally left-of-centre parties shouldn’t immediately do a deal to lock Reform out of power. Instead, they should let Reform try to form a minority government, no matter how unviable, and then vote them down at every opportunity.
Even if Reform, God forbid, achieve a working majority, it wouldn’t be long before they implode catastrophically.
They can’t get along with each other at council level. “Backstabbers and cowards”, according to the leader of Kent CC
Where does a disaffected Reform politician jump – back to Tories or form their own even further-right party?
The problem with this strategy is that it gives Reform a get out of jail card. If they were allowed to form a government only to be voted down at every turn, they would simply blame the opposition for blocking them, potentially making them even more popular. In today’s world of populist politics and social media spin, performance often matters less than the story people believe. That’s why it’s better for the left-of-centre parties to find common ground, form a stable government, and show through action, and clear communication, that politics can still improve people’s lives.
One should not dismiss opinion polls simply because they do not favour one’s preferred party. When properly conducted, polls can offer a reasonably reliable indication of public sentiment. However, Beaufort’s surveys sample only around 500 respondents across Wales—roughly half the size of most national polls—and tend to overstate support for Labour. More established pollsters, such as YouGov, present a markedly different picture.
Most Welsh people are not anti-Zionist or into global solidarity cultural Left stuff, and I am sorry to say that Welsh Nationalists will have to learn that the hard way, possible by losing our Senedd if they don’t listen. I hope not.
Most people would not understand the first half of your sentence but are absolutely decent folk but then I’m up here…
You’re quite right, none of are against Israel existing, we’re just against genocide and the wiping or ethnic cleansing of culture and peoples.
Well I vehemently disagree with you about Welsh people being Anti Zionist.
There are Ultra Orthodox Jews and Holocaust Survivors who are Anti Zionist.
There’s a lot of naive voters in Wales if this poll is to be believed. Reform UK have no Welsh policies, wish to devolve further powers to our parliament, or even leader in Wales. That’s the contempt shown towards our democracy. But I do look forward to seeing Nigel Farage scrutinised leading up to the Senedd election. Only then will voters see this man and party for what he and they really are. A fly by night egotist full of anti-Welsh English imperialists who have zero interest in Wales other than using the Senedd as a stepping stone to Westminster.… Read more »
Proper tin foil hat wearers who believe the world is out to get them. I suspect many of them don’t have jobs and feel that all of ‘their’ jobs have been taken by ‘them foreigners’.
I know from personal experience a reform voter in Wales… fortunately, they say they’re not voting Reform next time they’re voting Advance UK (facepalm).
So a Pyrrhic victory awaits Reform
After all that saturation bombing with Turquoise candy floss
Reform resigned to be just a pack snapping dogs as its business as usual for Plaid/Labour
You can almost taste the bile and vitriol
It’s sad and frightening that a Nazi orientated party like Reform are topping the voting polls. Don’t people remember what happened in Germany which led to WW2.
Is this the same Cavendish Consulting that says 72% of Reform voters in Wales support renewables?
That’s similar from a poll during the Margaret Thatcher era when a similar number of Sun Readers thought that the Sun was a Labour Newspaper.
The Green Party and Plaid Cymru should form an electoral alliance for the coming 2026 Senedd election.
With the election of Zack Polanski to the federal green Party leadership, and the Green Party acceptance to work towards an independent Wales, Scotland and England.
This is an opportunity that must not be lost as the combined alliance could ensure that Wales will get the result the people need for self determination.
And, as a nation would not have a government alongside Welsh Labour with Starmer having the last word.