Reform leads over Plaid again in latest Senedd poll
Emily Price
A new poll on voting intention for next year’s Senedd election puts Reform UK in the lead, with 28 per cent of the vote, followed closely by Plaid Cymru on 26 per cent.
The exclusive More in Common survey for Sky News saw Labour’s vote share among Welsh voters fall to 23 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Welsh Conservatives find themselves on 10 per cent.
According to the projection, less than half (48 per cent) of Labour’s 2024 voters would back the party in a Senedd election today.
Their largest losses have been to Plaid Cymru (15 per cent), followed by Reform (11 per cent).
However, a significant proportion of Labour’s 2024 voters (13 per cent) are undecided about how they would vote if a Senedd election were held today.
Westminster voting intention shows significant vote-splitting between Westminster and the Senedd.
Approval ratings
While Labour’s vote share has also collapsed in Westminster polling – the beneficiaries are Reform, not Plaid with Nigel Farage’s party leading with a third of the vote.
Much like in England and Scotland, every major politician and party has a negative approval rating in Wales.
However, Reform and Plaid Cymru – along with their respective leaders are the least unpopular.
Reform UK and Plaid Cymru both have a net approval of -7.
Similarly, Plaid leader Rhun ap lorweth’s approval rating is -7, with Farage behind on -10.
The poll shows that Welsh party leaders are seen far more favourably than their Westminster counterparts.
Darren Millar’s net approval rating of -13, significantly higher than Kemi Badnenoch’s on -27.
Popularity
The Welsh First Minister’s approval rating of -18, while low, is far higher than the Prime Minister’s approval of -44.
Keir Starmer is the least popular party leader among the Welsh public with only 17 per cent of Welsh people thinking he’s doing a good job.
61 per cent think he’s doing a bad job.
In an interview with Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby for the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Baroness Eluned Morgan described the threat from Reform UK as “very serious”.
She said: “We’re taking it very seriously, and we think the threat from reform is a very serious threat.
“And I think that people in Wales need to understand it as such, because the things that they used to, things like free prescriptions, you know, we give free school meals to all our primary school children, there’s a cap on care of £100 a week in Wales, in real living wage for for care workers in Wales.
“We don’t pay for hospital parking, there’s all kinds of things where people just think these things are always going to be there and they could be snatched away.”
‘Work’
Asked whether she took any of the blame for turning Welsh voters away from Labour, the FM admitted there was a lot of work to do to bring voters back on side.
She said: “I think it’s really important that we’re authentic and we’re clear with people about what we stand for.
“I think we’ve gotta lead with our values so we’re about bringing communities together not dividing them and I do think that what reform is interested in is dividing people and people do need to make choices on things like that.
“So what I won’t be doing in Wales is chasing reform down a path. Where we can try and out Reform, reform.
“I’m not interested in that, because those aren’t my values. Not interested in it.
“So what we’ll be doing is offering a very clear alternative, which is about bringing communities together.”
‘Barge pole’
Baroness Morgan warned that there is a possibility Reform would be the largest party in the Senedd.
But asked if the FM would be willing to form a coalition government with Reform UK she replied: “I wouldn’t touch reform with a barge pole.”
She said: “The way that the new voting mechanism will work means that it would be difficult for them to rule by themselves.
“But, you know, at the moment, we’ve got to take that very seriously, and I think it is important people recognise that there are things that we see everyday in our lives in Wales.
“Maybe it snatched away from us, you know, and the kind of stability that we’ve had for a long time, you know we’ve always got work to do, of course we’ve got work to do.
“I’m really keen to drive the economy in Wales to get better jobs and things, you know.
“I think we’ve gotta do more in that space. But, you know, are people gonna come and invest in Wales if you’ve got Reform at the helm?
“I mean, I get really worried about things like that.”
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We need Plaid to really up their ante and figure out what is drawing folks to Reform. Clear policies and changes they will make. Labour under Starmer just seem to want to follow Reform which doesn’t make sense. It just reinforces their opponents.
What is drawing people to Reform ? The fact that Wales does not own nor control its own broadcast and printed media. We allow English parties to stand in our Senedd and local elections. Those parties whether conservative, labour or reform are dominating, profiteering and using us. They, as much as their imperial government in London. Wales and Scotland are separate countries with unique cultures as much as every other country in Europe. They must have the power to pursue their own destinies and that is the same for England. There could be a Benelux type consultation council, but we… Read more »
Quote: “The fact that Wales does not own nor control its own broadcast and printed media.” Traditional media such as newspapers, TV news, and radio are no longer the dominant force they once were. More and more people are turning to platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok for political content. This is where populist parties and movements are thriving. Their messages are short, emotionally charged, and anti-establishment which is perfect for going viral in a digital landscape shaped by short attention spans and growing distrust in mainstream institutions. I completely agree that Wales needs control over its own media, but… Read more »
I agree entirely with the point about the importance of digital media; but I worry about the increasing use of the phrase “control of the media”. I don’t want anyone in control thank you very much – I want a free press. I’m not suggesting that people are advocating a Goebbles-style approach; but it’s dangerous terminology. Nation Cymru being refused accreditation at the recent Welsh Labour conference is a good and recent example of what starts to happen if we are not very careful.
Stalinists controlled Russia’s media as does the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) control China’s media. What you propose is a version of “1984” where ‘big brother’ (the state) controls the media.
Reform voters are mainly right leaning English immigrants (too many of them in Cymru) propped up by a variety of Dic Sion Dafydd types.
These groups aren’t going to vote for Plaid and there’s no point wasting time and effort trying to get them to do so.
So, Eluned Morgan talks a good talk about not trying to out-Reform Reform. Last night on Newsnight, a Labour MP, Trapp, patronised an immigration campaigner with the phrase “People of a certain ideology” before going on a Right Wing Trumpian ramble about criminal immigrants being paedophiles and racists.
Nice try Eluned. Labour has been captured by Capital and the Right.
Vote Plaid Cymru
Mike Trapp MP (Labour, Dover and Deal) actually let slip that the Westminster Government intends to conduct “offshore processing” to divert small boats crossing the channel. A kind of Rwanda MK2. He refused to specify which overseas country they wish to use or in discussions with. It may be a British enclave within France. Don’t think this is either a goer or if it was attempted would work. Why vote Labour when you get Reform?
Labour is playing into the hands of Reform.
Reform is a far right party and aligns itself with Trump’s republican fascists.
Once we had Labour donkeys. Now we have Reform donkeys.
Why insult people by calling them donkeys?
I hope Plaid really go through with a robust policy for a wealth tax. Everyone on the right has been tearing me apart when I proposed it saying those at the lower should stand on their own 2 feet. I said it is not always possible for disabled people to stand on their feet. Everyone wants to work and earn money. Even criminals put in a lot of effort. If not watch the movie “heat” and see how much effort Robert De Niro and his crew put in. Misplaced intentions and clearly wrong. I am just making a point. Shutting… Read more »
The current tax system and what Wales could do is restricted by the boundaries they have to raise or lower tax.
Labour have declined to use the process to date.
Why tax the wealthy even more than than they already pay? They will only leave the country. To get the economy working people need to be working.
Once again this poll, with the Greens on a pathetic 4% shows that a vote for them is a complete waste and will only weaken the anti-right/far-right parties and give a helping hand to Reform.
Green is a misnomer, it should be the Pylons and Turbines for Rural Areas Party.
An interesting piece in today’s Financial Times, Reform have just relaxed their vetting procedures for candidates. Those who have failed earlier vetting are ‘invited to reapply’.
Getting a bit desperate? Clean skinned Patriotic Alternative members in with a shout?
This just confirms what we already knew. It’s all to play for and it’s vital that the press keeps exposing Reform incompetence at the councils it now runs in England. Also, it must be noted that this was a relatively small sample size used for the poll (866 weighted, 883 unweighted).
Is there one “Welsh” Reform politician with any, even 1%, public recognition? Nathan Gill was any early runner but has problems at the moment. So just who do these potential voters think they are voting for or what they stand for?
There is less than a year to wake up these voters critical thinking caps and to not vote against their own self interests.
They all think they are voting for that lovely, charming, bit of a lad, tells it as it is, Nigel Farage (your risque mate from down the pub). Whenever someone says they are voting Reform in 2026 ask them whether they agree with Reform’s policies on education, health, transport, and economic development, and watch as their eyes pop out and their mouths open like goldfish.
No party could have failed more than Welsh Labour with policies like the blanket 20mph limit. they are a party which lacks common sense
Plaid want to separate Wales from the UK and become an independent country, where will the money come from when Westminster stop shelling out? Will Plaid put a land tax on farmers, mileage tax on Welsh roads, increase tourist taxes? Plaid cannot hold out a begging bowl to the EU. How will Plaid give free social care to all?
Plaid want pylons littering the country, ruining our beautiful country with ugly steel and concrete like Labour. Will the lovely green fields turn into vast glass, solar monstrosities?
I entirely agree and for the record have no time for the Farage the clown or his haff wit party. However, you have touched a nerve. With the closed list system to be used next year, can you honestly say how many candidates from any of the parties have any public recognition?
Who will be the potential First Minister in a Reform government? Nathan Gill, David Jones, someone helicoptered in from England now living in Wales? Because that’s what a vote for Reform would be for. Nigel Farage isn’t even standing. Even if you don’t support independence or agree with all the policies that Plaid Cymru want implemented, at least they put Wales first and foremost.
Whether or not they like it, Plaid and Labour’s hardcore voters are going to have to accept some form of alliance to keep the Senedd out of Farage’s clutches. Let’s face it, a Reform led Senedd will just be Farage’s puppet government in Wales.
Think you’re right, it’s no longer about ideological purity, it’s an existential necessity. Progressive parties of all types need to band together. Wales doesn’t need a devisive US-style import, if anything, Wales is about community.
A residency requirement for at least 2 years and a ban on second jobs. Senedd members are already paid an adequate income.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the residency requirement to represent Wales at rugby is 60 months. Do you. think what’s good enough for the WRU should be good enough for the Senedd?
Really? No wonder we are playing so crap
No place for reform or their supporters in Wales.
Keep this filth out of Wales
That is a horrible comment written out of fear and ignorance. You sound like an extreme far right supporter. I suggest you retract it, there are thousands of really nice, kind, caring, honest, law-abiding Reform supporters in Wales who would be shocked at your insult.