Reform support slips as Welsh leader claims party is ready to govern

Mark Mansfield

Reform UK’s support has fallen across every voter group tracked in research, despite the party’s dramatic breakthrough in Wales earlier this year.

The findings come just months after Reform won 34 seats at the Senedd election to become the official opposition, with its Welsh leader Dan Thomas recently presenting the party as a potential government-in-waiting.

Speaking to BBC Wales ahead of Reform’s party conference in Birmingham, Mr Thomas claimed it was “hard to see how this Welsh government will last the duration of the term” if Plaid Cymru continued to struggle to secure support for its financial measures.

He said Reform would be “prepared to take the reins” if the Welsh Government fell.

But new analysis by research and polling organisation More in Common suggests Reform could struggle to build on its electoral gains.

The report, Where next for Reform UK?, draws largely on polling and focus-group research across Great Britain rather than Wales specifically.

It says support for Reform has declined since last year’s conference and since the May elections across each of the seven voter groups it tracks.

The biggest fall has been among a group More in Common calls “Dissenting Disruptors”, described as frustrated voters seeking radical political change.

Support for Reform among the group has fallen by 15 percentage points since the previous party conference, with 11% now saying they intend to vote for Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain and others saying they would not vote.

Reform continues to lead among another group, dubbed “Rooted Patriots”, but the Conservatives are now only three points behind, while Labour has also made gains since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.

However, the report stresses that Reform’s support remains above its level at the 2024 general election.

Opposition

The research also points to growing opposition to Reform among voters who do not support the party.

More in Common found 37% of voters across Great Britain would be willing to vote against Reform in a general election if given the opportunity – a higher figure than for any other party.

The researchers caution that this does not necessarily mean those voters would actually vote tactically, but say it demonstrates the strength of anti-Reform sentiment.

The report cites the Caerphilly by-election as one contest where it believes such opposition has already been evident.

It says: “This is a factor we have seen play out in by-elections, from Caerphilly to Clacton, and in both in Manchester, and it may prove to be one of Reform’s greatest challenges in the coming years.”

Reform nevertheless retains a sizeable core vote.

One in 10 people questioned said they would definitely vote Reform if an election were held tomorrow – more than for any other party.

But 46% said they would definitely not vote for Reform, while around 30% gave themselves a greater than six-out-of-10 likelihood of backing the party.

Immigration

Immigration is the issue on which Reform’s different groups of supporters are most closely aligned.

Asked why they would consider voting for the party, 73% of “Traditional Conservatives”, 75% of “Dissenting Disruptors” and 81% of “Rooted Patriots” identified Reform’s immigration policies.

By comparison, just 5% of Rooted Patriots identified the party’s economic plans as a reason for considering voting Reform.

More in Common says Traditional Conservatives and Dissenting Disruptors tend to prioritise fiscal conservatism, welfare reform and tax cuts, while Rooted Patriots are more concerned with public services and the cost of living.

The report says Reform’s coalition has also narrowed after broadening considerably between 2024 and 2025, with support eroding among centre-right groups including Rooted Patriots and Traditional Conservatives.

Dissenting Disruptors now account for 43% of Reform’s support.

Farage

The figures also show a fall in Nigel Farage’s personal ratings.

His overall approval rating has fallen to minus 27, with around 40% of people questioned expressing strong disapproval.

His ratings have also fallen among groups central to Reform’s support, standing at plus seven among Dissenting Disruptors, plus five among Traditional Conservatives and minus 15 among Rooted Patriots.

The report says more than one in three voters identified what the poll described as Farage’s “sleaziness and corruption” as a barrier to voting Reform.

The finding reflects respondents’ perceptions rather than any finding of wrongdoing against the Reform leader.

At the same time, Farage remains overwhelmingly popular with existing Reform supporters, with more than three-quarters of those who voted for the party in 2024 continuing to view him favourably.

More in Common says voters considering Reform but not currently supporting it remain concerned about whether the party is ready for government.

Among those voters, 19% cited its lack of governing experience as a concern, while 18% questioned the credibility of its economic policies.

Focus-group participants attracted by Reform’s promise to “shake up” politics also expressed concerns that a government led by the party could prove too chaotic or radical.

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