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Reform UK to be Scotland’s second largest party at Holyrood, poll suggests

08 May 2025 4 minute read
The Scottish Parliament building at Holyrood in Edinburgh. Photo Jane Barlow/PA Wire

Reform UK would become the main opposition in Scotland if an election were held tomorrow, a survey has suggested.

The poll from Survation, commissioned by True North Advisors, puts Nigel Farage’s party slightly ahead of Labour as the second-largest political party at Holyrood.

According to the poll, the SNP would remain, by far, the biggest group in the Parliament, with 33% on the constituency vote and 29% on the regional vote.

Reform UK came second with 19% on the constituency vote and 20% on the list vote.

Labour was close behind with 19% on the first-past-the-post vote but fell slightly with 18% on the regional ballot.

The Tories were on 11% and 12% respectively while the Liberal Democrats were on 11% and 10%.

The Greens came in behind at 5% and 9% while Alba was last with 1% and 3% respectively.

Main opposition

According to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, the survey would see the SNP fall to 58 seats while Reform would be in second place with 21 seats.

That would make the party the Scottish Parliament’s main opposition in the event the SNP formed the next government.

Labour would place third again with 18 seats while the Tories would slip from Holyrood’s second biggest party to its fourth with just 13 seats.

Under the seat projection, the LibDems would increase its seat count to 10 while the Greens would stay at eight.

A total of 65 seats are needed to form a majority government in the Scottish Parliament.

A slim majority would vote to stay in the UK, the poll also found, with 51% opting for No and 49% for Yes.

“After its success in last week’s English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives’ and Labour’s prospects at Holyrood too,” Sir John said.

“More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year’s Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.

“As a result, Reform’s poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20% for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.”

The University of Strathclyde professor said the “fracturing of the unionist vote” in Scotland would be “good news” for the First Minister.

“Fascinating”

He said: “Even though the party’s share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood’s first past the post seats and, as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.

“Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland’s politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK.”

Fergus Mutch, True North’s managing partner, said: “A year out from a Holyrood election, our latest poll presents a fascinating set of results.

“The SNP remains, by some distance, the largest party but will have to look to other parties for the support needed to secure a working majority.

“The party of independence will, however, be asking itself why its electoral support lags so far behind the 49% of voters who wish to see Scotland go it alone.

“Reform UK, buoyed by their recent success in English local elections, are nipping at Labour’s heels on the constituency vote in Scotland and now a nose ahead on the list.

“Converting these figures into seats, we’re at a tipping point where they emerge as the second party in Scottish politics heading into a May 2026 election – representing a significant breakthrough north of the border.

“Anas Sarwar continues to struggle to catch a break – with the woes of his party at a UK level reflecting on his support in Scotland – and Reform UK nibbling away at enough of his vote share to prove a problem for him.

“The Conservatives, meanwhile, are being monstered by Reform and are at risk of tumbling from second to fourth place in Scottish politics.”

Some 1,020 people aged 16 or over were polled between May 2 and 5 for the survey.


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Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
6 hours ago

Reform in a kilt…this I’ve got to see…

hdavies15
hdavies15
5 hours ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

No more “impressive” than Reform with a leek in one hand and a sheep under the other arm !

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
4 hours ago
Reply to  hdavies15

Spikeists the pair of us…

Did you ever see the opening sequence in ‘The Englishman…’

hdavies15
hdavies15
3 hours ago
Reply to  Mab Meirion

I don’t open Englishmen very often… nothing to see. Of course if you are referring to the one that went up a hill …….my memory doesn’t serve me well on that film.

Mab Meirion
Mab Meirion
2 hours ago
Reply to  hdavies15

I’ll leave it for another day.

Reluctant to venture out, but three counties, two high passes and many rivers to cross…

How many gas mains blew up under the street bonfires I wonder,

It took my old man til 47 to get shot of all the left over munitions in the Beaufort Dyke and he was still doing it fifteen years later above Tin Town…

Tough job selling French fighters at the mo. Seems the Chinese job has the edge on all of them…oops!

Geraint
Geraint
6 hours ago

Labour have another home made policy disaster heading in their direction when the PIP proposals come into play. That is bound to cut their support even more.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
5 hours ago

I never want to hear this guys’ name again let alone see him ascend to leader but when honest Bob replaces floundering Kemi as leader, that will split the extremist vote between two competing hate parties and flush them back down the cess pit.

Annibendod
Annibendod
4 hours ago

Reform – the “Hiraeth for Empire” party. All the nations of the UK have a sizeable segment of Right Wing imperialists. Reform are a symptom of the underlying condition. Until the Empire is constitutionally dead and buried this reflex will persist. Why any progressive person supports the continuation of the UK State is utterly beyond me. Baffling. All British progressives should be working together to replace the UK. It is my honest conviction that a ground-up, democratic confederation of Wales, Scotland and England nation States is achievable and desireable.

Fi yn unig
Fi yn unig
3 hours ago
Reply to  Annibendod

Precisely. What has gone quiet is the quoted ‘Nations and Regions’ narrative. This sounded good to me without knowing its’ intention but if it goes along with your description and desire, and mine, and we have what increasingly many of us seem to want, an England, a Scotland and a Wales, this could be achieved, at least in an administrative fashion at minimum until people get used to having their country and progress to complete autonomy for each without the futile begging for a referendum to a master which will never grant it. This will ensure that never again will… Read more »

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