Retailers suffer ‘disappointing’ October amid pre-Budget jitters

Retailers suffered a “disappointing” October after pre-Budget uncertainty coupled with rising energy bills “spooked” consumers, figures suggest.

Total UK retail sales were up 0.6% year-on-year last month against a 2.6% increase last October, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor.

Food sales also experienced a lacklustre month, up 2.9% year-on-year compared with growth of 7.9% last October, and below the 12-month average growth of 4.1%.

Sales of products other than food were down 0.1% year-on-year over the three months to October, against a decline of 1% last October, and a slight improvement on the 12-month average fall of 1.6%.

Fashion sales

Fashion sales took the biggest hit as the mild weather delayed winter purchases, but health and beauty sales remained buoyant, boosted by beauty advent calendars “flying off the shelves”, the BRC said.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “After a good start to autumn, October’s sales growth was disappointing.

“This was part driven by half-term falling a week later this year, depressing the October figures, and November sales will likely see more of a boost.

“Uncertainty during the run-up to the Budget, coupled with rising energy bills, also spooked some consumers.

“After a painful Budget for retailers, the hope is it will be less painful for households in the immediate-term and consumer appetite will pick up in time for the Black Friday sales and festive season.

“Retailers must now grapple with over £5 billion of new costs announced by the Chancellor, including in employer national insurance, business rates and the uplift in the national living wage.

“Managing this will hold back investment and growth in the short-term, while further squeezing already low margins and risking inflation.”

Speculation

Linda Ellett, UK head of retail and leisure consumer markets at KPMG, said: “Speculation about the impact of the Budget, a holding back of demand until Black Friday promotions, and a later half-term break all impacted retail sales data over the last month.

“With clarity now provided by the Budget and many households escaping paying increased tax from their wages, retailers will be hoping for an upturn in consumer confidence and spending.

“Any positivity from retailers though will of course be dampened given the increased employment costs that they face.”

Meanwhile, separate figures from Barclays shows consumer card spending grew 0.7% year-on-year in October, a fall from September’s 1.2% increase.

Essential spending saw its greatest fall since April 2020, down 2.2%, while supermarket spending dipped by 0.8% amid concern about food price inflation.

Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said: “The days may be getting darker and longer, but Brits continue to find the bright spots by prioritising the things they love.

“The drumbeat of incredible music artists performing here in the UK, such as Coldplay, means entertainment spending continues to climb, having reached 13.5% growth in October.

“Meanwhile, the small screen continues to draw Brits to cosier evenings in, cutting back on evenings out at pubs, bars, and restaurants, instead enjoying streaming and shopping from the comfort of home.”