Row breaks out over Welsh Secretary’s cost of independence claims
Emily Price
A row has broken out over claims the Secretary of State for Wales made about the cost of Welsh independence during a Labour Party conference speech last month.
Jo Stevens claimed that Plaid Cymru’s vision of an independent Wales would cost £21 billion a year.
She warned that independence could drag the country back into austerity with working-age adults paying more than £11,000 extra each year in tax to retain the current level of public services.
The figures she quoted were obtained from perviously unpublished analysis by the UK Government.
Plaid Cymru disputed the figures and accused the Welsh Secretary of “peddling dodgy numbers”.
Current system
House of Commons Library analysis commissioned by Plaid’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, concluded that Labour’s figures describe Wales’ fiscal position within the current UK system – not what the country’s finances would look like after independence.
Ms Saville Robert’s says the fresh details confirm that there is no data source to support the Welsh Secretary’s claim that Welsh independence would cost £21 billion a year.
Asked by Ms Saville Roberts whether Ms Stevens’ figures show what Wales’ public finances would look like in year one of independence, the House of Commons Library service said: “While estimates of Wales’ fiscal deficit within the current constitutional settlement offer a starting point for discussing the challenges for an independent Wales’s public finances, they don’t show what the situation would be in year one of an independent Wales.”
The independent analysis concluded that the ONS data on which Ms Stevens’ claim is based is rather a “backward-looking estimate of Wales’ fiscal deficit within the UK”.
It added: “The public finances of an independent Wales on day one would differ from those outlined in the ONS’s data, due to the policy positions of an independent Welsh Government and the terms of any UK-Wales separation treaty.”
‘Dodgy numbers’
The analysis also concluded that the Welsh Secretary’s claims ignore the fact that “an independent government would be able to borrow to fund a deficit”, as is the case for all sovereign countries.
Ms Saville Roberts said: “The Secretary of State has been caught red-handed peddling dodgy numbers in a panic to distract from her own failures.
“Independent House of Commons Library analysis has exposed her lazy attack for what it is – a distortion of official statistics, not a serious assessment of Wales’s future.
“The House of Commons Library has now confirmed that this so-called ‘£21 billion cost’ is nothing more than a misuse of ONS data.
“The figures describe Wales’s fiscal position within the current UK system, not what our finances would look like after independence.
“Wales’s fiscal deficit is the direct result of Labour and Tory policies that have held back our economy for decades.
“Jo Stevens is only exposing her own party’s failure to grow the Welsh economy within the UK – it says nothing about what an independent Wales could achieve.
“While Labour is mudslinging out of desperation, Plaid Cymru is busy working on bold policies to improve people’s living standards as we approach the crucial Senedd election in May.”
Disputed
Nation.Cymru contacted Jo Stevens’ office and asked for details of how the UK Government came to its £21 billion a year figure.
Shortly after our question – the UK Government’s analysis was published online.
A Wales Office spokesperson said: “The Wales Office findings are based entirely on the most recent official national statistics.
“They are also akin to annually-produced Scottish Government analysis of expenditure and revenue.
“The official ONS data and the Wales Office analysis of it is published in full online and available for members of the public to read.”
Plaid Cymru says it stands by its analysis despite the publication of the UK Government stats.
‘Labour control’
Liz Saville Roberts added: “We do not dispute that the Wales Office’s figures are based on the most recent official national statistics under the status quo.
“What they do not show is what the fiscal position of an independent Wales would be, which has been confirmed by impartial House of Commons Library research, which says that the public finances of an independent Wales on day one would differ from those outlined in the ONS’s data.
“The Wales Office’s figures simply show the current fiscal situation of Wales under Labour control in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay.
“Plaid Cymru is not proposing a referendum in the first term. Our focus is on strengthening the Welsh economy so that the people of Wales can be confident that independence is not only achievable but offers a stronger, fairer future for our nation.”
A Labour Party source claimed Plaid Cymru wasn’t being “honest”.
They said: “Plaid are running scared from scrutiny of their disastrous plan for independence and talk about borrowing in a way that makes Liz Truss look like a model of fiscal responsibility.
“Labour believes in being transparent and have published this UK Government analysis in full. However, Plaid refuse to be honest about the cost of their independence plan and what it would mean for Wales.
“If they seriously plan to borrow £21.5b each and every year people deserve to know. If not, they need to say what taxes they will raise, or which public services they will cut to fund Independence.”
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Don’t believe the ONS figures. I’m a Scot, I live in a country that had more oil and gas than Norway, yet according to UK government figures my country has been a parasite on the UK, needing financial support to keep us in the relative poverty we are used to. Do you remember how they hid the McCrone report about how rich Scotland would be? Remember how in 2014 they said there was no oil left and Scotland would be a basket case? They do this all the time. Both Cymru and Scotland need to be brave, we need our… Read more »
It’s too bad we have to ask another country for our independence. So nonsensical, dated and disrespectful. If England had to give back everything they have “acquired” from other nations they would end up skint. Parasites the bloody lot of them.
The ONS is an independent body that should be respected.
Many past UK politicians warned against and poured scorn on many countries of the British Empire that favoured independence for their own country that was later gained (e.g., Ireland and Malta). Our Welsh Secretary, Jo Stevens, is emulating them by denigrating any aspirations of Wales wanting independence quoting a spurious cost of £21bn. She never mentions the cost of remaining in the UK. The UK government debt is now £2,729.6bn. With a population of 66.9m this equates to a massive £39,218 per person (90.5% of GDP). Wales would surely do better than this, especially in the long-term.
Hahaha coming from Jo I’ve done nothing for Cymru Stevens
Labour loves to throw smoke and mirror figures in the hope that it will frighen the natives into submission.
Yeah. Typical language of an abusive relationship – ‘you’ll never survive without me.’
lmao, Jo Stevens, perpetrator of Financial Abuse. Pretty sure that’s a crime.
Disclaimer: Please don’t mistake this as treating Financial Abuse lightly, Financial Abuse is a very serious problem in domestic relationships in the UK. It’s unfortunate that the parallels with the Welsh Secretary’s view points seem to dove tail perfectly.
When it comes to ‘independence’ it is never an economic decision, it is a Values decision. Of course we would all be better off if one small team governed everyone in the world by way of a benevolent monarchy, there would be moral offsets and not everyone would be treated equally, but most would certainly end up richer. The problem is that… most people put a high value on other things, like the right to self determination, to choose to work together to achieve common objectives or individually, they might want to protect the environment where as another group of… Read more »
Jacob Rees Mogg who to be fair has always had Wales best interests close to his heart has urged Tories in the Caerphilly by Election to consider voting Reform to keep the “separatists” out. I’d rather support a so called separatist Party than a racist one
Are Brexiteers also not separatists?
If some Brexiters accept that Cymru can if it wishes separate from other members of the current UK just as the UK separated from other members of EU then that label could apply.
If other Brexiters think that separation only applies on a UK level then ‘hypocrites’ could apply.
Westminster obviously threatened with independence.
They need Wales to stop England disintegrating back into the petty kingdoms.
In the summer of last year I was initially tempted to cast my vote for Labour, simply because in the context of the voting history of the Westminster constituency in which I currently live a vote for Labour seemed the best way to ensure that another Tory was not yet again elected to represent our patch. Certain disobliging words from Jo Stevens in the last couple of weeks before that election prompted me to change my mind, with the consequence that I decided to cast my vote for Plaid. This latest expression of opinion from Ms Stevens reinforces my sense… Read more »
Please leave now Jo. You have been useless for Wales.
I dont believe you or Labour
There is nothing in the HOC Library reply to Liz Saville Roberts that shows that Welsh finances would be better under independence, only that they would be different. They could even be worse. As the response says, that would depend on policy choices and the terms of separation, which I do not expect to be generous.
Plaid Cymru will have to do better than this to convince the people of Wales that our prospects for jobs, pensions, services and taxes would improve under independence.
The Caerffili by-election and next year’s Senedd elections aren’t referendums on independence.
A British nationalist party like Labour, which has habitually relied to the – only we can stop the Tories – ploy now has to wheel out the independence bogeyman ploy.
It would be better for Plaid not to get sidetracked by Labour and point out that the coming elections are not independence referendums..
There’s more than enough to go on as both Labour and Tory [UK] governments have poor to abysmal records when it comes to Cymru and Reform shows that it would almost certainly be even worse.
I agree the Caerffili by-election is not an independence referendum. Stopping Reform is the priority, and the polls suggest Plaid Cymru is better placed to achieve that there than Welsh Labour, who seem increasingly desperate.
I’d prefer Plaid to promote their own political agenda for improving the lot of the people of Cymru, to be positive and explain why they are the best option for those who have voted Labour in the past than rather than play the stop Reform game.
Stop Reform plays into Reform’s hands they can further avoid answering difficult questions about governance and continue with the – we must be right because the parties who want to ‘stop’ you voting Reform have all failed you in the past.
I agree there needs to be a positive alternative to Reform, but Plaid Cymru is not capable of offering that.
What positive alternative would you like to see a party offer?
One that consistently backs the interests of ordinary people against elites, workers against bosses, tenants against landlords. Plaid Cymru does not does this consistently. ‘Making Wales Work’ sees the central problem as the ‘ownership gap’, but not in terms of the ownership of the means of production by capitalists just in terms of these capitalists not being Welsh. It centres its proposals on building a ‘Welsh Mittlestand’, small and medium Welsh capitalists subordinated to the rhythms of global capitalism. Exploitation is fine as long as those doing it claim Welsh nationality. Or take Rhun ap Iorwerth’s speech to the recent… Read more »
There doesn’t appear to be any party that completely fulfills your criteria for support in the Caerffili by- election.
Are you hoping that Corbyn and Sultana won’t tear each other apart before the next general election? Or at least until they can both agree on a permanent name for their party.
No party is completely satisfactory in the Caerffili by-election, but if I had a vote there I would this time cast it for Plaid Cymru.
Don’t just point to Wales’s dependency, grovel in it, accept it. Ask why Wales is in this dependent mode, and vow to get rid of it.
Try saying something coherent.
That clearly applies to you.
Aside from ranting about supposed evils of capitalism, what’s your plan – more moaning?
The combination of stagnant living standards, failing services, environmental degradation, increasing geo-political conflict should make the limits and risks of capitalism obvious. An approach narrowly focused on Wales cannot solve global problems. We have to take a wider view, especially on questions like climate collapse or war. The best traditions of popular struggle in Wales have done that, such as the women’s peace petition in the 1920s, solidarity with the Spanish Republic, or the march to Greenham Common. On economic policy, Westminster’s policies have rarely aligned with Welsh needs, certainly not over the last half century. There is a good… Read more »
An immediate implication of taking a wider than Welsh view is to recognise that defeating the austerity that limits the Welsh budget will require action with allies across the UK. Without that a Plaid Cymru government would face the same constraints that Welsh Labour does today.
I remember you now.
You think change can only come when everyone chooses to head for your Utopia rather than smaller groups setting off independently.
I can see your poin.t dictating the destination of an ocean liner at your defined Utopia is much neater and satisfying than having a flotilla of smaller boats heading in the same direction but for a miscellany of Utopias.
.
It’s about practicalities, not Utopias. The prospects for any independent Wales without a good negotiated settlement with England are poor. But Westminster is oppressive not just to the UK’s non-English nations but also to the large majority of people within England, whether viewed geographically or by class (London has one of the highest poverty rates in the UK after accounting for housing costs).
So why not seek alliances across the UK to challenge the power of Westminster? Only nationalist utopianism can make that seem a bad idea.
Agreed. No one takes Jo Stevens seriously; but Plaid doesn’t convince either. In ‘22 independent research was published showing Wales’ fiscal deficit could (not would) be circa 20% of official estimates; but by his own admission, the author based his conclusions on some pretty heroic assumptions. The answer is probably somewhere in between at 7-8 billion per annum. How that will be funded is the question that must be answered.
People who argue that Wales couldn’t go it alone need to know that UK plc is 3 trillion in debt it’s effectively bankrupt a failed state
The Uk can’t go bankrupt it has a sovereign currency
Labour have assisted the British government stealing from Wales and then lying to us for decades.
Why would this speech be any different?
First off no country has the RIGHT TO RULE ANOTHER COUNTRY England conquered Wales that is no bloody different today than what Russia is trying to do and Jo Stevens should keep her mouth shut English people always say they keep us and Scotland if that was so and we would be a drain on English money they would have got rid off us out of the U K there is nothing in the U K for Wales
What a rubbish report! Where’s the back up to those figures? How do we know exactly what is included? How was oil & gas distributed geographically? Someone has just thrown a load of numbers at some tables without any evidence or detail!
Secretary of State for Cymru = Cymru’s worst enemy.
Maybe HM Treasury should focus on using its iron first control of the UK economy to get all parts of the UK economy punching above their weight instead of abusing this power to enrich its own patch and gaslighting the rest.
*Iron fist control
Those with imperial mindsets always presume that the colonized’s priorities will be the same as their own – a preoccupation with material gains and losses. But they are mistaken. Peoples value freedom in its own right, and if the time is right, they will sometimes go for it anyway irrespective of whether or not it will bring them immediate comfort or advantage. History testifies to this being true throughout the centuries. Ireland under continued British rule would have stayed on its knees for ever. Wales now has to contemplate throwing off its own shackles of dependency if it wants regain… Read more »
Since the end of WWII 65 countries have gained their independence from Britain, very many of these poor, dependendent, as a result of colonial exploitation. However none of them to date have asked to be returned under British rule.
We need an independent body/auditor to analyse the full costs of independence – for good or for bad. I don’t see how our weak economy and productivity could support us as an independent nation (even with the Crown Estate etc) but I would love to be convinced otherwise. Oh, and don’t forget that, yes, the UK government is in huge debt but just because we declare independence it doesn’t mean that we are not liable for some of that too. Crackers to think Westminster (or any international court) would let us flounce off unburdened.
No-one disputes Wales’s current dependency Mike. But the dependency culture will not go away by continuing to go along with it, accepting as inevitable, fearing it so much that we never have the courage to do anything about it. I’m sure they would have had this debate in all the 65 countries which eventually chose self rule…
‘ it doesn’t mean that we are not liable for some of that too.’
If Cymru is ‘liable’ for a share of the UK debt then an independent England would be ‘liable’ for Cymru’s share of UK assets as well.
Based on populations about a twentieth of UK assets in England.
Reality based on previous examples of countries gaining independence would suggest that both sides would ‘flounce off’ honours and debts even.
Each debt needs to be assessed individually. Money borrowed for HS2 shouldn’t be repaid by an independent Wales. But a population share of money borrowed to pay for Covid furlough probably should be. And the same must apply to state assets. An independent Wales should continue to “own” 5% of Buckingham Palace and the Westminster estate.
But surely we’re entitled to a share of the UK’s assets as well – or do they all belong to England?
Labour UK can’t even agree on the figure, Starmer quoted £7000 earlier today. either way the figures are rigged, they don’t take into account, that an independent Wales would charge market value for water going over the border, all surplus energy would be sold to the highest bidder rather than being given away for free, all money raised by crown estate in Wales would stay here, all taxes raised here would stay here Wales would also stop paying for English infrastructure projects and other non devolved payments and an independent Wales could raise its own debt just like every other… Read more »