Rural Wales ‘there to be won’ as poll shows fractured electorate

Rural Welsh voters are “there to be won”, a campaign group has said after a poll showed a fractured electorate ahead of May’s Senedd election.

A survey of 1,000 people in Wales’s most rural seats showed no party was supported by more than a quarter of voters, with Plaid Cymru leading on 22.3%.

Reform UK, which expects to do well in the Senedd elections, was in second place among rural voters on 16.7% while the Greens had surged to 14.5% after standing few candidates in 2021.

Labour had slipped to fourth place on 13.5%, although it has not traditionally done well in rural Wales, while the Conservatives trailed in fifth despite performing strongly last time.

The poll, commissioned by the Country Land and Business Association (CLA), also found less than half of voters thought Labour, Reform or the Greens understood or respected rural areas, while Plaid was trusted by 63%.

Victoria Bond, director of CLA Cymru, said the poll showed rural Wales was “not owned by any party”.

She said: “It is there to be won. Any party with a serious plan for rural Wales will find support. Those who treat it as a nice place for a walk will not.”

Listing concerns about families being priced out of their villages and businesses struggling with rising costs, she said it was “getting harder to stay and harder to build a future”.

She said: “Rural Wales is not being listened to. A third of the country lives outside the cities, yet too many feel shut out of the decisions that shape their lives.”

The poll comes as Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth prepares to address his party’s spring conference, where he will pitch the Senedd election as a straight fight between Plaid and Reform.

He is expected to say: “Friends, for Labour, the party is over – and so the election in May will be a choice between two contrasting futures.

“Tolerance or division. Progress or decay. Defiance or deference. Culture or ignorance. Humanity or indifference. Plaid or Reform.”

Reform UK Senedd member James Evans said Plaid Cymru had “enabled” the “immense damage” Labour had done to Welsh farming communities.

He said: “Plaid has kept Labour in power, allowing their budgets to pass, turning a blind eye to rural Wales and endorsed the Climate Change Committee’s recommendations to cut livestock numbers.

“Only Reform can be trusted to champion the interests of rural Wales and to get off the backs of farmers so they can do what they do best: produce high-quality food.”