Russia and Ukraine trade long-range strikes as peace talks enter ‘critical’ week

Ukraine and Russia targeted each other with long-range strikes, officials said on Monday, amid continuing uncertainty about whether an agreement to stop their more than three-year war is within reach at the start of what America’s top diplomat called a “very critical” week.

The Russian Defence Ministry said its forces downed 119 Ukrainian drones overnight, most of them over Russia’s Bryansk border region.

In Ukraine, air raid sirens rang out across the country on Monday morning. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

Unclear

The outcome of a push by US President Donald Trump’s administration to swiftly end the fighting remains unclear, clouded by conflicting claims and doubts about how far each side might be willing to compromise amid deep hostility and mistrust.

The clock is ticking on Washington’s engagement in efforts to resolve Europe’s biggest conflict since the Second World War that has cost tens of thousands of lives.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that this week will be “very critical”.

The US needs to “make a determination about whether this is an endeavour that we want to continue to be involved in”, he said on NBC’s Meet The Press.

American military aid has been crucial for Ukraine’s war effort, and further help could be at risk if the Trump administration walks away from attempts to end the war.

Mr Trump said at the weekend that he harbours doubts about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sincerity in pursuing a deal, because Russian forces have continued to strike civilian areas of Ukraine with cruise and ballistic missiles while the talks have proceeded.

But on Friday, the US president described a brokered settlement on the war as “close”.

Peace

Western European officials have accused the Kremlin of dragging its feet on peace talks so that Russian forces, which are bigger than Ukraine’s and have battlefield momentum, can capture more Ukrainian land.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed the war in a phone call with Mr Rubio on Sunday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

The two diplomats focused on “consolidating the emerging prerequisites for starting negotiations”, a statement said, without offering further details.

Russia has effectively rejected a US proposal for an immediate and full 30-day halt in the fighting by imposing far-reaching conditions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine has accepted it.

A French diplomatic official said at the weekend that Mr Trump, Mr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed “to pursue in the coming days the work of convergence” to obtain “a solid ceasefire”.

The diplomat said a truce is a “prior condition for a peace negotiation that respects the interest of Ukraine and the Europeans”.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has baulked at the possibility of surrendering land to Russia in return for peace, which Washington has indicated could be necessary.

A key point of leverage for Ukraine could be a deal with Washington that grants access to Ukraine’s critical mineral wealth.

Progress

Ukraine and the US have made progress on a mineral agreement, with both sides agreeing that American aid provided so far to Kyiv will not be taken into account under the terms of the deal, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Sunday.

“We have good progress,” he said after talks with US Treasury Under Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington.

“The main thing is that we clearly defined our red lines: The agreement must comply with Ukraine’s constitution, legislation, and European commitments, and must be ratified by Parliament,” Mr Shmyhal said.

The war that broke out after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022 has developed a significant international dimension, further complicating negotiations.

On Monday, Mr Putin thanked North Korea for sending what the US estimates as thousands of troops to help defeat Ukraine, as well as allegedly supplying artillery ammunition.

Iran has also helped Russia in the war, with Shahed drones, and China has sold Russia machinery and microelectronics that Moscow can use to make weapons, Western officials say.

The US and Europe have been Kyiv’s biggest backers.